Another 6max wsop hand

[SossMan]

Hopefully this one won't be so trivial as the last one...

I am at my 2nd table of the day.

I had been at the table for about half a level and had been pretty ABC in terms of tightness and aggression. Table didn't seem as soft as my previous one and we were scheduled to break, so I wasn't going to risk too much unless I got in a good spot.

Blinds were 100-200 a25.
SB was virtually non-existant and BB had a decent stack and seemed like he sort of had a clue.

I opened on the button for 575 with 54s and only BB called.
I start the hand w/ 5500 and he has me slightly covered.

Pot is 1400.

Flop is J95r.

He checkcalls 600.

Turn is 8 and it goes check check.

River is 5 w/ no flushes possible and he leads for 700.

What's the plan?

I have 4325 left.

[LB_001]

I raise big to try to make it look like I'm bluffing over such a weak lead. Probably just stare at his bet about 3 seconds and go all in. If he trapped you with such a small bet with a set or Q10 I tip my hat.

[curtains]

Yea I would make a big raise too, hard to put you on a big hand, since most aren't checking behind on a board of J985, could easily look like a bluff and decide to call you with whatever he was value betting.

[0evg0]

I'm not sure what worse hands are calling a raise of any kind.

[Eagles]

Shove

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what worse hands are calling a raise of any kind.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think plenty may put him on a huge bluff after making such a weak value bet on the river. People bluff in these spots all the time.

[0evg0]

Oh yeah, I mean obviously raise. I'm just saying I think we're rarely getting called.

[LB_001]

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I'm not sure what worse hands are calling a raise of any kind.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think plenty may put him on a huge bluff after making such a weak value bet on the river. People bluff in these spots all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he'll fold a high % of the time but I think shoving is the best way to get chips. It's also player dependent to some extent, against a good player I'd shove all day, against a tight or bad player that isnt likely to make a big call I might make a small value raise but it seems like a very transparent play. When you shove your range seems to go to overpair or better (which given your line is somewhat unlikely), or nothing which might induce a call from any pair hopefully.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh yeah, I mean obviously raise. I'm just saying I think we're rarely getting called.

[/ QUOTE ]

So then we should always raise if we have nothing in this spot?

[J.A.K.]

Does anyone just CALL with the 16th nuts?

[0evg0]

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[ QUOTE ]
Oh yeah, I mean obviously raise. I'm just saying I think we're rarely getting called.

[/ QUOTE ]

So then we should always raise if we have nothing in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

You know better than to use words like "always." And that goes for you saying river c/r's are always bluffs too.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

But I haven't played live in forever, and this is so obviously player and read dependent anyway.

[SossMan]

what about raise/folding?

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
what about raise/folding?

[/ QUOTE ]
3.3k in the pot, 4 and change behind, are we really going to fold and leave ourself 10xbb? So we fold getting 6-1?

We can agree that he is never folding a better hand. So forget about those cases.
First, analyzing the potential call-fold in isolation, if we assume he is good, I don't know how often a bluff is profitable. So it comes down to how often he will value jam 2 pair or worse, you might be right that folding would be right in this case. Although, I wouldn't completely rule out him thinking "well I can't fold J8, I only have 2k left, might as well jam"

Basically, raising with the intention of folding introduces the possibility that we make a HUGE mistake by folding. Is that worth it, to get an extra 1300 chips the % of time he calls? I doubt it. I think the range that calls 2k, calls a push pretty frequently.

To me, this is a case where folding the best hand is the risk I am looking to avoid. I would need to be dead certain with my reads to try it, personally, that doesn't work for me.

[bigbabyjesus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what about raise/folding?

[/ QUOTE ]
3.3k in the pot, 4 and change behind, are we really going to fold and leave ourself 10xbb? So we fold getting 6-1?

We can agree that he is never folding a better hand. So forget about those cases.
First, analyzing the potential call-fold in isolation, if we assume he is good, I don't know how often a bluff is profitable. So it comes down to how often he will value jam 2 pair or worse, you might be right that folding would be right in this case. Although, I wouldn't completely rule out him thinking "well I can't fold J8, I only have 2k left, might as well jam"

Basically, raising with the intention of folding introduces the possibility that we make a HUGE mistake by folding. Is that worth it, to get an extra 1300 chips the % of time he calls? I doubt it. I think the range that calls 2k, calls a push pretty frequently.

To me, this is a case where folding the best hand is the risk I am looking to avoid. I would need to be dead certain with my reads to try it, personally, that doesn't work for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I pretty much would never ever expect someone to 3-bet this river with a worse hand in a live WSOP donkament.

I like raise/folding. A smaller raise is more likely to get called by a jack IMO. Although a big raise would look "bluffier" in theory most people still will like the cheaper price when it comes to calling a raise.

I hate stacking off on this river because QT is such a possibility.

After playing a few live tournametns this past week I can very safely fold if 3-bet all-in..

[A_PLUS]

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what about raise/folding?

[/ QUOTE ]
3.3k in the pot, 4 and change behind, are we really going to fold and leave ourself 10xbb? So we fold getting 6-1?

We can agree that he is never folding a better hand. So forget about those cases.
First, analyzing the potential call-fold in isolation, if we assume he is good, I don't know how often a bluff is profitable. So it comes down to how often he will value jam 2 pair or worse, you might be right that folding would be right in this case. Although, I wouldn't completely rule out him thinking "well I can't fold J8, I only have 2k left, might as well jam"

Basically, raising with the intention of folding introduces the possibility that we make a HUGE mistake by folding. Is that worth it, to get an extra 1300 chips the % of time he calls? I doubt it. I think the range that calls 2k, calls a push pretty frequently.

To me, this is a case where folding the best hand is the risk I am looking to avoid. I would need to be dead certain with my reads to try it, personally, that doesn't work for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I pretty much would never ever expect someone to 3-bet this river with a worse hand in a live WSOP donkament.

I like raise/folding. A smaller raise is more likely to get called by a jack IMO. Although a big raise would look "bluffier" in theory most people still will like the cheaper price when it comes to calling a raise.

I hate stacking off on this river because QT is such a possibility.

After playing a few live tournametns this past week I can very safely fold if 3-bet all-in..

[/ QUOTE ]

You are probably right, I tend to over-estimate these spots when I play live.
I still don't know that the risk of folding the better hand is worth the risk of what amounts to be a few BBs in EV. Basically I prefer to minimize the chance that a read will cause me to to blow a huge hand. So, I take the "conservative" route and jam.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
what about raise/folding?

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course not. Sorry he had you beat.

You are making a significant raise. If he reraises, you are probably beat, but at this point, you are getting big odds.

[woodguy]

$2K to go, preferably 2 1K chips.... only 1300 to call, probably folding to a lot of raises, but still calling some. If he seems snug only make it one more $1K chip to call...that leave him with enough to be comfortable calling with a pair.

I know a fun play online is to make a huge overbet so he makes a heroic call with JQo, but here I like just a little bit more.

Regards,
Woodguy

[bugstud]

I don't think anyone is really trying to read bb's hand like at all.

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think anyone is really trying to read bb's hand like at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

But that's because his range is super wide.

[AceCR9]

I really prefer just calling here. online in like a $50-100 6m MTT I'd shove all day though. however I don't see KJ turbo calling live.

yes, the majority of the time he will flip his weak Jack or nine, and you will show your winning hand, he may say somthing like "nice catch" and go onto the next hand.


I just do not see anything worse calling a shove. aside from Q10, A5, 88 are definitely in his range and I could see him playing them like this.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]

But that's because his range is super wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think AT+, any pair, the OE straight draws, KQ, and a decent amount of air. I had a hard time knocking much out by the action. I got there with pretty much everything, excluding some % of the air.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think anyone is really trying to read bb's hand like at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could have a little as a 9, and as much as 99.....lots of hands there.

I think something like AJo or KJs is probable.

[SossMan]

So I thought that I should be able to squeeze some value out of his most likely hands like top pair or two pair since my hand wasn't too obvious. I also was pretty sure that he's not shoving there w/ anything that I'm beating, so it looked like a good spot to raise/fold.

I was playing w/ my chips for a bit trying to determine how much I should raise when I finally flipped out three 500 chips for 1500. I guess he thought that I was contemplating a call/fold because he nearly turned his cards over before he realized I raised.
He gave me raised eyebrows and shrugged his shoulder as he took the chip off his cards, added it to his chip tower and one-handedly slid the whole thing into the pot for an allin.
I didn't turbo muck because I really wanted to see his cards, but alas, as i folded he didn't show.

[curtains]

How many chips did you have left after the raise?

[NYWalker]

[ QUOTE ]
Hopefully this one won't be so trivial as the last one...

I am at my 2nd table of the day.

I had been at the table for about half a level and had been pretty ABC in terms of tightness and aggression. Table didn't seem as soft as my previous one and we were scheduled to break, so I wasn't going to risk too much unless I got in a good spot.

Blinds were 100-200 a25.
SB was virtually non-existant and BB had a decent stack and seemed like he sort of had a clue.

I opened on the button for 575 with 54s and only BB called.
I start the hand w/ 5500 and he has me slightly covered.

Pot is 1400.

Flop is J95r.

He checkcalls 600.

Turn is 8 and it goes check check.

River is 5 w/ no flushes possible and he leads for 700.

What's the plan?

I have 4325 left.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call.

His ranges doesn't have a single Jack.

At the river, he either has a boat/straight or a busted draw. Your raise will get no money (maybe a push back) from a busted draw. His turn check and bet the river is very dangerous for you. Never raise this river.

[Melchiades]

[ QUOTE ]
Call.

His ranges doesn't have a single Jack.

At the river, he either has a boat/straight or a busted draw. Your raise will get no money (maybe a push back) from a busted draw. His turn check and bet the river is very dangerous for you. Never raise this river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Minboggling analysis. Are you serious? Could you please give me the reason why he never has a J or two (three /images/graemlins/laugh.gif) pair here?

[djk123]

I'd shove. I don't think there's any way he can put you on a 5.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
How many chips did you have left after the raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

about 3k.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what about raise/folding?

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course not. Sorry he had you beat.

You are making a significant raise. If he reraises, you are probably beat, but at this point, you are getting big odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't get why so many people think we should jam this river. It makes no sense.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
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what about raise/folding?

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course not. Sorry he had you beat.

You are making a significant raise. If he reraises, you are probably beat, but at this point, you are getting big odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't get why so many people think we should jam this river. It makes no sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like a bluff. People often make hero calls in those spots. I sure would consider calling without that big a hand if I made a weak bet of 700.

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
what about raise/folding?

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course not. Sorry he had you beat.

You are making a significant raise. If he reraises, you are probably beat, but at this point, you are getting big odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that out of all possible raise sizes, shove looks the weakest. It's not even really an overbet; it's like a psb.

I really don't get why so many people think we should jam this river. It makes no sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

[sheetsworld]

I am not greedy. I call. I am not getting beat by the 14th nuts for too much money.

sheets

[Riverman]

No offense, but this is horrible.

If you're raising here, you can't fold.

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
No offense, but this is horrible.

If you're raising here, you can't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're going to say something is horrible, at least support it. As is, you're very wrong.

If you raise he is never value shoving worse than trips here and it's unlikely he's bluffing. I like making it 2k on end, since I think he'll show up w/ a top pair that intends to bet/call fairly often

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
No offense, but this is horrible.

If you're raising here, you can't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? please support with a hand ranges.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
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what about raise/folding?

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course not. Sorry he had you beat.

You are making a significant raise. If he reraises, you are probably beat, but at this point, you are getting big odds.

[/ QUOTE ]


I really don't get why so many people think we should jam this river. It makes no sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

"I think that out of all possible raise sizes, shove looks the weakest. It's not even really an overbet; it's like a psb."

This is so different live in a WSOP event than in an online $100 event. People pretty much never 3 bet there w/ a worse hand. You are almost never folding out worse hands (besides complete air) either.