On the final table bubble in a WSOP Event

[rick_vaughn]

7 left in Event #12, $1500 6-max. You are the short stack w/ 300k in chips. Average is 650k, and most stacks are 500k-900k behind you.

The other short stack is at 400k and he just folded in front of you.

Blinds are 10k/20k w/ a 3k ante. A weird thing about this tourney, is that, at 7 left, they combine for one table. They don't let you play 3-handed so they do this.

There's 51k in the pot to begin.

You've pushed all in quite a bit since you combined at 7 to build from 150k to 300k in about an orbit and a half. Once you flipped over AKs when no one called (some people have tanked on a couple of your pushes, showing obvious signs of frustratings but not being able to make thin calls for half their stacks.)

UTG and UTG+1 folds. You look down at 77. Do you push, or raise/fold?

*It should be noted, no one is really going crazy on final table abuse, and there are not many reraises or "plays" being made in general. Most everything is pretty straightforward at this point. The other players are not making thin calls but are gettng a little wary of my pushes.

*You are guaranteed 46k right now. If you make it to the final six, you get to experience a WSOP FT. The money obviously increases dramatically as you increase your place.

[curtains]

Completely obvious allin IMO.

[Cornell Fiji]

Welcome to the forums.

I could not imagine that this is not a shove but post the payout structure and how many chips there were in play and maybe someone will do an ICM calculation

[curtains]

Almost zero chance that any payout structure will make this a non-shove. We have well under the amount of chips we'd need to reach the breakeven point of moving allin with our hand face up, by about 15k chips.

[betgo]

Could you raise/call, with the option to fold to a lot of action?

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
Could you raise/call, with the option to fold to a lot of action?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have been shoving over and over, and then suddenly do something like raise 2-3xbb, your calling range should be even wider than it usually would be.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Could you raise/call, with the option to fold to a lot of action?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have been shoving over and over, and then suddenly do something like raise 2-3xbb, your calling range should be even wider than it usually would be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now your stack is 15xBB, so it makes more sense to raise rather than push than when you had 8-12xBB.

[Exitonly]

i think i like betgos line.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Could you raise/call, with the option to fold to a lot of action?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno I think allin is just too +EV for raising to be better. On bubble like this way too many people might do something weird like call and try to take it away later. Or reraise with something like JTs, which CLEARLY hurts you.

I think moving allin is clearly better by quite a signifigant margin.

[ryanghall]

A hand like 77 is one that will almost certainly play best all-in, IMO.

Ryan

[Eagles]

I either shove or raise call.

[curtains]

Btw I really think raise calling is just a very bad strategy here. It's such a bad thing to get someone to reraise us with overcards in a structure like this. It only helps if they reraise with a smaller pair or something like A5s, but even then it's not like incredibly amazing. It's much more valuable to avoid showdowns here IMO instead of trying to be tricky and getting some bozo to go allin with T9s because they think you are scared of busting on the bubble.

I mean cmon, you have freaking 77 why in the world do you want to encourage action?? It seems just so terrible to me.

[0evg0]

I'd just shove btw.

[nath]

Yeah live I just ship this in

[Exitonly]

i agree that if raising to 3x will encourage random bad overcards hands to shove, that wouldnt have called a shove, that it's a bad option. But i think it's more likely to add underpairs to his range not hands like JTs.

[WarDekar]

Shove otherwise you're going to hate yourself when anything else happens

[Crash0veride]

-What about a thinking player that has seen us Push hand after hand and now we're just making a smallish standard opening raise.
-I feel like a push certainly gives us the best chance to take down the blinds and antes, while a raise still shows a lot of strength and will most likely be respected.
-taking down blinds increases our stack by about 15%.
-2.5/3x bb raise might still take down the blinds or get called and we have an easy decision on the flop, with a chance to either double or take down a larger pot. or maybe lose your original raise but you still have a stack to use to chip up.
-2.5/3x raise gets repopped you have a decision for all your chips depending on your read maybe you can fold and you still have a stack to push and chip up.

Clearly I can articulate all that well, but I think a smallish/ standard raise gives you the most options and still puts fear into people to act behind.

[renodoc]

jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam jam

(thanks Nath)

[Mcbrag]

Raise/Fold. The other players all know what your doing. They know you had to go all in prior to this b/c of your short stack, but that you some chips now. This is a good stealing hand, but if someone goes over the top you are almost certainly beaten and at best racing. Plus, if they didn't already know why you were all in before then maybe they will be suspiscious of your small raise and fold some otherwise playable hands.

[Doylestown]

[ QUOTE ]

I mean cmon, you have freaking 77 why in the world do you want to encourage action?? It seems just so terrible to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MychCumstien]

this is an EASY shove. Why make a small raise and encourage behind you? Do you really want to play 77 OOP on the short stack for the rest of hand? You've got a nice stack size. Shove now. More often than not everyone folds to you and you pick up the blinds.

[Exitonly]

[censored] EXPLAIN THOGUHTS PEOPLE. IF YOU THINK ITS GOING TO ENCOURAGE ACTION, THEN FROM WHAT HANDS? Lets see some calling ranges.

Here are sample ranges that would make sense to raise-call, even though a bunch of broadway cards were also added to his range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.483% 58.75% 00.74% 585444000 7336914.00 { 66+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 40.517% 39.78% 00.74% 396443100 7336914.00 { 77 }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.945% 49.39% 00.56% 918378516 10383498.00 { 22+, A9s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 50.055% 49.50% 00.56% 920416632 10383498.00 { 77 }

[GoldenBears]

For any number of many valid reasons, shove.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
For any number of many valid reasons, shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was this trying to just piss me off?

One line answers arent always bad. But when we've had 22 replies, we dont need you to be he 16th person to say "shove for reasons". [censored] TELL ME THE REASONS. Do you think all pairs are calling our shove? Do you think underpairs are goign to fold to a 3x? also, do you think it's often that we'll be flat called with our stack size? and if so, why is that such a disaster? better pairs are almost certainly not smooth calling us, so we should be able to play pretty well on flops

[shaundeeb]

I hate how 77 plays postflop so I shove. If they CC PF they prob have a hand with 2 overs and if they pair them they aren't folding so you get your stack in behind if they miss they fold and rightfully so. I hate a hand like 77 with close to a PSB left vs bad players cuz they make you stick your stack in there everytime hoping they missed their hole cards.

Picking up the 50k in the pot is huge now you can resteal way wider vs the stacks. Since you said people weren't doing that, that much when you do it the first 1-2 times you may get respect and they fold a strong hand. So then you are now upto 450-550k stack and now can play poker for the rest of the ft bubble.

[BUTNAHHHH]

shove this, all day every day

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[censored] EXPLAIN THOGUHTS PEOPLE. IF YOU THINK ITS GOING TO ENCOURAGE ACTION, THEN FROM WHAT HANDS? Lets see some calling ranges.

Here are sample ranges that would make sense to raise-call, even though a bunch of broadway cards were also added to his range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.483% 58.75% 00.74% 585444000 7336914.00 { 66+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 40.517% 39.78% 00.74% 396443100 7336914.00 { 77 }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.945% 49.39% 00.56% 918378516 10383498.00 { 22+, A9s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 50.055% 49.50% 00.56% 920416632 10383498.00 { 77 }

[/ QUOTE ]



Sorry but this is extremely unconvincing to me. The 10% difference in equity is nice but really not that big a deal. Also you allow the pot to be called when you just raise. The money in the pot incraeses your stack by about 1/6th, I think its completely insane to make some standard raise to maybe gain 10% equity on the freaking bubble!! I mean you go from 30k to 35k by just stealing the blinds which is RIDICULOUSLY IMPORTANT yet people seriously want to encourage action here?

Honestly I just think it's just terrible to not go allin, sorry I keep repeating myself. A clear example of trying to overcomplicate things to maybe gain some small amount of EV, which I'm almost completely sure you are not going to get.


FWIW if Exitonly is exactly correct about those ranges, and no one will ever call us but only reraise, our chip EV between the two plays is worth about a third of a BB. We are really going to go this crazy on the bubble for the possibility that if everything breaks perfect, our chip EV goes up by about 1000 when stealing the blinds gets us from 30k to 35k? The fact that we instantly make more money if someone else busts means that this confrontation will be worth clearly LESS than 1/3rd of a BB, the only question is how much less. So MAYBE itll be worth 1/5th of a BB more than going allin if everything is almost exactly perfect. You simply don't do this crap on the bubble with a hand like 77.


The only way this play makes any sense is if they are raising pairs under 77 when we make a standard raise, but not doing so if we go allin (ok maybe if u can get some hand like A6s to go crazy too). Otherwise you've just encouraged action that you are clearly opposed to.

[Exitonly]

"The only way this play makes any sense is if they are raising pairs under 77 when we make a standard raise, but not doing so if we go allin "


Which was my point, and i was just saying that i think it's certainly possible. I'm not really arguing for raise-call, i just think there are some good points for doing so, and up until just now no one had done math about what the difference would be.

Also, why is them calling such a disaster? Wont they be folding the majority of flops if they call? (and if they're not then we'll have gotten it in good on the flop some % of the time?)

I dont see why the *BUBBLE* means anything really, we're ITM, i'd like to see the payjump from 7th to 6th, because its probably not THAT huge.

[renodoc]

I think that 7 handed, one from the FT, you can get too caught up in FPS here. The table is playing ABC. If you shove here, anyone with a stack that you threaten has a calling range of about two hands. If you want to "encourage action" wait until you have one of those two hands yourself.

[Exitonly]

So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently.

[curtains]

Ok I entered the prize structure and did some major calculations with the exact structure. It turns out that the pure EV between the two calling ranges is almost exactly even. Exitonly's looser range is worth a very tiny amount more than the tighter range. However IMO these are sort of a best case scenario.

For instance if you simply take 22 out of his range, the two ranges immediately become equal in EV. This is because we strongly don't want action due to the prize increase gained by every elimination. Regardless of what it may seem, these things always have an affect, and usually its a bit more than people would guess. This is kind of why I think the comments about how you should not care about squeaking into the money at all are also incorrect. It always does mean something to squeak into the money, whether it feels like it or not.


Also we don't want callers. Our hand simply doesn't play that great postflop, we could get multiple callers which is very bad for a hand like 77, and we could also get stop and go'ed on quite a few flops where we would have extreme difficulty continuing.

In any case feel free to do the math yourself (I used SNGPT and had to edit the prize structure), but the EV difference between the two ranges is exceptionally small. Simply subtract 22 and add A9o to the list, and facing this range is now worse than the much tighter range. You are playing a very dangerous game getting involved in this stuff when every elimination pays you more money.

[Exitonly]

alright i'm pretty convinced. At what point do you think you'd start raise-calling? or would you just shove with this stack with your whole range (minus like AA/KK)

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
alright i'm pretty convinced. At what point do you think you'd start raise-calling? or would you just shove with this stack with your whole range (minus like AA/KK)

[/ QUOTE ]


Tough one. I don't know that I'd ever raise call. You know in this special case I would with big hands like AA-QQ, because it seems that I don't have to be opening allin. Usually I like to balance that by raising some hands that I would clearly fold to an allin, but I think it's a bit too danerous to do that here.

So, uhh in theory in this exact spot, if I don't go allin I probably have AA-KK. Maybe I could raise fold some ace hands, like A8o, A9o etc, but would depend how I felt about the table.


btw you should do the math yourself, its of course very possible I made an error somewhere.

[NHFunkii]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For any number of many valid reasons, shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was this trying to just piss me off?

[/ QUOTE ]

easy shove

[renodoc]

[ QUOTE ]
So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]


huh? Of course I think they are calling 99+, whether it's correct or not against our range, I'm not so sure.

[renodoc]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]


huh? Of course I think they are calling 99+, whether it's correct or not against our range, I'm not so sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

crap, i had to refresh the stack sizes. you are probably right, but I still hate it.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]


huh? Of course I think they are calling 99+, whether it's correct or not against our range, I'm not so sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

crap, i had to refresh the stack sizes. you are probably right, but I still hate it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You hate calling with 99?

[renodoc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]


huh? Of course I think they are calling 99+, whether it's correct or not against our range, I'm not so sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

crap, i had to refresh the stack sizes. you are probably right, but I still hate it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You hate calling with 99?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate being called by 99.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]


huh? Of course I think they are calling 99+, whether it's correct or not against our range, I'm not so sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

crap, i had to refresh the stack sizes. you are probably right, but I still hate it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You hate calling with 99?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate being called by 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I hate being called by 88 too. btw I wouldn't be completely shocked if someone folded 88 to a push (and they probably should against what our range will be here.) I suppose there is also some possibility of someone folding 99 but I'd be surprised. However it's above 0 chance, people play very strangely in these spots.

[renodoc]

[ QUOTE ]
[

huh? Of course I think they are calling 99+, whether it's correct or not against our range, I'm not so sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

crap, i had to refresh the stack sizes. you are probably right, but I still hate it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You hate calling with 99?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate being called by 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I hate being called by 88 too. btw I wouldn't be completely shocked if someone folded 88 to a push (and they probably should against what our range will be here.) I suppose there is also some possibility of someone folding 99 but I'd be surprised. However it's above 0 chance, people play very strangely in these spots.

[/ QUOTE ]


Sure, its above 0 chance.

We have the button and blinds to act after us, right? And they all have us covered but its going to be somewhere between 30-50% of their stack to call. Do players who have survived flipaments for two days take one here? Real life behaviour is often, as you've pointed out, very different from ideal play. I still think there is a big gap concept at work on this kind of shove. The guy in the SB or BB with a healthy stack sure wants to keep it that way going into the FT...

[curtains]

We have the cutoff, button and blinds to act after us.

[rick_vaughn]

Thanks for the responses. I know pushing is fine, just seeing if it was viable to raise and reevaluate. Pushing with 15bb's feels a little weird, even w/ large antes.

I got snap called by AA in the SB. I know if I opened for 3xbb and he reraised I could fold easily (I had played with him alot the past 2 days.) Others behind me were aggressive enough to where I'd have to stack off.

I'm also a pretty regular poster but I'm permabanned (but won't get IP banned since I live with a 2p2 legend,) but still wanted to see opinions. You always think twice about these kind of plays in the biggest poker moment of your life.

[coxquinn]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the responses. I know pushing is fine, just seeing if it was viable to raise and reevaluate. Pushing with 15bb's feels a little weird, even w/ large antes.

I got snap called by AA in the SB. I know if I opened for 3xbb and he reraised I could fold easily (I had played with him alot the past 2 days.) Others behind me were aggressive enough to where I'd have to stack off.

I'm also a pretty regular poster but I'm permabanned (but won't get IP banned since I live with a 2p2 legend,) but still wanted to see opinions. You always think twice about these kind of plays in the biggest poker moment of your life.

[/ QUOTE ]

whatv ray screw the haters--My plan was bet/call against anyone but especially given this read that one guy you can fold to and the others snap call I think its fine to bet/call or bet/fold. And I used to play SNG's all the time so I understand ICM and push/fold.

[Riverman]

obvious allin.

[cakewalk]

definitely limp

what is our shoving range here anyway?