NL25: Big draw facing checkraise from tight player

[Emperor Norton]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($34.05)
BB ($25.20)
UTG ($24.25)
Hero ($43.90)
CO ($17.35)
Button ($7.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.35.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $1.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($4.20) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $10</font>, Hero?

Villain is something like 22/10/1.4. Generally pretty weak postflop. According to PokerStove I'm about 40% against a nightmare range of sets, two pair, and a couple of made flushes. So do I shove or fold?

[Rollos]

I call and fold to a turn shove, if we don't hit of course.

[Emperor Norton]

I think that's probably the worst option, since it only works if my opponent elects to shove into me on a four-flush board. That's a mistake a little too obvious even for an NL25 player.

[Shoe Lace]

I think either way is ok (shove/fold). If you don't mind being a slight underdog and variance, shove it.

I think I lay this down though. You have pretty much no fold equity here if you push the flop. I'm not sure about you, but putting my money in being behind is not at the top of my list.

If the situation were totally different and you were a 60/40 dog but you're confident you can get villain to fold to a push, I'd push all day.

[avfletch]

Shove all day every day. You have massive equity even if his range is just the nightmare one you listed and there's almost certainly going to be more stuff in there. I've seen enough check raises from stuff like moderate top pairs wanting to pick off cbets that you definitely have some fold equity.

[Rollos]

Wow nvm I just ran some stuff through pokerstove and we have a lot more equity than I thought so I shove.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

32,670 games 0.005 secs 6,534,000 games/sec

Board: Ah Th 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.795% 46.55% 00.25% 15207 81.00 { KhQc }
Hand 1: 53.205% 52.96% 00.25% 17301 81.00 { TT-99, AKs, ATs, AKo, AcQh, AdQh, AsQh, ATo, QhJc, QhJd, QhJs, JhTc, JhTd, JhTs }

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($34.05)
BB ($25.20)
UTG ($24.25)
Hero ($43.90)
CO ($17.35)
Button ($7.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.35.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $1.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($4.20) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $10</font>, Hero?

Villain is something like 22/10/1.4. Generally pretty weak postflop. According to PokerStove I'm about 40% against a nightmare range of sets, two pair, and a couple of made flushes. So do I shove or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

ez call, in fact c/c flop, seriously. If this guy is willing to bet over a check on the flop he will call a bet on the turn or river if you hit.

[Emperor Norton]

I don't get it. Why wouldn't I c-bet this flop?

[corsakh]

Easy push. Unless the guy is only doing this with sets and sets only you have equity to push. If he is doing this with two pairs and sets you have quity to push /images/graemlins/laugh.gif Calling is bad since you are not gonna get his stack if you hit one of your draws.

And please notice how all your draws are to the nuts.

And another thing is, he will play any ace this way.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that's probably the worst option, since it only works if my opponent elects to shove into me on a four-flush board. That's a mistake a little too obvious even for an NL25 player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious?? Relax and let this one come or let it go. There is no mistake c/c'ing that flop. If you c and he bets flop and you hit, what is he going to do if you c again? Check? ok, fine, then you lead for 2/3 or so of the pot on the river. Do you think this "thinking" player at this level is folding his AxTh or AxJh on that river heart? We CONTROL this hand... Think about that for a sec.



T

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get it. Why wouldn't I c-bet this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

no issue cbeting this flop, my point was to call a rr. sorry.

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that's probably the worst option, since it only works if my opponent elects to shove into me on a four-flush board. That's a mistake a little too obvious even for an NL25 player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious?? Relax and let this one come or let it go. There is no mistake c/c'ing that flop. If you c and he bets flop and you hit, what is he going to do if you c again? Check? ok, fine, then you lead for 2/3 or so of the pot on the river. Do you think this "thinking" player at this level is folding his AxTh or AxJh on that river heart? We CONTROL this hand... Think about that for a sec.



T

[/ QUOTE ]

You're blowing my mind, man. That all makes sense (kinda), but then when would you c-bet this flop? I bet the flop as a matter of course, but I can almost wrap my head around what you're saying. If I play the hand fast, I get my chips into the middle against strong hands as a small favorite or dog, but if I play the hand slowly, I can exploit those hands on later streets, to my advantage.

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't get it. Why wouldn't I c-bet this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

no issue cbeting this flop, my point was to call a rr. sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't quite get it, then. I'm in position. If villain open-shoves every turn and I call, it's the same as if we get it all-in on the flop. So are you suggesting that I call the flop bet and fold to a turn shove that doesn't improve my hand?

[bozzer]

haven't totted up the maths but this looks like a shove since you'll get some FE from 2p hopefully.

[Nick C]

I think this is a tough spot. I mean, given that BB called preflop closing the action in what he knew would be a 3-way pot, he may have been more inclined to speculate than usual, and I think we have more than just a couple of flushes to worry about.

That said, I think I'm kind of leaning toward a high-variance shove. I'm not really sure what's best, though. And, also, it seems to me that the immediate odds you're getting are a bit too favorable to make folding a good option. That is, I think I like calling better than folding, and at the table in the heat of the moment, there's a good chance that calling is what I would do -- which of course has its plusses and minuses. A call tosses away any folding equity you might have and also it is probably going to be hard to get paid if the turn brings another heart. But on the other hand calling does allow us to get away more cheaply on those frequent occasions when we miss on the turn.

[mertzo]

I would call, the nightmare range your talking about is probably his range, so i doubt there is FE here. Folding is just lollerskates.

[knowledgeORbust]

I hate calling, he's got what, 6 bucks left?
It's kinda close, but I think I'm folding here.

Shoving's not awful though, because you're not too -EV and this play will make you look wild (if you like that image.) Raise KQo to 5xBB then play like a madman after that, and if anyone's paying attention they're gonna think you are looser/crazier than you are. I'm not opposed to shoving or folding - calling would be optimal if Button called but oh well.

[poker_n00b]

He got $14 left.

Call if you think he will put money in when you hit. And I definately think he will in this enormous pot with sets and lower flushes.

Shove, if he is a good player, because you will not get money from him when you hit and he might fold some hands.

Personally, in the heat of the moment I'd shove.