Fold to turn raise with big draw? 2ndNF + Gut shot

[Charlie_VB]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $49.55
BB: $51.25
Hero (UTG): $59.60
MP: $51.75
CO: $157.50
BTN: $50.70

Preflop: Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($4.50) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, SB calls $3.50

Turn: ($11.50) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $22.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $54.10</font>, SB calls all-in for $22.05
Uncalled bet of $10.05 returned to Hero

River: ($99.60) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $99.60 ($3 Rake)

[SykoraG]

I'm definately checking behind this turn. As played I am calling his reraise getting good odds (assuming your KD is the nuts) and counting your A K as half outs. Folding to unimprovement on the river and saving money.

[Nick C]

In terms of immediate odds, you're getting about 8:3 on the turn. That's approximately what you need if have 12 outs.

Of course, you could be drawing dead instead, and in fact all Villain needs is a flopped flush to knock you down to 7 outs (and that's assuming his flush isn't ace-high and that he doesn't have straight-flush potential). Meanwhile, your implied odds aren't terrific or anything, since Villain doesn't have all that much left behind and also because you will sometimes improve and then lose.

I think folding to the turn checkraise is best, but I also think it's a fairly close decision. I don't like the push, though. I mean, the hand we're kind of hoping for is JT, and Villain isn't going to fold that.

[creamfillin]

I would fold to his turn raise, you could be drawing dead/your gutshot probably isn't good/you probably aren't drawing to 9 outs. Sb is never folding here on the turn, so a shove is probably -EV here.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm definately checking behind this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This certainly is an option to consider.

[SykoraG]

I said assuming your Kd is the nuts. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. Like I said, this is not the way I'd play it simply because our hand can't stand being check raised / we aren't drawing to the full nuts.