I hate being OOP

[theflyingcow]

Villian in this hand is a friend and fellow 2p2er. I played this hand a while back in a live game, but while reading through NLHETAP, recalled it and decided to post it as I haven't really done much poker playing / posting lately.

A little background on our home games: blind structure is $.25/.25 although after a little while of play (30 min or so) the average stack gets to be around $60 and after about 2 hours of play, $100-150, but blinds never increase. There are always 2-3 fish at the table me (who almost always has a TAG image), 2-3 LAGs who are almost always in every hand since the table is especially deep and they are very good hand readers and post-flop players.

Relevant Reads: Villian here is a good LAG who is capable of playing both a 60/30/4 game and a 20/15/4 game (stats are estimated). He's capable of opening UTG with trash like 52o and c-betting into 4 people for image purposes, etc, though he doesn't usually mess around in multiway pots and from what I've seen, isn't too fond of slowplaying. At the present moment, he's in LAG mode OTB. On particularly drawy boards, he will both raise big with his draws and his made hands. Now to the hand in question:

Effective stacks: $50

Preflop (8-handed): Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG limps, 2 folds, MP limps, CO folds, <font color=" red">Button (villian) raises to $1.50</font>, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop ($6.25): 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
<font color=" red">Hero bets $5</font>, UTG folds, MP folds, Button calls.

Turn ($16.25): 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero checks, <font color=" red">Button bets $12.50</font>, Hero...

A little lost on this turn. The board is so scary that I know he's capable of betting with air to take it down here, but if I call, another big bet is surely to come on the river. What do you usually do here given reads?

[Spechel EDD]

id rather check raise this spot if hes so aggressive and will be c-betting almost anything.

[theflyingcow]

You mean the flop? Although he is capable of being aggressive, I'm well aware that in position, if he doesn't have much of a hand, he will just give up and check behind. He usually doesn't mess around too much in multiway pots. I know I want to build a big pot in this spot so I can't risk letting it get checked through.

[corsakh]

Since your in the worst relative position, betting first here is optimal, traps a lot more money than a c/r. And the turn is bad. I guess you just have to estimate if he has a straight here any more often than 20% and either fold or push.

[theflyingcow]

[ QUOTE ]
Since your in the worst relative position, betting first here is optimal, traps a lot more money than a c/r. And the turn is bad. I guess you just have to estimate if he has a straight here any more often than 20% and either fold or push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Erm, I think you forgot the fact that we are both really deep stacked (starting effective stack was mine at $50). Pushing here would be quite silly as only straights call me (though I suppose I do have fold equity against lower straights). And also, if he's bluffing the turn, why let him off easy if I know he's capable of bluffing the river as well?

[corsakh]

From your description he is never bluffing here with air. He either made a straight or he is drawing to something and any draw is a combo draw on this texture. He will usually have 15 outs, some to a draw, some to a win. You need to give him less than 1 to 2. There is $29 in the pot now. I am not sure about the exact math right now, but if we count the draw outs, to make it break even you have to make it around $55. Its a little less than that of course since some of these outs are to a draw but it gives you a picture. Your correct raise I imagine would be around $40 leaving you like $5 behind.

[jk1986]

My 2c is that calling here is bad, since half the decks gonna look scary on the river. It's live, I think you should generally have a feeling whether he has it or not, and you should go with that in this marginal situation.