An underpair looks to be best on the turn and I am lost.....

[HoldEmNewby]

Villain here runs at 40/18/2.13 I don't know what to make of his flop check. Is leading this turn wrong? Should I have led the flop?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $46.75
Hero (BB): $53.85
UTG: $144.70
CO: $92.00
BTN: $46.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $3.00</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($6.25) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: ($6.25) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)

[PietM]

If you bet out here, villain won't call without an ace, I think. But checking might induce a bluff. Or is that too fancy?

[creamfillin]

Bet and take it down now, if called i'm shutting down because he's probably a tard that checked top pair or is going to call down with a better pp.

[barryc83]

id usually just check here again and prolly call a bet. if he bet the turn and river big id fold river. unless i know hes capable of bluffing like that.

[PRE]

Bet.

[YesMehFriend]

Do you have any more information? (standard raise size?, c-bet frequency?, slowplayer? etc.)
If not: his flop check looks somewhat suspicious esp. since his stats look kinda aggressive and the board is dry (perfect c-betting board ...).
Nevertheless he might be scared of the A and our play looks like a failed c/r now betting the turn and therefore I'd lead the turn for ~4$. But that's the last money I put in, if called a c/f should be our river play imo.

[YesMehFriend]

[ QUOTE ]
id usually just check here again and prolly call a bet. if he bet the turn and river big id fold river. unless i know hes capable of bluffing like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking sounds quite good since he might bluff and we get additional value.
But won't c/c'ing the turn and checking the river again look like a draw or a very weak pair, which villain might try to bluff out? I'm not too happy with calling two bets with such a weak hand without a real read.
If we want to represent the A we should c/r the turn or c/c the turn and lead the river but both plays are too dangerous here imo.

[creamfillin]

If we check to induce we aren't really beating anything in his range that he might bet the turn with. KQ?KJ? not much, I'd rather bet, 88 has little showdown value here, and usually when he bets the turn a river bet will follow.

[barryc83]

Well heres why I think checking&gt;betting.

He might bluff at it now and we're dodging 6 outs. If we bet and he folds we have the best hand anyways (which is fine actually). He's never folding 99-KK here IMO. I dont even think you can get him to fold those hands on both the turn and river after the second A hits. And I think you can c/c the turn and c/f the river if villain starts betting it hard. JMO.

[crushednuts]

i think c/c c/f is too weak here. I bet and we may get value out of a hand that calls us w/ a worse pair or a draw. if you let a free card come off and the 8d is the river you just lost yourself the pot. If you are called either shutdown and c/c a non-diamond straight river card or c/f

[CennyCripple]

Check he's flop aggression and CB%. Unless you are a real nit he's probably gonna CB here without a pair. If its low I would try to take it down, but if I got raised or called the hands over.

I don't like C/C to induce a bluff at this spot.

[YesMehFriend]

creamfillin:

[ QUOTE ]
If we check to induce we aren't really beating anything in his range that he might bet the turn with. KQ?KJ? not much, I'd rather bet, 88 has little showdown value here, and usually when he bets the turn a river bet will follow.

[/ QUOTE ]

I advocated betting not raising ....

barryc83:

[ QUOTE ]

Well heres why I think checking&gt;betting.

He might bluff at it now and we're dodging 6 outs. If we bet and he folds we have the best hand anyways (which is fine actually). He's never folding 99-KK here IMO. I dont even think you can get him to fold those hands on both the turn and river after the second A hits. And I think you can c/c the turn and c/f the river if villain starts betting it hard. JMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

We only dodge 6outs if we bet and he folds. If he has a hand better than ours he won't fold it - ok, but what's so bad about that? We lose the hand anyway but will have to pay about the same - you bet the turn, he calls and you lose like 4$ when he has a better hand, you check the turn/river and he bets at least one time for 4$ (mb more!) you call and still lose. It's about the same but you'll dodge 6 outs for sure when you make him fold overcards to your pair and you stop him from bluffing you out when you hold the best hand.

[ActionStan]

I think this is a really solid line. I think we want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. If we induce a turn or river bluff, that's good too. We may have the best hand, but what we have isn't all that good. The only things we're getting to fold on this board we already beat. The things we don't beat are drawing slim. Check it and call one bet somewhere.

[bored]

w/o reading any responses,

The turn A is an irrelevant card. Any hand that was the best on the previous street is still the best now (excluding 65, which he probably doesn't have anyway).

The only difference now is that drawing hands only have one more street to draw out. I'd bet $4 and if called be done with the hand.

I think he either has

-A real hand that he won't fold, such as any A, any pp that beats you, and big /images/graemlins/diamond.gifs.

or

-Random broadways

If you bet I think he'll fold random broadways and call everything else.

If called on the turn, I'd check/fold the river. His call on the turn makes it more likely that he has a hand that beats you than one that doesn't.

[Unknown Soldier]

bet he'll call worse KQ 22 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifs etc take control of the pot. If he was going to bluff this pot he'd probably bet flop. Don't think theres too much value in inducing a bluff here. You can't profitably call 2 streets anyway. He'l check down 22/33 KQ if you don't bet.

[wikemang]

what about c/c turn and blocking on the river?