$50NL AKs in the BB. Sweet flop. Flush comes on turn, I R scared.

[knowledgeORbust]

Villain is 64/28/1.42 over 135 hands.
Haven't been paying much attention to this table and have no particular reads on him except he just picked up a couple of small pots.

Pre seems standard. I consider checking the flop, but I cbet frequently here, it's a two-tone flop, so I go for a standard cbet. Turn brings the flush. Should I be protecting my hand here? Should I ever be calling this turn as played?



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero ($90.20)
UTG ($83.20)
Button ($55.90)
SB ($48.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, Button calls $2, SB calls $2.

Flop: ($7.50) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.5</font>, Button calls $4.50, SB folds.

Turn: ($16.50) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $15.5</font>, Hero folds.

[sightless]

bet pot on flop

[knowledgeORbust]

[ QUOTE ]
bet pot on flop

[/ QUOTE ]
How about with JJ+ and AQ? Pot also most of the time with these?

[sightless]

if u cbet on this flop, bet pot or close to it.
If you dont wanna cbet dont bet anything.

[deal]

[ QUOTE ]
bet pot on flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Tough situation - anyone like bet / folding turn, check / fold river unimproved? Or would you say that is spew? Checking here seems like it pretty much hands the pot over regardless of villains holding.

[justhetip]

I'm still not getting these stats, but to me it seems like he is fairly aggressive/plays a lot of hands. If that is right, then I think you are entitled to be raising the turn bet at times because button is likely to have air/ace lower kicker... ace with a heart there often.
It just doesn't seem like how he would play a flush, unless he is savvy enough to realise that your raise from BB is a hand that is likely to have connected well on this flop.
If you don't think he has it now, you should raise this turn I believe, as he's unlikely to bet river unless he hits.

[knowledgeORbust]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm still not getting these stats, but to me it seems like he is fairly aggressive/plays a lot of hands. If that is right, then I think you are entitled to be raising the turn bet at times because button is likely to have air/ace lower kicker... ace with a heart there often.
It just doesn't seem like how he would play a flush, unless he is savvy enough to realise that your raise from BB is a hand that is likely to have connected well on this flop.
If you don't think he has it now, you should raise this turn I believe, as he's unlikely to bet river unless he hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

The numbers are from PokerTracker and PokerAce software.
This Villain is 64/28/1.42 so that means:
He voluntarily puts money in the pot 64% of the time pre.
Raises 28% of the time pre.
And 1.42 is his "Agression Factor" postflop and 1.42 is right around average, maybe a little aggressive.

Yeah, I think I effed this one up. He's got an Ace + heart a lot here I think and I should have shoved turn.

[Chomp]

I think one problem here is that the flop bet size has left us clueless as to villain's range. I'd be more comfortable folding the turn if he'd called a $6.25 flop bet. And fwiw I probably make this bet with most Aces here.

Also, I'm not really happy assuming a fairly aveage villain is bluffing turn here very often. I think it's just as likely he's protecting a weak flush (his preflop numbers make this quite possible).

Finally, I don't know how often average villains plan a float-on-scare-card strategy on this flop. Seems a bit of a long shot - quite a sophisticated move IMO.

So I bet more on flop and proabably c/f turn if villain made big bet.

[Nick C]

Tough spot, and it doesn't help any that, in addition to doing so with hearts, Villain probably would have called the flop bet with any Ax, QJ, JT, QT, 43, 42, 32, and maybe Kx and even 5x.

He seems to mean business with his turn bet, though. I think the fold is all right, but I'm not going to claim that it's a "safe" fold -- you probably are dumping the best hand in this spot a decent chunk of the time versus this Villain. I mean, if he has Ax, he probably thinks it's best, and he probably recognizes that it's vulnerable.

Edit: I guess I should admit that I would agonize and usually call the turn bet, with the plan of making another decision on the river after I see what Villain wants to do there.