Big draw, getting correct odds to play here?

[Stan Loh]

No reads on villian.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

CO ($12)
Button ($17.65)
SB ($9.50)
Hero ($39.90)
UTG ($7.85)
MP ($35.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.60) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $12.75 (All-In)</font>, Hero?
.

[holdme]

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=td+3d+4c&amp;d=&amp;h=qd+4d%0D%0Ats+tc
worst case scenario

[samwallistea]

I think you were correct to lead but personally don't like the 3bet here, just a call for me.
Pot is 18.85, 8.75 to call to win 26.60 so lil better than 2 to 1, personally Id call this one as any Q, 4 or diamond will most likely be giving you the nuts. Thats 14 outs, ~56% of improving by river.

[C4LL4W4Y]

Getting better than 2-1 against a shortstack, I call.

[relativity_x]

I'd say the villain has a set of 3s/4s or a pair between 55-99 here. If so you're a 35% dog to win. If you fold here, you lose 4.25, if you call you'll win 25.6*.35=8.96 and lose 16.64 the other 65%. So folding results in -4.25 and calling results in -7.68. I think you have to fold.

edit:Also, his minraise is scary here, so I'd just flat call. From TOP, it says to semibluff when out of position and take the free card when in position. Well, you had the chance to be the last to act on the flop, so just call his minraise to get to the turn.

[samwallistea]

Why do you think he has a set when there is no read on the guy. At this level he could have a lot more hands than a set or PP

[relativity_x]

1) he limped preflop
2) he minraised
3) he pushed to our 4bet

We're not ahead of this guy, we're even money at best. Our best case scenario is that this guy has 55-99 or like jt, and then we're even money. Other wise, we're 30% dogs.

[C4LL4W4Y]

Which is why the flop 3b is terrible. Once he makes it, though, hero's getting odds to draw to a naked flush draw.

[Stan Loh]

That's some very good calculations &amp; points relativity_x. I think without reads it's too often villian wakes up with a set here. I think the best we can be at this point is a slight favourite to make our hand by the river so I don't think that justify's a call.

[wslee00]

i don't think you have the odds here - ure most likely against a set... which means ure slightly -EV I believe.

[AFennewald]

your math is all messed up. You win the whole pot when you win. Don't have pokerstove here but I cant't think or a reasonable range that would make this a fold. you are getting better than 2-1 (8.25 in 18.35 pot) so you need like 31% equity.

[relativity_x]

You're right. I just noticed that myself. If you fold, you lose 4.75. If you call and win, you only lose 12.75 and win 25.60.

fold$ev:-4.75
call$ev=25.60*.35-12.75*.65=0.67

so, I believe this is a very marignal call based on his range. I'm sorry for the error.

[Rant]

Flop reraise is bad. Should have just called. You aren't going to get him to fold very often with the reraise. You are probably behind right now. No reason to put in more $.

You should call the all-in. You have at least 11 outs (9 flush, 2 fours) on the turn and river which is good enough.

[wslee00]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop reraise is bad. Should have just called. You aren't going to get him to fold very often with the reraise. You are probably behind right now. No reason to put in more $.

You should call the all-in. You have at least 11 outs (9 flush, 2 fours) on the turn and river which is good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]
he min-raised that flop - 3-bet was definitely in order here.

In addition, from the action - it pretty much looks like only his flush outs are good.