KK - deep nl10

[jk1986]

This hand turned up in my uni poker forum, no reads, and i don't have the hand history to convert I'm afraid. Interested in peoples thoughts, since I was surprised that opinion was split.

Party Poker 10NL

Hero: ~$20

Button: ~$25




Dealt to Hero (KsKh)

Hero (UTG) raises to $0.40

(folds to button)

Button raises to $1.50

(blinds fold)

Hero raises to $5.50

Button goes all in for ~$25

Hero ???

[Shoe Lace]

It's a pretty tough decision. Both of you have a pretty decent sized stack. He knows it, and you know it.

I think vs an unknown I'm calling. Simply because he has position on you.

He might be popping you with AQ/AK/JJ/QQ/KK/AA initially.

Then you pop him...

Now villain is probably thinking "I know he knows I could be popping him with a large range. It's likely hero has a reasonable hand being an unknown but since we're this deep he might actually fold everything but AA".

So he pulls the trigger with an AK/QQish hand. Sure he could have aces, but I think it's not often enough to lay it down.

Also you have no idea how he got his stack or what's been going on at the table. Maybe he was wildly drunk and was shoving every hand preflop.

Is this reasoning bad?

[Middelemiel]

What about a call? Even though it's deepstacked, you still have so many donks on 10NL that do this with 1010+ and AQ+, so I surely would've called.

[jk1986]

I would have thought this is an easy call, following a similar logic to middelemiel, but several good MSNL players say that this is a fold. And they have ground their way up there so have experienced the micros. I'm just interested what the opinions of uNL are wrt whether doesn't have aces enough to call or not?

[tiger_hall]

this is ridiculous... u have the second best hand in NL HE and think that you are going to lay it down... you are dominated by one hand and dominate every other hand in the deck... this thread IMO is a joke... you are never laying KK down unless you have a magical reading ability

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
this is ridiculous... u have the second best hand in NL HE and think that you are going to lay it down... you are dominated by one hand and dominate every other hand in the deck... this thread IMO is a joke... you are never laying KK down unless you have a magical reading ability

[/ QUOTE ]

[CrustyFace]

I wouldn't be calling this unless he is a donk. The number of times the 4th raise has been AA for me in this spot...

[tiger_hall]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be calling this unless he is a donk. The number of times the 4th raise has been AA for me in this spot...

[/ QUOTE ]
this is ridiculous... this is easily being raised by QQ JJ 10 10 AK AQ(maybe) 99... and u lose to AA...
lets look at what we beat... now look at what we lose to... lay it down if you want.. quote from a website...
"In a 6 handed game, you are dealt KK. You raise and an opponent reraises all-in. What are the chances that your opponent has AA"?

Coming back from the break, they said that the correct answer is 1/44. LOL and u want to fold

[jk1986]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is ridiculous... u have the second best hand in NL HE and think that you are going to lay it down... you are dominated by one hand and dominate every other hand in the deck... this thread IMO is a joke... you are never laying KK down unless you have a magical reading ability

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it was as clear cut as that well, until several winning MSNL players posted otherwise.. I still call, but I don't think considering the fold is [ QUOTE ]
rediculous

[/ QUOTE ], aces is clearly the most likely holding for villain, although I do think QQ and AK are in his range enough to make this an easy call.

[jk1986]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be calling this unless he is a donk. The number of times the 4th raise has been AA for me in this spot...

[/ QUOTE ]
this is ridiculous... this is easily being raised by QQ JJ 10 10 AK AQ(maybe) 99... and u lose to AA...
lets look at what we beat... now look at what we lose to... lay it down if you want.. quote from a website...
"In a 6 handed game, you are dealt KK. You raise and an opponent reraises all-in. What are the chances that your opponent has AA"?

Coming back from the break, they said that the correct answer is 1/44. LOL and u want to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

How deep would the stacks have to be for you to consider folding can I ask?

[tiger_hall]

IMO if he has AA then he takes my money and its a cooler but you are not folding in this situation unless you think he has an ace and think that his three outs are too many...

[jk1986]

I'd also add that had I played the hand myself I'd have reads/stats on the players which would make this decision easier for the most part.

So what if the read was that this was a 19/16/4 solid player, hanging around with his 250bb, normally a sign of a decent player. Whats his range in this spot now?

(Obviously if the read was the guy is a tard then this all gets real arbitary)

[jk1986]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO if he has AA then he takes my money and its a cooler but you are not folding in this situation unless you think he has an ace and think that his three outs are too many...

[/ QUOTE ]

You saying that you would never fold KK pre regardless of stack sizes? Or am I misreading?

[tiger_hall]

well this really does come down to reads but for 99% of micro stakes players i am not laying this down...
this could be such a range of hands that you beat soo many that its an easy call..

[jk1986]

Hmm I do still agree that its an easy call, was just curious after a very good player disagreed. He may have been leveling, even though he says that hes entirely serious.

[Bonesy]

With no reads, I fold it.

[DannyOcean_]

This is bad. listen up yo.

Don't fold KK preflop for less than a bazillionty BB's. At MID STAKES, of course this is a fold. because the players there aren't always awful.

At microstakes, there is absolutely no way we can fold this readless. There are so many donks who will push in with ATs trying to be chris moneymaker or whatever they think they are doing. If you hit AA, toughluck, you made the right play and got coolered. Readless, I don't fold KK without like 300-400 BB's. The donks are everywhere. They treat AK like gold. Even if his range is AA, AK, KK, and 1 time in 20 something random like Ax, we still have to call. We have enough equity. There is no way you can fold this readless. It's just awful. awful awful awful. Plus, i believe this is a donk with Ax or a pp more than one in 20.

[jk1986]

OK time for a poll..

[DannyOcean_]

the results of this pole are gonna depress me.

[jk1986]

[ QUOTE ]
This is bad. listen up yo.

Don't fold KK preflop for less than a bazillionty BB's. At MID STAKES, of course this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
The mid stakes players know full well that this is nl10, and that is there reason for calling. At mid stakes I'm pretty sure that this is a much easier call since people are so much more aggressive.

[FullyBoat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be calling this unless he is a donk. The number of times the 4th raise has been AA for me in this spot...

[/ QUOTE ]
this is ridiculous... this is easily being raised by QQ JJ 10 10 AK AQ(maybe) 99... and u lose to AA...
lets look at what we beat... now look at what we lose to... lay it down if you want.. quote from a website...
"In a 6 handed game, you are dealt KK. You raise and an opponent reraises all-in. What are the chances that your opponent has AA"?

Coming back from the break, they said that the correct answer is 1/44. LOL and u want to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

The situation you described is much different from the situation hero has posted. If you bump it with KK and someone immediatly shoves their stack in, of course you call.

But a 4-bet preflop is a much different scenario.

[Bonesy]

Danny, my pokertracker says otherwise, but I agree with your logic.

[DannyOcean_]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if his range is AA, AK, KK, and 1 time in 20 something random like Ax, we still have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess this is the crux of my argument. Readless, there is absolutely no way we can narrow down his range smaller than this. You are joking yourself if you think you can read souls, and this range is about as tight as it gets.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 11246602 900381.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 12637196 900381.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }


When you also factor in the random 1 in 20 Ax, and the pot odds, this has to be a call. I really don't think it's debateable.

[jk1986]

AA 50% - .2
KK 5% - .5
AK 25% - .7
QQ 15% - .8
AT 5% - .7

gives 45.5% equity.. Obv ppl won't agree with range, they never do. But this makes it a call, but the shove wouldn't have to be all that much bigger to make it a fold..

[jk1986]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even if his range is AA, AK, KK, and 1 time in 20 something random like Ax, we still have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess this is the crux of my argument. Readless, there is absolutely no way we can narrow down his range smaller than this. You are joking yourself if you think you can read souls, and this range is about as tight as it gets.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 11246602 900381.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 12637196 900381.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }


When you also factor in the random 1 in 20 Ax, and the pot odds, this has to be a call. I really don't think it's debateable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Danny surely you have to account for the fact that its more likely to be AA than the other parts of his range?

[ocdscale]

[ QUOTE ]
"In a 6 handed game, you are dealt KK. You raise and an opponent reraises all-in. What are the chances that your opponent has AA"?

Coming back from the break, they said that the correct answer is 1/44. LOL and u want to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

There really needs to be a sticky about the use of probability. Thinking like this is garbage and causes people to lose a lot of money.
Suppose you have QTo (which is above average in terms of all-in equity). Someone shoves, do you say to yourself: lololol I'm above average, so I'll win this more times than I lose.
Or suppose you're playing with 1000BB stacks, and eventually facea 6bet-all-in by a nit. You have KK, do you say lololol, chances of AA is only 1/44, of course I call!
Or suppose you hold KK on a monochrome board of AKJT9, someone's been betting all the way and now shoves river. Do you say lololol two pair is the average winning hand, I'm above average here, I call!

Knowing the odds in a vacuum isn't a free pass to ignore everything else.

[FullyBoat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"In a 6 handed game, you are dealt KK. You raise and an opponent reraises all-in. What are the chances that your opponent has AA"?

Coming back from the break, they said that the correct answer is 1/44. LOL and u want to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

There really needs to be a sticky about the use of probability. Thinking like this is garbage and causes people to lose a lot of money.
Suppose you have QTo (which is above average in terms of all-in equity). Someone shoves, do you say to yourself: lololol I'm above average, so I'll win this more times than I lose.
Or suppose you're playing with 1000BB stacks, and eventually facea 6bet-all-in by a nit. You have KK, do you say lololol, chances of AA is only 1/44, of course I call!
Or suppose you hold KK on a monochrome board of AKJT9, someone's been betting all the way and now shoves river. Do you say lololol two pair is the average winning hand, I'm above average here, I call!

Knowing the odds in a vacuum isn't a free pass to ignore everything else.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. The statistic in itself seems kind of strange.

1/44 times that someone re-raises you pre-flop it's AA? Doesn't that depend on the villain's 3-betting range, the stakes, history between players, how drunk everyone is? etc.

[DMBFan23]

I don't know the right answer but I think you should have had the answer you planned to use when you reraised.

[Sean Fraley]

As a normal rule of thumb, I don't fold kings in the micros. On the other hand though, you are 200 BBs deep and facing a fourth raise so a fold isn't completely deplorable. I'd call it anyway though.

[jk1986]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know the right answer but I think you should have had the answer you planned to use when you reraised.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree but its not my hand /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[tiger_hall]

IM NOT FOLDING KINGS PRE FLOP IN LOW STAKES!!!
END OF

[bil]

I checked my PT statistics: 56.000 Hands on NL 10
dealt KK: 86 Hands (Hands against exactly 6 players)
all-in before flop: 15
against AA: 4 (3 of them against full stacked opponents)

I call short stacks. I fold against 200 BB