50NL - Should I stop betting at some poi

[K䲰䮥n]

These spots worry me. Should I just start to call his bets (wa/wb) at some point? Unkown villain.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

Button ($25)
SB ($28.60)
Hero ($65.75)
UTG ($80.30)
MP ($46.25)
CO ($50.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.75</font>, MP calls $1.75, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: ($5.50) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $9.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $33.75</font>, MP calls $34.50 (All-In), Hero calls $10.25.

River: ($93.50) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $93.50

[orig!naL]

I think that line is fine. You don't want to get in trouble when another spade peels off on the turn and then he shoves.

[Raisor]

looks good

[K䲰䮥n]

wow i'm so stupid. jet lag is killing me. lol this hand is obv. thanks for the non-wise ass replies

/hand

[Waingro]

Ok I have some points;
1. this is not wa/wb
2. after his miniraise on the turn villain has a pot sized bet left. I don´t think calling the mini raise is going to prevent the money going in if he has you beat. If you think he only ever does this with a Q-high flush or better, I don´t think you should be calling.
3. A ton of cards on the river potentially kill your hand/action. If dude has a set/lower flush I don´t think he will enjoy a 4th spade.
4. You think he will fold 2pair+ or tp with a fd to a push if he chose to play it like this?
5. I think your best way to get value out of worse hands is pushing the turn. I think your best way of minimizing losses against the nuts is folding. Without a rock-solid read to the contrary I would push.

[bluffbetter]

If MP does have a higher flush then he's not raised enough to price out a set from calling (the call is 19.39%), because a set has 21.74% to hit a full house or quads and you would be very likely to win some more on the river if you hit were this the case.

[sirklas]

I am putting villian on A/images/graemlins/spade.gif and Ax. With that holding he is a 34,78 % (8 for the FD and 9 outs for FH) underdog to win. He didn`t get the right odds to win...

[poker_n00b]

You should get the money here everytime. Very seldom, maybe even never, will you have such a good read here that you're beat, that folding is correct.

[ama0330]

YOU SHOULD FOLD HE PROBABLY HAS ACES

OR KINGS

[sirklas]

[ QUOTE ]
YOU SHOULD FOLD HE PROBABLY HAS ACES

OR KINGS

[/ QUOTE ]

Your answer is incorrect and - ev!!! With As,Ax he is a 34.78 % underdog. With Ks,Kx a 20 % underdog. If we consider the pot on the turn 5.50 $ and look what villian calls for the odds, its only -ev with both of the above holdings.

*** will be continued...

sirklas

[Kasane]

You're being leveled sirklas. Of course getting it in here is standard and obvious. I think even OP has this one figured out now. If villain had a higher flush, so be it. It's like set over set, coolered, move on.

[vixticator]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.02/$0.05 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $14.82
Hero (BB): $10.00
UTG: $5.90
MP: $14.88
CO: $8.05
BTN: $2.99

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.05, CO calls $0.05, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.17) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.15</font>, MP calls $0.15, CO folds

Turn: ($0.47) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.35</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $0.70</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, MP calls $2.80

River: ($7.47) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets all-in for $6.30</font>, MP calls $6.30

Pot Size: $20.07 ($0.95 Rake)

MP had 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (three of a kind, Fives) and LOST (-$10.00)
Hero had 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (a flush, King high) and WON (+$9.12)

OMG I ALMOST FOLDED.

[sirklas]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
YOU SHOULD FOLD HE PROBABLY HAS ACES

OR KINGS

[/ QUOTE ]

Your answer is incorrect and - ev!!! With As,Ax he is a 34.78 % underdog. With Ks,Kx a 20 % underdog. If we consider the pot on the turn 5.50 $ and look what villian calls for the odds, its only -ev with both of the above holdings.

*** will be continued...

sirklas

[/ QUOTE ]
.... thought I could edit my previous post here.
Ok, I made a mistake with the odds.

villian might only:

Hold (any) set: 21,74 % underdog
Hold As,Ax: 37,78 % underdog
Hold: Ks,Kx: 15,9 % underdog
Hold Qs,x: 15,9 % underdog
Hold Ks,Xs: the nuts
Hold Qs,Xs: the nuts

If hero pushes here, or plays like played here, villian pays 92 % to get max. of 37,78 % to beat hero, if we assume, that villian has no higher flush.

Lets assume villian has in

10 % of the times a higher flush: 100 % wins 70 $ = 70 $

20 % of the times As;Ax: wins 37,78 %, 62,22 % 70 $ = 0,3778*70-0,6222*70 = 26,45 - 43,54 = - 17,09 $

70 % of the times any other set: wins: 21,47 %, loses 78,53 % = 0,2147*70-0,7853*70 = 15,03-54,97= -39,94 $

0,1 * 69 = + 6,90 $
0,2 * (-17,9) = - 3,65 $
0,7 * (-39,94) = - 27,95 $
= - 24,70 $

So villians IA-Push is - ev. I didn`t consider a worser flush from villian here, because it would not make his ev better; only worser.

So you played the hand very good. Perhaps only a IAR instead of your raise would have been better.

sirklas