99 Second Pair on Turn, How's My Line?

[CPHoya]

Villain was 35/25/3.5 over about 150 hands. My image should be tight aggressive, running 21/15 (or close). Have won a few pots, nothing out of the ordinary.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($52.10)
<font color="#C00000">MP ($53.05)</font>
CO ($66.60)
Button ($8.15)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($50.20)</font>
BB ($22.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.50) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.5</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $4.50.

Turn: ($15.50) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, MP calls $8.

River: ($31.50) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $38.55 (All-In)</font>, Hero SNAPcalls $35.70 (All-In).

Final Pot: $105.75

So how's my line?

[HighSteaks]

Ballsy call, I would fold the river.

[Vyse]

I don't like donking flops with hands like that. If you don't believe him, CR it.

[Restlys]

id fold the river as he could not have very much hands that he would go all in with that you would beat... your hoping hes playing a lone 5, or pockets 6 and 7s, which he would by most standards c the river with...so im thinking he has something better than you.

[CPHoya]

[ QUOTE ]
our hoping hes playing a lone 5, or pockets 6 and 7s, which he would by most standards c the river with...so im thinking he has something better than you

[/ QUOTE ]

Not following at all.

[Restlys]

what are the hands he could have , that he would play the way he played that you would beat? a lone 5, pocket 6 and pocket 7, and pocket 8...... then pocket 10 and up, AQ ;hes MP and raised 4x bb pf, some players call with 2 overcards thinking that their gonna stack you if they hit their cards......that would be congruent with his AI no?

[CPHoya]

I'm pretty sure we're not hoping he has 66 here. . .

ANY suited connectors of spades, and spade overcards, and lower PPs are possible. But with the flop and turn action and this guy's stats I checked the river HOPING to see a missed FD push and called INSTANTLY.

I want comments on that part of the line more than about what I'm beating at the moment.

[CPHoya]

Also, a 4x preflop raise from MP is totally standard, and doesn't tell me much more than "this dude has AA-22, AK - JT, AQ, AJ, AT, KJ, KT, QT, suited connectors, maybe some bare connectors, or maybe some suited 1-gappers."

[Restlys]

if you want to cancel the suited connectors scenario just bet pot, that way he doesnt have the odds to call you. and im refering the the possible hands he would in all good sense go AI with on the river and a couple of hands you just enumerated are not valid anymore, esp considering your aggression on the flop/turn, lower pockets than 5 i would be surprised would call that turn, and not many things weaker than your 99 i just dont see going AI ! but then again im not at those stakes yet so really im erring on the side of caution

[Vyse]

Without any reads I think the river call is spew. Double barreling the turn is fine.

[CPHoya]

Oh I get the misunderstanding.

I'm just talking about what the preflop raise tells me about his range (almost nothing). I'm not enumerating what he is probably holding on the turn.

On the flop his call looks supiciously like a float, or overcards, or drawing to the flush. I think big overpairs raise.

On the turn it looks even more like drawing to the flush/overcards he can't let go. His stats don't look, to me, like those of a player who is slowplaying a monster here.

The river doesn't hurt me so I check to induce a bluff, he shoves and I'm thinking it's a transparent bluff from this player. Snap call.

So that was my thinking.

[Vyse]

Your only "read" are his stats, and stats aren't a read. A ton of aggro players slow play like this when they hit a monster. All you beat is a bluff.

[CPHoya]

[ QUOTE ]
All you beat is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know.

Who value shoves here? Isn't this a bluff LOTS of the time?

[Vyse]

It's often a bluff, but it's often a monster, too. There's nothing wrong with calling off a read, but that's all it is, so there's not much to say.

[yersinia]

What are his AF flop, turn and river? A dude at my table yesterday had 0.7, 1.2, 17 (!!) over 120-ish hands (then he busted and left...). Had seen him make insane AI bluffs on river and made notes of it. Sure enough, I called his Xth AI river bet with a mediocre hand and took the pot against his missed flush.

However, AI value betting on river is insanely EV+ against opponents who routinely will call with mediocre to good hands. If you believe your opponent to call with such a hand, just go for it. Now, all we need to do is find an opponent who talks himself into calling the AI river bet with a mediocre hand... I wouldn't be surprised if notes were written down by the other players, no pun intended.

[tarheeljks]

i may 3bet pf against this guy