Help me with a river plan, if you would... NL50 Set

[ama0330]

Villain is 30/3/2.7 over 250, no specific reads or history. My image is pretty bland, playing tight/standard.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $49.50
BB: $49.25
UTG: $49.90
Hero (CO): $53.05
BTN: $153.23

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, BTN calls $2.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7http://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, BTN calls $3.00

Turn: ($10.75) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.20</font>, BTN calls $7.20

River: ($25.15) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
Hero....

[C4LL4W4Y]

Bet $16 and fold to a shove. I think we lose too much value from a c/c where he checks behind (unless he's shown river aggression), and I also think that only better hands will shove the river.

[mugatu668]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet $16 and fold to a shove. I think we lose too much value from a c/c where he checks behind (unless he's shown river aggression), and I also think that only better hands will shove the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
i like this a lot

[ama0330]

Is there much of a difference between betting $16, and check calling up to $16?

[C4LL4W4Y]

Depends on how likely it is that villain will fire river when checked to. If it's very likely, a c/c of close to a psb is even good. If it's not likely, then a c/c is obviously horrible because we're losing value from worse hands that would have called our bet, and spewing $ to hands that beat us.

[wikemang]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet $16 and fold to a shove. I think we lose too much value from a c/c where he checks behind (unless he's shown river aggression), and I also think that only better hands will shove the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Solid line

[cynic757]

He has AQ the majority of the time here. Bet the river for value.

[AFennewald]

I'd bet like 20 and reluctanly call a shove.

[AFennewald]

I'm not sure why you would ck call. There is not much he could be bluffing here after calling you twice. If he has AQ the result is the same either way. If he has a one pair A he probebly won't bet but he might call.

[TJgniL]

I agree w/ most of the replies that he will call with a wider range than he'll bet with. Because of the board he'll likely check behind w/ AK (very possible w/ his PrF AF), AJ, and weaker 2 pr holdings but will also call a bet with them. I bet $15 and fold to a shove, even though you'll be getting good odds I don't think he would shove the river after you've shown aggression throughout (your line looks like AQ, set, or even KJh).

c/c = lose value to 2 pr, AK, etc. Still pay off flush.
b/f = Called by above hands. Pay about the same to the flush.

[Maneh]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet like 20 and reluctanly call a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

[wslee00]

what's w/ the weak flop bet?

[jessyj07]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there much of a difference between betting $16, and check calling up to $16?

[/ QUOTE ]yes, he can check behind which is what we don't want.

[kurto]

So, everyone's plan (who says to bet and call a shove) insures that anyone playing a flush draw against you WILL definitely get paid so they should always call flop bets against you... because you will pay them off.

[sightless]

[ QUOTE ]
So, everyone's plan (who says to bet and call a shove) insures that anyone playing a flush draw against you WILL definitely get paid

[/ QUOTE ]

If i have a set... yea

[Chomp]

I think betting river and then calling a shove is awful. Like, absolutely awful. There is no way on God's Green Earth that we are getting shoved on by &lt; a flush. Never. And I don't care what odds we're getting. We still have half our stack intact if we just fold and doing so is desperately important to one's overall wr.

All just IM(strongly held)O.

BTW, I call the river a lot when shoved on. Hence, I suck and am stuck in uNL hell for life.

[barryc83]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there much of a difference between betting $16, and check calling up to $16?

[/ QUOTE ]

Theres a huge huge difference. This guys calling range is way bigger than his betting range. He's probably not gonna bet his A but he'll surely call a bet with it.