Spewing chips - any suggestions?

[gmac]

I came to the realisation today that I am spewing chips when it comes to the following type of hand (50NL):

I raise KQo in CO and the Button calls. Flop comes 8TK with 2 hearts... I bet 2/3rds of the pot and the Button re-raises me. Here I then get confused and call, then check turn, he bets again about $12 into $16 pot and I fold.

I'm guessing I should not be calling a re-raise if I plan on checking the turn. It is in situations like this that I notice the importance of position - is there anything you can suggest to think about that'll stop me doing this and do any of you have this problem?

I think I just think that the person re-raising me could be on a draw of some kind or have KJ etc and would they really call with KT preflop for two pair with 26/15 stats? I don't think they re-raise a set here either on the flop and to flat call with AK pre is bad too. The turn card that came was an Ace by the way.

Any other trouble situations you can think of that I should avoid?

Is this an instance of Reverse Implied Odds that I have just been reading about? If so, how do you combat this? Simply fold on the flop after getting re-raised if you are not going to know where you are at on the turn?

[corsakh]

Fold or raise.

[gmac]

Thanks for the constructive reply *sigh*.

[corsakh]

You should fold. If he is over aggressive and does it with any two cards or a draw, raise.

[greggg230]

If you and villain are both pretty deep, I'm probably going to fold without a read. Too often you'll see a set, two pair, etc. You don't want to put your whole stack on the line with just TPGK.

[Vyse]

Or you could b/f the turn.

[gmac]

Thanks folks, if he just flat called, do I bet the turn again incase he is on a draw or do I check-call turn and river bets by him?

[Quester]

Sometimes it is OK to call a raise or bet on a street even if you have no intention of putting money in on further streets. NLTAP has a small section about this. There will be situations where you should call just to see how your opponent acts down the road. Sometimes your opponent will stop the action himself.

If your opponent raises c-bets too often, then you should 3-bet him on the flop. This can be high variance, but effective. In my opinion, you should also 3-bet if your opponent is laggy in the example you provided (top pair on a board with 2 hearts). A stop-n-go deal my be effective here as well; call the flop raise, lead the turn. If he's raising light, he probably won't continue.

I'd avoid saying things like "would a 26/15 call preflop with KT?" Instead, you should think about the probability that he has a hand like KT based on current and past information. He most certainly could call with KT preflop; the question is what is the probability that he does so (there are 2 Kings accounted for) given the action.

[gmac]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd avoid saying things like "would a 26/15 call preflop with KT?" Instead, you should think about the probability that he has a hand like KT based on current and past information. He most certainly could call with KT preflop; the question is what is the probability that he does so (there are 2 Kings accounted for) given the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is an interesting perspective, and one that I feel I don't use enough, if at all. I tend not to assign probability percentages etc as I'm not really a mathematically involved player, and although I could argue that I have a King and there is one on the board so what are the chances of him having one, I would then counter this by saying, but chances are he probably does to make this raise and if so, what holding warrants a raise from him? Two pair is definitely a possibility here, or JJ or QQ cold called preflop, but I think a set calls the flop. I have tried to get rid of my weak tendencies but it's hard at 50NL to put people on hands as they are capable of anything at any time during a hand.

Can you expand at all on your idea of probabilities and how you use it in your game?

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
That is an interesting perspective, and one that I feel I don't use enough, if at all. I tend not to assign probability percentages etc as I'm not really a mathematically involved player, and although I could argue that I have a King and there is one on the board so what are the chances of him having one, I would then counter this by saying, but chances are he probably does to make this raise and if so, what holding warrants a raise from him? Two pair is definitely a possibility here, or JJ or QQ cold called preflop, but I think a set calls the flop. I have tried to get rid of my weak tendencies but it's hard at 50NL to put people on hands as they are capable of anything at any time during a hand.

Can you expand at all on your idea of probabilities and how you use it in your game?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm certainly not an expert here (maybe one will chime in), but:

1. It's OK to make guesses at the tables, you shouldn't have to know that the odds of your opponent holding any PP preflop is around 5.9%.

2. I think session review is a very good place to practice with probabilities, both in terms of your own hand (odds of completing your hand) and in terms of your opponent's ranges. If you do it enough in review, you'll notice situations where odds are the same in your play so eventually your table estimations will be more accurate.

3. Counting does become helpful when narrowing down hand ranges. In this example, let's say if your opponent has a K he'll only have another broadway card with it. That means: he can have KK 1 way, AK 8 ways, KQ 6 ways, KJ 8 ways, and KT 6 ways.

4. You should discount the results from counting based on preflop play, but don't completely exclude anything unless you have a good reason. If a player will ALWAYS raise KK behind you, then that is a good reason to discount it fully. But I wouldn't because you run into weird plays all the time. We notice from counting that AK and KJ are equally as likely given the board, but we can discount AK somewhat because he may 3-bet preflop with them. Sometimes he won't though. So I'd say he could have AK 4 ways instead of 8, making KJ more probable. Same thing with KT, he is more likely to fold preflop so I'd make it 3 ways instead of 6. By discounting KK, AK, and KT, we are ahead of his hands that contain a K with another broadway card.

You could do similar analysis for other holdings like a set or JJ/QQ.

[gmac]

That's VERY interesting. What do you mean by 'ways' though? Sorry if it is obvious, lol.

[wslee00]

[ QUOTE ]
That's VERY interesting. What do you mean by 'ways' though? Sorry if it is obvious, lol.

[/ QUOTE ]
he's just talking about all the possible KT combinations, i.e., KcTc,KdTd,KcTd, etc...

[gmac]

What about when it comes to the pocket pairs like QQ, JJ or even TT or 88 which could have hit a set. Unlike the high cards of AK which could be 8 ways, pocket pairs can only have 6ways am I right? Does this not skew the probability when you compare it to the likes of the work carried out assessing the broadway card probabilities?

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
What about when it comes to the pocket pairs like QQ, JJ or even TT or 88 which could have hit a set. Unlike the high cards of AK which could be 8 ways, pocket pairs can only have 6ways am I right? Does this not skew the probability when you compare it to the likes of the work carried out assessing the broadway card probabilities?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, 6 ways for a pocket pair. If it's TT or 88, it's 3 ways since 1 card is accounted for. But you shouldn't discount TT or 88 at all like you would with KT. JJ/QQ would probably get discounted since your opponent would probably 3-bet with them.

[James81]

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could b/f the turn.

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