Hold on.... wtf... why is he taking THIS line??

[Fiksdal]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $46.50
BB: $63.05
UTG: $43.40
MP: $92.30
CO: $54.45
Hero (BTN): $53.50

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 26/7/3 over 123 hands. He's not very good or anything, but he doesn't get out of line, and most of his bets are for value (apart from whiffed AK cbet and stuff obv.) Apart from limping low pocket pairs and stuff, I'd say he usually plays pretty ABC. (from the amount I have seen of him.)

Some other useful stats of his.:

cbet: 85.71%
CR flop: 0% (0/11)

I've been running 17/14/oo over 30 hands on this table.

I've removed my hole cards here as I believe they will clutter discussion. I'll be posting them later.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt CARDS, LDO (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.25) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.25</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $14.00</font>

1. Give him a range.

2. What is the weakest hand you will shove here?

[losingdonkey]

QJ, KT, 109, AK, QK, 99+

probably would shove top two or better

[justhetip]

Does AQdd count as better than top two? I would also shove this hand.

[Nick C]

I think he probably has a monster. AK is the worst hand I'm expecting to see, and I think frequently it'll be something stronger.

The weakest hand I would shove is 99. And I would be scared.

Edit: I guess I would be torn on T9s or KTs, but I wouldn't have called an UTG raise from this guy with those hands.

[bozzer]

i assume you haven't tangled with him before after cold calling him.

attempted range: 50% of his sets, maybe &lt;25% of his AK,KQ hands, most K+flush draws (so KJ-AK/images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif), and hands which have missed the flop a fair bit, like maybe 25% of his AQ,AJ holdings.

I would shove with any combo with ~10 NUT outs fairly happily.

[derosnec]

he has a 7 pfr, is utg, and is c/r'ing a KT9 flop?

lol. i think you'll see a set a lot.

[Genz]

He isn't raising much preflop. So he'll be pretty tight from UTG. I can't believe he'd raise UTG with KT, T9, K9. I'd say considering the c/r: AdKx, 99, TT, KK, AA, QJs or a smallish PP and he is making a move, but that's improbable, since you have been pretty tight. So I'm tending towards thinking that this is a value-bet.

The weakest hand I'd push would probably be AdTd which is stupid, because most of his range consists of sets or better, imo. So I have to pretend I'd at least need Td9x and even that would probably be burning money (I don't have pokerstove here).

[bozzer]

derosnec i almost ignored your post because of your generic avatar. can you get the laughing girls back please?

[Fiksdal]

Genz

[ QUOTE ]
AA

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't you think he would just lead with this?

[ QUOTE ]

QJs


[/ QUOTE ]
Even I dump this UTG. Do you think Mr. PFR 7 raises it from that position?

Otherwise I agree with your reasoing.

I held 99 here, I obviously pushed cuz, lol I has a set and I is robot.

When the guy that is usually betting for value, and usually cbetting, CRd as the preflop raiser, I was scared as hell cuz I mean, come on. Really. Come on. Isn't he representing KK/TT here? I mean, what else can possibly be in his range?

Tell me a hand I beat that is in his range, and why he wouldn't just make a normal cbet with it!

[Genz]

Well, thing is that a flop c/r as the PFR is always weird. Maybe he had some kind of read on you (AF of oo!) that you'll bet any flop. I think he'd do this with AA, because he is pretty tight with his raising standards preflop, so it's likely that he overvalues big pairs in general. So if you discard the possibility that he is trying to put a move on you because he completely missed it with AQo, I'd probably still push with 99, but I'd be pumping my fist yo.

[Fiksdal]

yeah I know folding a set is something I just can't really get my arm to do, but from a game theoretical point of view I really think folding is the correct play here.

[Lurker.]

it's close....i'm pretty close to saying fold but brain does not compute.

[BevillTheDevil]

1. id say villian has TT, KQ+, KK+, some draws sometimes
2. we have 99...profit

villian c/r flop 0/11 i dont know if this is a big enough sample...we have 123 hands on him, we've been at the table for only 30 so If villian remembers you he probably knows your more aggro than your current table stats

[We Major]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah I know folding a set is something I just can't really get my arm to do, but from a game theoretical point of view I really think folding is the correct play here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is folding to correct play?

You're beating AA, AJd, AQd, AK, KQ - There's 32 combinations of these hands. Make it 31 since your'e pretty much a coinflip against AQd and AJd.

You're losing to QJ, KK and TT - There's only 22 combinations of these hands and I would say QJ suited is the only one he raises UTG.

Even if you discount the above combos, it's still pretty close to even EV and you have to add in a bluff percentage.

Not to mention, this could be a weirdly played QQ, JJ - Give this 3-4 more combos you're beating. Also, if you've been fairly aggressive, I'd sometimes pull this move with air.

[Antinome]

Fiks-

Like your Villain, I'm a non-checkraiser - my PT database says I do it less than 0.1%

When I checkraise, I usually have a hand I think is best but I have no interest whatsoever in seeing a turn. A made hand with little chance of improvement on a scary board.

If he thinks anything like me, he doesn't have a set, those can improve pretty easily. The straight is vulnerable, but It is too strong a hand to be checkraising. Two pair hands, now those are in trouble on these boards, but probably best. But wtf would a 7% pfr guy be doing with KT UTG? Me, sure, I could have 9T here, but KT. Well, maybe if it was sooted and the table was passive. Now AA. Thats a hand that hates this board. Wants the hand over and money in his stack. Definitely in his UTG raising range /images/graemlins/smile.gif

So if I were Villain, I'd have two pair,or Aces. Not a set, not the straight, not a good combo draw. I'd b3bai those hands. Me, you should fist-pump push. Hmm. Note to self- mix up c/r play vs. 2p2ers.

Now this guy may think similarly but have a serious aversion to getting sucked out on by a flush. So he might be worried about top set or his straight, and be willing to take the money to the bank now.

Or he might just reserve the c/r for his hugest monsters. Hard to say. Works out the same as if he's scrrred.

In your shoes, I push.

[Genz]

Since you said earlier that you pushed, I'm intrigued about the result. All this analyzing stuff is worth nothing if you don't get feedback. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Fiksdal]

Yeah villain had TT