Serious KK preflop hand SUPER TUESDAY FT

[roo400]

Final table of the Super Tuesday. I was playing quite agressively when we were down to 2-3 tables and I've been repopped a good amount too. At the FT though, I have calmed down a bit since the mega stack that was to my right was raising 3-4 times by orbit.

UTG: was at my table when down to 2 tables, he called some of my raises and folded to continuation bet. He also 3bet me all in when I had him covered approching the FT bubble. When he raised (about once per orbit), it was for 4X BB but here he just elected to call UTG.

Button: I didn't have much respect for this player. He was playing quite tight and he was short.

FWIW, the minreraise was INSTANT and the UTG's all in took about 1 second (so almost instant too)


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t100762)
UTG+1 (t190914)
roo_400 (t111740)
MP2 (t114226)
CO (t48932)
Button (t58222)
SB (t36420)
BB (t37784)

Preflop: roo_400 is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t4000, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">roo_400 raises to t15495</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t26990</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t100762</font>, roo_400 ???

Odds knowing button will call for sure:

Main pot (3 handed): 43K to call in 140K (3.25:1)
Side pot (heads up): 40K to call in 40K (1:1)

[Eagles]

I'm not folding

[ZJ123]

This is a pretty sick spot.

What are the chances the button misclicked?


I really want to say fold here, but i don't think i could.

[uclabruinz]

I'm having a really hard time seeing UTG instashoving anything other then AA.

[Ansky]

nasty

id fold /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[DeMaci]

Never fold.

[Butcho22]

Pacmann was getting killed by the rail last night, backstory?

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
Never fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

So the UTG limpinstathreebetshove into bigger big stack after a raise and an instaminraise (possibly a misclick but generally worth a pause for thought) at a big paying FT can be what else that we can put into a range?

[DeMaci]

AK? Didn't want to raise and get flat called by the chip leader opening every hand and be put in an awkward spot with a decent sized pot out there?

[registrar]

I can buy it but is it going to be the case often enough that he'll now shove after the action, without a pause for thought about the action?

I mean we're talking about kings pf where some spaz has just fattened the pot for the massive CL with seven left so I really don't want to fold here, but if this is AK like 25% of the time, is that gonna be enough to make this a call?

[NHFunkii]

[ QUOTE ]
nasty

id fold /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
AK? Didn't want to raise and get flat called by the chip leader opening every hand and be put in an awkward spot with a decent sized pot out there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this really your read, or is it a "man I will never fold kk preflop, so lemme justify it w/ a random read."

[Austiger]

Mathematically villain is 50% more likely to have AA than AK with the two kings gone. Also, he is obv. more likely to limp/trap with AA, less likely to continue after this action with AK, more likely to pause for thought with AK, etc.

Fold.

[TheNewf]

[ QUOTE ]
Mathematically villain is 50% more likely to have AA than AK with the two kings gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... no. 8 combos of AK, 6 of AA. I'm pretty sure the minreraiser in this hand is Martine23 right? I'm not one to ever fold KK preflop on these stacksizes, but Martine is so huge here and there's like no chance he's trying to level you, this might the spot to do it.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
nasty

id fold /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
ya i actually think this is a fold, albeit a sick one. utg like always has AA here

[ZJ123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Mathematically villain is 50% more likely to have AA than AK with the two kings gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... no. 8 combos of AK, 6 of AA. I'm pretty sure the minreraiser in this hand is Martine23 right? I'm not one to ever fold KK preflop on these stacksizes, but Martine is so huge here and there's like no chance he's trying to level you, this might the spot to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

if button is Martine, isnt is raise always a misclick?

Im not folding here, if we know the first raise is a misclick

[Ansky]

wowowow is button martine? that changes a lot.

(i still might fold tho lol)

[SonofDjugashvili]

If you fold you are still 5th by a wide margin, correct? If the limper has AA and takes you both, you finish 7th. If you win you are a solid chip-leader. What are the payouts? I am too lazy but I think someone can figure out the real $ equity here. Also, does the limper consider you LAG enough to do this with QQ (even JJ?) or is this AA (and, as mentioned, AK)?

[8Adam8]

Hopefully this helps:

1. Button is Martine. He had been playing verrrrry tight and the minraise was 100% instant.

2. UTG was some spanish clown who was not very good and was opening for 4X and playing pretty sloppy.


Anyways, I watched the hand, and I def call given the scenario.

[ZJ123]

yeah martines raise has to be a misclick, im def all in right here.

[blankoblanco]

oh god, this is sick. i can't imagine UTG has AA any less than 75% of the time so i think i actually fold

[thebeebster]

KK. serious business.

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Mathematically villain is 50% more likely to have AA than AK with the two kings gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... no. 8 combos of AK, 6 of AA. I'm pretty sure the minreraiser in this hand is Martine23 right? I'm not one to ever fold KK preflop on these stacksizes, but Martine is so huge here and there's like no chance he's trying to level you, this might the spot to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right I miscounted I guess. Still a fold though IMO.

[timex]

I fold because it is martine, as the hand occurred and roo was thinking, I told someone on AIM I fold KK in his shoes.

[roo400]

who's Martine and what's her style?? that was the first time I saw her on the tables. She was playing fairly tight for the hands I played with her.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah martines raise has to be a misclick, im def all in right here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does the this make any difference? IT's UTG I'm putting on aces.

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
who's Martine and what's her style?? that was the first time I saw her on the tables. She was playing fairly tight for the hands I played with her.

[/ QUOTE ]

Martine23 is a guy and a big nit. Not bad, but again, a nit. Which will only get you so far.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yeah martines raise has to be a misclick, im def all in right here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does the this make any difference? IT's UTG I'm putting on aces.

[/ QUOTE ]-
UTG has 25xBB. It wouldn't be unreasonable for him to limp AK or QQ, in which case he probably follows through with the LRR. I can't see how he has anything but AA, QQ, or AK. I think this is close, because UTG probably has aces a lot, and there is a decent chance the button has aces.