50NL KK ovepair on flop 200BB deep vs AI

[BevillTheDevil]

villian is 52/16/2 270 hands hasnt seem him be very aggro
EDIT: wanted to add that ive seen him 3bet pf w/ JJ so those overpairs may be less likely

Stack sizes:
UTG: $120.05
Button: $57.30
SB: $131.78
Hero: $95.75

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG calls, 2 folds, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif ($5.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $19.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $117.55</font>, Hero ?

[Lego05]

Fold.. I'm not sure about the flop 3bet.

[barryc83]

meh if Ive seen him raise top pair ill felt it, if I know hes a station whos a caller I could fold, but I usually dont fold to these guys, lol. playing overpairs 200bb deep sucks huh?

[YesMehFriend]

The pot is about half your stack after your 3rd raise, if he calls that you'll virtually always play for stacks. Imo your reraise will fold out most hands you beat.

I'd just call his raise - if he's really aggro he won't check the turn with say AT. The board is quite dry he isn't too likely to profit much from seeing the next card cheaper - but you might not get stacked this way when he holds 55/88/TT which should make up a nice part of his range after this pf-action.

For the way the hand played out: it comes down to whether he'll make this play with anything but a set. If he does that with QQ or AT then you should have a good call (just 9 combos for sets ...). It depends on what "very aggro" means.
I guess I'd call this ...

[Chomp]

This deep, I think you have to fold, but it really, really sucks.

I think I like the flop 3b as he will panic-call it very often after raising this part of his range: {Tx, JJ-QQ, small pp's, draws, overs}, and he will probably push with the rest of his range: {sets}. This allows us play perfectly (if we fold to the push, that is!).

By contrast, I think calling villain's flop raise and then leading turn costs a bit more when we are behind, and may lose us some value if we are ahead as he might make a hasty/paniced flop call of our 3b with TJ/whatever, but then get cold feet on the turn and fold.

Stack-a-donking this deep seems pretty dumb to me with 1P.

By the way, here in the forum I say fold blah blah blah, but at the table I call this kind of crap a lot. Physician heal thyself etc.

All just IMO.

[creamfillin]

When is this NOT a set?

[YesMehFriend]

[ QUOTE ]
This deep, I think you have to fold, but it really, really sucks.

I think I like the flop 3b as he will panic-call it very often after raising this part of his range: {Tx, JJ-QQ, small pp's, draws, overs}, and he will probably push with the rest of his range: {sets}. This allows us play perfectly (if we fold to the push, that is!).

[/ QUOTE ]

Your analysis sounds pretty good (and I guess you're right about folding to the push) but we get into trouble when he just calls the reraise with his sets, now he can play perfectly against us (we lead the turn, he uses position and pushes his sets to stack us or folds his weaker holdings).
He might panic call the flop - true (I didn't really think about it that way /images/graemlins/wink.gif) but we can get the same value when he bets his weaker holdings JJ/AT etc on the turn.

[crushednuts]

TT or 88 or 55 here every day of the week. Villain doesn't go nuts here w/ JJ..

He doesn't have QQ b/c he limp called your raise pf. I would guess he has 88 or 55..

[ActionStan]

There was a funny bit with Gavin Smith talking about a hand on pokerwire a few days ago. It's a few minutes in when Joe Sebok is describing a hand with Michael Binger:

http://www.pokerwire.com/radioArticle?aid=756

In any case, what the villain is saying is, "Sir, you may think you have the best hand, but I have the best hand. It was a good thought. You may be pretending you have the best hand, but I actually have it."

Unless he's a total rock head, you just don't unearth AT here all that often. You asked, he answered, let it go.