50NL Flopped set against a decent villian

[BevillTheDevil]

Villian is 22/12/2 after 1052 hands, He ispretty decent, im pretty sure villian 2p2 some, seems to mix things up a good bit sometimes seems aggro sometimes seems really weak/passive. But im not concerned so much about the flop. The turn tho I was wondering whats the best line here?? I just wanta see others thoughts and see if they agree with mine

No limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $47.50
UTG+1: $53.58
Hero: $103.50
Button: $78.22
SB: $99.50
BB: $74.05

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($10, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $9.5</font>, SB calls, 2 folds.

Turn: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($29, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero ?

[deal]

You're both pretty deep and that is leading me to check behind here for pot control. You are likely infront, but if not I'd much rather take a free card than have to call a shove for a stack, especially with position on the river and a good chance of filling up. Villain called a very stiff flop bet and doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

[Kimo White Devil]

stack 99 or 44 gonna be tough with the flush coming out. You cant worry about it, but you have to worry about a 4-flush card on river, so bet good here, so if he pushes youll have odds to call and fill up.

I stack/go broke here everytime and feel good about it

[ev_slave]

I think you have to bet this... you do NOT want to let a 4th spade peel off. The chances of that are higher than your filling up. If he's holding the ace of spades, he'll probably call a reasonable bet, so that's a draw you need to charge him for.

[TheSalche]

A lot of money is going in the river here regardless, I think AK is a possible (but unlikely) hold that shouldn't be discounted although AQ and AJ spades are more likely. If you bet 23 or so here and he shoves you do have to call, but that doesn't make betting +EV.

Pot control is goot, check behind and call a nice sized river bet, you may be able to induce a bluff this way too.

[deal]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to bet this... you do NOT want to let a 4th spade peel off. The chances of that are higher than your filling up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry dude, gonna be pedantic here. If we assume villain holds exactly 1 spade then there are 9 remaining spades in the deck. We can also remove the 4s as that will fill us up. So there are 8 cards we don't want to see.

We can fill up or make quads with any 9, 4, 2 or K = 10 outs.

[Yaboosh]

Why the hell would you not want to bet if you think he has a spade draw? He will call with a spade draw on the turn but not if he doesn't hit on the river. Bet!

[orange]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rt=all&amp;vc=1 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=7169536&amp;page=0&amp;fpart=all &amp;vc=1)

[Yaboosh]

I misunderstood what deal was saying. I see now that he was just arguing with the fact that it is more likely for a spade to come off than us filling up. I thought he was saying it would be proper to check the turn if we thought the villain had a single spade.

[deal]

edit - ya got me /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[BevillTheDevil]

well im sure this villian wouldve 3bet AA pf or atleast raised the flop also probably the same w/ AK. I def think villian could have 99/44, maybe KQ which seems to be tryin to get to sd cheap. But i would think givin the board is pretty drawy villian wouldve bet or thrown in a c/r w/ a set?? There aren't any 2 pair combos that make since for this villian. So after villian c/c im thinkin probably some weak 1 pair hand probably wantin a cheap sd, some type of draw, and possibly slow playin set. From what ive seen him play draws it seems as though he is aggro w/ them when he is the pfr or aggressor in the hand when he is a pf caller seems to play them more passive. And like i said he does seem to mix it up a little so is capable of slow playin hands. I just wanted to add these as my flop thoughts I kinda want more feedback on the turn b4 i continue...

and if it helps my image is probably like 21/18/8

[Ikaika]

orange thanks for posting that link, some really good discussion on that and the HSNL thread you linked. EVERYONE READ IT. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[kaz2107]

why wouldnt u bet here?!?!?! he could have a zillion hands that we totally dominate here. i honestly cant think of one reason that we wouldnt bet here?!?!?! am immissing sumtin?!?? does he honestly only call with a flush draw. that seems completely retarted.

[BevillTheDevil]

well i ended up checkin...I thought this guy was decent enough to raise flop or atleast bet turn if he had a set. Like i said on flop I figured if villian had like TPTK or like AA there wouldve been a raise and i really didnt think villian would take such a passive/weak line w/ these hands. I have seen villian call down w/ draws before and have seen him slow play strong hands so i really felt villian was on a big draw here and probably hit the turn slow playin. I felt if i bet i was probably only gettin called/raised by a better hand. Obv villian could donk off w/ KQ but i think he is good enough to fold that here. This could be a wierd played like JJ/QQ but im sure a bet folds that out as well here on the turn. Maybe i am givin villian too much credit though??

Well the river pairs the board villian makes a weak like 1/2 PSB i raise he calls and has the nut flush...maybe im just being results orienated but i thought a check was goot here???

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
well i ended up checkin...I thought this guy was decent enough to raise flop or atleast bet turn if he had a set. Like i said on flop I figured if villian had like TPTK or like AA there wouldve been a raise and i really didnt think villian would take such a passive/weak line w/ these hands. I have seen villian call down w/ draws before and have seen him slow play strong hands so i really felt villian was on a big draw here and probably hit the turn slow playin. I felt if i bet i was probably only gettin called/raised by a better hand. Obv villian could donk off w/ KQ but i think he is good enough to fold that here. This could be a wierd played like JJ/QQ but im sure a bet folds that out as well here on the turn. Maybe i am givin villian too much credit though??

Well the river pairs the board villian makes a weak like 1/2 PSB i raise he calls and has the nut flush...maybe im just being results orienated but i thought a check was goot here???

[/ QUOTE ]wut exactly do u do when another spade hits and he leads for 2/3rds pot on river?!?!!?

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
wut exactly do u do when another spade hits and he leads for 2/3rds pot on river?!?!!?

[/ QUOTE ]

fold, but the 4th spade hits less often than he fills up

[Emperor Norton]

One thing to consider is that villain is unlikely to hold the ace of spades unless he has the made flush, since he's probably not calling out of the blinds with A9o, and he's probably not floating out of position with AJo. It's hard to imagine that we wouldn't have heard from aces by now. Ergo, the only hands he's likely to be holding with single spades in them are hands like TsTx, or 8s8x. And villain is probably not dumb enough to draw out of position with a one-card ten-high flush draw. On the upside, this means that we can protect our hand VERY effectively against single-spade hands, but the downside is that unless villain is taking a silly line with an underset, our money is going in bad if villain does anything but fold to our bet. The net result is that most of the time we take down a medium-sized pot, and the rest of the time we play a huge pot as a big dog.

[Spanky1974]

I'm not sure about $50NL, but at $25NL bet/call a pot size raise and check/call a pot size bet from the average player, then check when the flush draw hits is almost always the flush. Made hands checkraise the flop. Weak made hands might checkcall the flop, but they aren't calling a big turn bet unless they are complete fish. I usually check behind and call the river bet.

[deal]

I really like how you played this. Even if villain has KQ we are maximising value as he will probably fold to a turn bet but might well bet out on the river.

Nh.