NL50 TPTK faces AI push on river.

[Panic__NL]

Villian is 50/12/1.4 over only 57 hands.
I think his line is weird, but do we call his river push?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $58.55
UTG+1: $64.55
CO: $8.15
Button: $47.45
Hero: $98.90
BB: $93.85

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif
3 folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($4.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.25</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $14.25</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($33, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($33, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button is all-in $31.2</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $95.4


My line of thought was as follows, his reraise on the flop could mean a lot. Flush draws, sets, an Ace with a lower kicker. I dont attach to much value to his AF over only 50+ hands and being in a blind battle this could well be a total bluff.
So I call his reraise and see what he does on the turn. He checks behind, he could do this with a FH hoping I am on a FD, by checking he gives me a chance to the second best hand and get more value. Or he is still on a FD and takes the freecard.
On the river the flush does not hit, I check and he moves AI for a PSB.
If he thinks I am weak, which is pretty obvious, and he has a monster, why does he bet so much, because he doesn't want a call. If he thinks I am weak and he has a monster he would make a lower bet in the hope I call with something like AsXs.
So his AI on the river made no sense to me and that is why I called. Does it make any sense to you?

[samwallistea]

Personally I would have reraised flop, probably shoved depending on chip stacks, hate being OOP to a guy like this.
As played yeah Id probably call this bet I could see his way of thinking if he's got flush draw "wow two checks but Ive got nothing Ill move allin on a bluff maybe he'll fold".

[greggg230]

Looks like a busted flush draw to me since he checked the turn. Maybe he has a monster like pocket 10s, but obv. you're not gonna fold out of fear of that. I seriously doubt he'd check the turn with a set or two pair.

[Tevac]

Odd indeed - Given that he plays a lot of hands he might have JT preflop, which would be in line with his stats to call your preflop raise.
At the flop he considers your bet being a bit weak to fold given that he has a middle pair with an ok kicker and his reraise should give him enough knowledge about your hand (or he is just overconfident). Once you call, he knows that you have at least one Ace. With the turn he now has a set, but wants to slowplay it, therefore checks.

On the river, he can be sure that you dont have a flush and also probably not a set of aces and when you call, he is going all-in to extract maximum value.
....

Just my opinion - now all the Pooh-bahs can cruzify me :-)

Regards
Tevac

[Panic__NL]

He will only extract max value if I have a good hand, there is no reason to think so, cause of my check on both turn and river, or is there?

[Tevac]

[ QUOTE ]
He will only extract max value if I have a good hand, there is no reason to think so, cause of my check on both turn and river, or is there?

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point (and I think it is a solid one), why should you just call on the turn with a good hand - still, you called his reraise on the flop, so I would put you on AA or two pairs.

I see enough players who would call all-in on the river with just this hoping that the villain is just bluffing.

[Wintergedaerm]

I would never call this on the flop, id either shove or fold.

[Panic__NL]

[ QUOTE ]
I would never call this on the flop, id either shove or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

because?

[Andynan]

With a 33$ pot on the turn there is no reason for him not to bet 15$ at least to get you pot-commited if he had AT or a set of 6's turned FH. I think we see two connected or one gapped spades like 9s8s or 9s7s a lot here, his flop RR in position was intended to fold you if you missed and allow him to take a free card if he wanted it. Nothing got there and after checking to him twice I think you have to call this and feel good, i expect you to be good here 50% at least, maybe more as you beat all reasonable aces but AT.

[Panic__NL]

I like that thought about the turn, result is the same, call river.

[Andynan]

Forgot to mention if he has a naked Ten, and is weak as hell he might check to make sure the flush doesnt hit, and then go all in. In his mind he is disguising his turned trips and making sure his equity is 100% rather than 80%, by taking a strange line he is likelier to get called by a strong Ace too.

[Panic__NL]

would he reraise flop then, if he is so weak?

[justhetip]

Tevac makes some good points here, as villains do tend to follow up their reraises, especially if you look so weak. Especially if he is semi-aggressive, there seems no reason for him to slow down. Any hand he is representing would want to shut down a flush draw, which would be a decent play if he is holding something like a flush + inside straight draw to increase the chance of you folding.
I don't know, it all looks very strange to me, and as others said you may be good 50% of the time, so I think I call here. I wonder which 50% it was? In my experience, very few do the all in river bluff at these stakes because the line looks so fishy.

[matrix]

shove flop over the re-raise.

as played river is a tough spot as we might well have induced a bluff we probably ought to call.

Tho lots of maniac villains are a lot less maniacal when it comes to big river bets and tend not to go nuts with their whole stacks without a decent hand.

I think this is Tx often AT sometimes and Ax sometimes. (something like AQ mistakenly value betting) because our hand is quite strong and beats some of his range and we have pretty much induced a bluff I would lean towards calling - but not being happy about it.

[Panic__NL]

can you explain the obvious flop shove matrix?

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
can you explain the obvious flop shove matrix?

[/ QUOTE ]

we are OOP and have one pair.

Villain is a maniac bluffy overaggro type of player. If we push the flop over his raise most of the time he folds.

Vs overaaggro donks fight fire with fire - They almost always give up when faced with a BIG raise.

Our hand is goot but the flop texture is super wet (broadway connected and two tone) he might well call off with a fd. He might call off his stack with AQ and obv he calls with things we are behind. We gots the Ace /images/graemlins/spade.gif so that makes a fd less likely as one of his holdings and also less likely to hit as there is now one less out for it.

Basically we are very often ahead, BUT being OOP with a vulnerable hand vs an overaggro villain on a wet board is not a good place to be - there are a ton of cards that might kill the action or force us to either fold the best hand or make a really tough call on a later street.

It's +EV to snap it off on the flop and most often take down a ~$23 pot. It might be slightly higher EV to flat call and let villain bluff off more but if it is there's not a lot in it and while I'm not scared of making tough decisions at the table I prefer to take the easier road and keep things simple where I can.

[bozzer]

matrix,

is 50/12/1.4 overaggro?

[Panic__NL]

[ QUOTE ]
matrix,

is 50/12/1.4 overaggro?

[/ QUOTE ]

my question as well.

[fees]

instacalllalalalaall

[Panic__NL]

you got to love those 1 word responses

[relativity_x]

[ QUOTE ]
is 50/12/1.4 overaggro?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, his raises from ep are to be respected. This villain would save himself a lot of money by cutting down on the hands he limps from ep.

.

[bozzer]

btw i call this.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
matrix,

is 50/12/1.4 overaggro?

[/ QUOTE ]

total aggression factor (the third number) is number of times bets or raises divided by number of times called.

The higher the VPIP the more hands are played and the more the agression number gets diluted.

this guy has been dealt 57 hands played 28 of them and has bet or raised more often than he has called.

This is twice as aggressive as a player who is playing 25/12/1.4

[Panic__NL]

1.4 is his postflop AF, but your reasoning still holds.

[ciro bonano]

Well, if I bet/raise 10% of my hands (postflop), call 5% and fold 85% I still have an 1.5 AF (10%/5%) but obv my bets/raises mean that I have the goods. That's of course extreme, but because of stuff like this I never know if 60VPIP and 1.5 AF is aggressive or not..

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
1.4 is his postflop AF,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

how villains play postflop &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; how they play preflop.

From the stats provided (50/12/1.4) we get the impression that villain plays too many hands passively preflop, tends to only raise his good hands - and postflop he is overaggressive and bluffy. (he is bettng and raising more often postflop than calling. As noone makes hands more often than they don't we can assume that he is bluffing a lot)

Maybe he folds most of the hands he plays and only bets/raises his better hands postflop and is a lot less aggro than I am making out.

We don't have that info tho. The best we can do as poker players is to follow what info we have and use it to make educated guesses about our opponents - ime most 50/10/1.5 types are bluffy over playing over agressive in the wrong spots kind of players.

[ciro bonano]

matrix, thanks for your precise explanation.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe he folds most of the hands he plays and only bets/raises his better hands postflop and is a lot less aggro than I am making out.

[/ QUOTE ]
So if AF possible has this flaw, why aren't we looking at postflop bet/raise percentages instead of AF?

[AFennewald]

grunch This is a missed flush draw alot so I call the river. I would rather shove the flop instead of call though.

[whyherro]

I think his range is something like AT, PP that hit a set, worse aces and busted draws. Definitely calling river.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
matrix,

is 50/12/1.4 overaggro?

[/ QUOTE ]

total aggression factor (the third number) is number of times bets or raises divided by number of times called.

The higher the VPIP the more hands are played and the more the agression number gets diluted.

this guy has been dealt 57 hands played 28 of them and has bet or raised more often than he has called.

This is twice as aggressive as a player who is playing 25/12/1.4

[/ QUOTE ]
Matrix, the above is an important concept. However, it does risk a bit of oversimplification. If the PF-loose player's WTSD number is lower than the PF-tight player's then these aggression stats may be very similar. I.e., one player gets to postflop with a wider range but folds a lot to get to a similar postflop range when he does play on.

Of course its not as simple as PF-loose player's WTSD number being half that of PF-tight player's - he won't fold some % when he can check it down.

[Panic__NL]

Matrix is this sexy?


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $39.25
Hero: $50.95
CO: $155.15
Button: $57.25
SB: $64.75
BB: $26.95

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif ($3.75, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $9</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $49.2</font>, BB folds.
Uncalled bets: $40.2 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $21.75

[matrix]

as long as we have a read that BB is aggro and is raising our flop bets sometimes without great hands then yes. Vs some players this is chip suicide as they onl ever raise flops with great made hands.

33/99/TT/KK/AA call you here everything else folds more or less.

This is actually a good thing because we are offering villain &gt;3:1 odds here - he has ~$15 behind and the pot is $38. It's correct for him to call with a naked fd, a gutshot draw + 2 OC's, and he folds these hands and makes a large FTOP mistake most of the time.

However it is not correct for him to call with TPTK and this is one of the hands in his calling range I think.

Our hand is good but vulnerable and most of the time we snap off a ~$15(60BB) pot, which is a very nice return thanks.

So yes - sexy time.

[Panic__NL]

o forgot to give his stats, he is 20/9/5.5 over 80 hands.
So yes he is an agro, would probably have reraised AA-QQ.

what is FTOP?

[bozzer]

Fundementalist Theorum of Poker. It's related to the Christian Right in America.

[Panic__NL]

k I am familiar with the theorum, but not with the abreviation.

[XHitman014]

[ QUOTE ]
Matrix is this sexy?


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $39.25
Hero: $50.95
CO: $155.15
Button: $57.25
SB: $64.75
BB: $26.95

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif ($3.75, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $9</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $49.2</font>, BB folds.
Uncalled bets: $40.2 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $21.75

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it...are we just folding out worse hands? Seems like we're allowing villian to play perfectly here.

[Panic__NL]

Let me see if I get this right, I doubt it, but one day I will get there.

Against his range TT-99,33,AcJc,ATs,KQs,ATo,KQo pokerstove says:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

36,630 games 0.005 secs 7,326,000 games/sec

Board: 3d 9c Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.820% 59.82% 00.00% 21912 0.00 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 40.180% 40.18% 00.00% 14718 0.00 { TT-99, 33, AcJc, ATs, KQs, ATo, KQo }


So he gets 40% equity and the pot is offering him 1:2 (33%) equity. He is right to call with this range.
But he is not right to call with TPTK, what he probably will do, and he is right to call with GSSD + overs and a FD, but he probably will fold some of those. So the hands I am flipping with I am winning equity because he folds.
Against sets I am a huge underdog and he wont fold them.

But given his range and the potodds the move is good.

I hope this is right, but please correct me if I am wrong.