(NL50) Straight with NFD, tough call

[PietM]

The following hand occured last night. Villain was loose and not extremely aggressive.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $13.75
BB: $58.90
PietM (UTG): $100.55
CO: $48.00
BTN: $32.55

Preflop: PietM is dealt Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 Players)
<font color="red">PietM raises to $2.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) K/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">PietM bets $3.50</font>, BTN calls $3.50

Turn: ($11.75) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">PietM bets $7.50</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises all-in to $27.05</font>, PietM...

equity win
Hand 0: 86.713% { AcQh }
Hand 1: 13.287% { KK, JJ-TT, 22, KJs-KTs, JTs, KJo-KTo, JTo }

Hand 0: 15.909% { AcQh }
Hand 1: 84.091% { 5c3c }

If I put villain on a made flush 70% of the time, and some two-pair/set type of hand 30% of the time (I discount weird bluffs for this calculation), I have a 15% chance of catching the nutflush (pokerstove) when behind, and a 86% chance my hand holds up when ahead. So, I win 0.15 times $65 70% of the time (=$6.80), and win 0.86 times $65 30% of the time (=$16.77). Add those up, makes my EV $23.57. I have to call just under $20, so that makes that call slightly +EV, even without throwing in some weird (semi)bluffs by villain, correct?

[bored]

Your calculations look right to me.

I'd instantly call, even before doing the calculations.

Also villain could have Q9 and be drawing to chop at best, which would increase your equity further.

[Genz]

Easy call. Bet more on the turn in the first place.

[Jouster777]

I don't know how loose villain is PF but with the A/images/graemlins/club.gif in your hand and the broadway /images/graemlins/club.gifs on the board I only count ~14 combos of SC's and suited one gaps he could have (down to 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif). Compare this to just the flopped sets and you are ahead here &gt;70%. Add in all the other possibilities and its &gt;&gt;70%.