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VLV

06-16-2007, 10:52 AM

Villain is 58/8/1.75 over 35 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($10.65)
Hero ($10)
CO ($6.65)
Button ($10.20)
SB ($6.05)
BB ($9.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.35, 2 folds, SB calls $0.30, 1 fold.

Flop: ($0.80) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.6, SB calls $0.60.

Turn: ($2) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB raises to $5.1 Hero-???

Call or fold? Would your answer differ if villain had a bigger stack? I really think he would re-raise if he hit a flush on the flop. Plus whenever something like this happen I remember that hitting a flush on the flop is something like 1-110 odds or something.

No reads on this Villain

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP ($10.35)
Hero ($15.85)
SB ($6.55)
BB ($10.20)
UTG ($9.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.4, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold.

Flop: ($0.90) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.7, SB raises to $1.4, Hero calls $0.70.

Turn: ($3.70) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero-???

I had top pair w/ GK plus a gut shot so I figured calling his minraise on the flop seemed fine but I'm not sure about the turn. Is this an easy fold?

jk1986

06-16-2007, 11:09 AM

Hand 1's an easy call, you're way committed (I'd still call even if I didn't have the straight here). If the stacks were deeper then the situation would be totally different, and he could no longer viable raise AI on teh turn with a made hand. (I'm basically trying to say that the villain most likely wouldnt play the same with deeper stacks.

Hand 2 : I'll probably just call the turn and hope he makes a similar stupidly sized bet on the river. Would fold to river push. To many hands like JT that we beat to fold getting almost 5:1 tbh.

ev_slave

06-16-2007, 12:02 PM

I get the feeling in Hand 1 that he calls with the Ah, so the Turn gives him top pair which he probably thinks as good, plus has some drawing outs if you do somehow have the flush. I'd call.

Hand 2 seems like it's a call due mostly to the odds you're getting, but I play 10NL on FT and too many people will call raises with AX. Against A2-AT you're right at a 4-1 dog, so any extra you could win on the river makes this a call. Add KTs, KJs, JTs and QJs to his range and you're only a 2-1 dog. So calling does seem right.

I noticed above that you added some math as an afterthought to Hand 1. Statistics like these are good to remember, but in this case your math is wrong. It's 117-1 against flopping a flush GIVEN YOU HAVE SUITED CARDS. But the odds of any one opponent having a made flush GIVEN A SUITED FLOP are only 23-1 against. So reminding yourself of the math is good, but remind yourself of the right numbers or you'll be running into made flushes a lot more often than you're anticipating.

EDIT: I forgot you had a heart. Since you have one, his odds of having the flush fall to 29:1 against, but my point is still valid.

FullyBoat

06-16-2007, 12:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I noticed above that you added some math as an afterthought to Hand 1. Statistics like these are good to remember, but in this case your math is wrong. It's 117-1 against flopping a flush GIVEN YOU HAVE SUITED CARDS. But the odds of any one opponent having a made flush GIVEN A SUITED FLOP are only 23-1 against. So reminding yourself of the math is good, but remind yourself of the right numbers or you'll be running into made flushes a lot more often than you're anticipating.

EDIT: I forgot you had a heart. Since you have one, his odds of having the flush fall to 29:1 against, but my point is still valid.

[/ QUOTE ]

So it's 117-1 for him villain to flop a heart flush in hand 1, ONLY when you also have 2 hearts as well? Otherwise it's only 23-1? I just want to make sure I am understanding this correctly.

ocdscale

06-16-2007, 12:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I noticed above that you added some math as an afterthought to Hand 1. Statistics like these are good to remember, but in this case your math is wrong. It's 117-1 against flopping a flush GIVEN YOU HAVE SUITED CARDS. But the odds of any one opponent having a made flush GIVEN A SUITED FLOP are only 23-1 against. So reminding yourself of the math is good, but remind yourself of the right numbers or you'll be running into made flushes a lot more often than you're anticipating.

EDIT: I forgot you had a heart. Since you have one, his odds of having the flush fall to 29:1 against, but my point is still valid.

[/ QUOTE ]

So it's 117-1 for him villain to flop a heart flush in hand 1, ONLY when you also have 2 hearts as well? Otherwise it's only 23-1? I just want to make sure I am understanding this correctly.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 117-1 for villain to flop a heart flush (if he's holding two hearts).
But it's only 23-1 (29-1 in this case) that given a flush board, villain has a flush.

Look at it this way, in the first scenario two of the suited cards are known (villain's pocket cards) and you want the probability the next 3 will match.
In the second scenario, three of the cards are known (the board) and you want the probability the 2 previous cards matched. Easier to match 2 than 3.

FullyBoat

06-16-2007, 12:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I noticed above that you added some math as an afterthought to Hand 1. Statistics like these are good to remember, but in this case your math is wrong. It's 117-1 against flopping a flush GIVEN YOU HAVE SUITED CARDS. But the odds of any one opponent having a made flush GIVEN A SUITED FLOP are only 23-1 against. So reminding yourself of the math is good, but remind yourself of the right numbers or you'll be running into made flushes a lot more often than you're anticipating.

EDIT: I forgot you had a heart. Since you have one, his odds of having the flush fall to 29:1 against, but my point is still valid.

[/ QUOTE ]

So it's 117-1 for him villain to flop a heart flush in hand 1, ONLY when you also have 2 hearts as well? Otherwise it's only 23-1? I just want to make sure I am understanding this correctly.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 117-1 for villain to flop a heart flush (if he's holding two hearts).
But it's only 23-1 (29-1 in this case) that given a flush board, villain has a flush.

Look at it this way, in the first scenario two of the suited cards are known (villain's pocket cards) and you want the probability the next 3 will match.
In the second scenario, three of the cards are known (the board) and you want the probability the 2 previous cards matched. Easier to match 2 than 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

Appreciated, thanks.