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View Full Version : Push with nut flush (is this +EV)?


Charlie_VB
06-22-2007, 07:33 PM
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $38.00
BB: $21.50
UTG: $83.40
Hero (MP): $54.15
CO: $43.15
BTN: $48.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $6.50</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $4.50

Flop: ($13.50) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $13.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $47.65</font>, SB calls all-in for $18.00
Uncalled bet of $16.15 returned to Hero

Turn: ($76.50) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players - 2 All-In)

River: ($76.50) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $76.50 ($3 Rake)

SykoraG
06-22-2007, 07:38 PM
This is very neutral EV (given you are not the 3 better + he led out strong so you have no FE). You will win just as much as you will lose based on your odds. If your ace is a clean out you are around 40%.

creamfillin
06-22-2007, 07:44 PM
Standard

Emperor Norton
06-22-2007, 07:55 PM
This is close but OK. The fact that villain led for full pot with so little behind makes me think that he has neither AK nor TT, so you're generally facing a range of JJ+, against which you have about 43% equity. You're never a favorite here, and I doubt you have much (if any) fold equity, but the overlay makes the play worthwhile.

deal
06-22-2007, 08:07 PM
Borderline but at this level I'd think about folding preflop - the very worst hand most people three bet with is AQ or JJ, and everything else in villains range has you crushed, unless he has been getting out of line. Is this too nitty? I can't think of that many flops I'm going to be really excited about in this situation - his raise is very solid. Nh villain.

As played flop is pretty standard, depending on your tolerance for swings. The board being paired doesn't help tho (takes away one of your outs if he holds say KdKc).

Chomp
06-22-2007, 09:18 PM
I fold preflop a lot. Depends on read.

vixticator
06-22-2007, 09:35 PM
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Standard

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