QQ in the WSOP $650.

[TwistedEcho]

100 people left, 35 get seats. Average stack is about 15k. My table has been pretty tight and i have been opening a few hands, but really not that active. So far pretty much all my hands played have been me raising preflop and everyone folding.

Seat 1: centgas (11669 in chips)
Seat 2: Suited-Hooks (29193 in chips)
Seat 3: franko 4 (12840 in chips)
Seat 4: TwistedEcho (10107 in chips)
Seat 5: PacMann (11626 in chips)
Seat 6: silvermvric (19335 in chips)
Seat 7: clickandwin (19935 in chips)
Seat 8: shaun69uk (26080 in chips)
Seat 9: Gamecock1 (8557 in chips)
centgas: posts the ante 25
Suited-Hooks: posts the ante 25
franko 4: posts the ante 25
TwistedEcho: posts the ante 25
PacMann: posts the ante 25
silvermvric: posts the ante 25
clickandwin: posts the ante 25
shaun69uk: posts the ante 25
Gamecock1: posts the ante 25
shaun69uk: posts small blind 200
Gamecock1: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TwistedEcho [Qs Qd]
centgas: folds
Suited-Hooks: folds
franko 4: folds
TwistedEcho: raises 800 to 1200
PacMann: folds
silvermvric: folds
clickandwin: folds
shaun69uk: raises 10000 to 11200
Gamecock1: (instantly)calls 8132 and is all-in
TwistedEcho hates life, and?

[curtains]

I think we must call, probably close to 33% equity here, which is more than we need.

ie if one guys range is QQ+,AKs,AKo

and the original allin guy is: KK-99,AQs+,AQo+


I dunno maybe its SLIGHTLY too loose for the first allin guy, but who knows. Either way we should be getting around the equity we need, despite it being quite unpleasant.

[johnnyrocket]

i call but hate myself, i think we def have the equity here like curtains is saying, with our stack we need to gather lots of chips to make it deeper and this is a spot i think we need to go with. If we had tons of chips i'd consider otherwise.

[Eagles]

Fold, I don't think its close

edit: KK is probably a fold also

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold, I don't think its close

edit: KK is probably a fold also

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand how you could fold KK here.

[mikeJ]

Curtains, I think giving a range of QQ+/AK for BB when he instacalls is definitely too loose. Maybe give like 4 combos of AK and like 2 combos of QQ. I think QQ is a fold.

However, I don't see how you can fold KK here. Between the occasional BB who thinks AK/QQ is the nuts and that KK is way ahead of SB's range (there's a side pot after all), I don't see how you could ever fold KK here.

[mikeJ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.087% 23.12% 00.96% 1086512566 45326963.33 { QQ }
Hand 1: 58.719% 56.76% 01.96% 2667200588 91965809.33 { KK+, QdQs, QhQs, AKs }
Hand 2: 17.194% 15.62% 01.57% 733947512 73991273.33 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.890% 31.20% 03.70% 1046787854 123989748.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 49.240% 45.38% 03.86% 1522685460 129604158.00 { KK+, QdQs, QhQs, AKs }
Hand 2: 15.870% 15.36% 00.51% 515369782 17168790.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.632% 64.31% 01.32% 303928758 6246258.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 34.368% 33.05% 01.32% 156174630 6246258.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.520% 74.78% 00.74% 372622338 3677328.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 24.480% 23.74% 00.74% 118303470 3677328.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Curtains, I think giving a range of QQ+/AK for BB when he instacalls is definitely too loose. Maybe give like 4 combos of AK and like 2 combos of QQ. I think QQ is a fold.

However, I don't see how you can fold KK here. Between the occasional BB who thinks AK/QQ is the nuts and that KK is way ahead of SB's range (there's a side pot after all), I don't see how you could ever fold KK here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well we have QQ, so its not like they are often going to have QQ. We are 40% against AA/KK and AK and some chance both players duplicate with AK.

Folding KK is of course the worst thing in history. So you think this player is going to fold AK in this spot?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.087% 23.12% 00.96% 1086512566 45326963.33 { QQ }
Hand 1: 58.719% 56.76% 01.96% 2667200588 91965809.33 { KK+, QdQs, QhQs, AKs }
Hand 2: 17.194% 15.62% 01.57% 733947512 73991273.33 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.890% 31.20% 03.70% 1046787854 123989748.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 49.240% 45.38% 03.86% 1522685460 129604158.00 { KK+, QdQs, QhQs, AKs }
Hand 2: 15.870% 15.36% 00.51% 515369782 17168790.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.632% 64.31% 01.32% 303928758 6246258.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 34.368% 33.05% 01.32% 156174630 6246258.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.520% 74.78% 00.74% 372622338 3677328.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 24.480% 23.74% 00.74% 118303470 3677328.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]


So you think the guy will play AKs but not AKo?? Seems like a weird conclusion. I actually have a hard time thinking of any situation where some random internet player would fold AKo but play AKs.

[curtains]

btw please note that we have 3200 chips after the hand if we beat the other player. This factor does mean something.

[TwistedEcho]

Fwiw i really don't see folding KK as an option here, but QQ seems really close. I have no idea how much you should be accounting for the fact this is a sat either, since i really don't play many sats.

[TheNewf]

Fold QQ, call KK.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Fwiw i really don't see folding KK as an option here, but QQ seems really close. I have no idea how much you should be accounting for the fact this is a sat either, since i really don't play many sats.

[/ QUOTE ]


It really all depends on how often you think they will make this play with AK or JJ. For a lot of people AK = AA, in the sense that they will always be willing to instantly call off all their chips with it.

[curtains]

x

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Curtains, I think giving a range of QQ+/AK for BB when he instacalls is definitely too loose. Maybe give like 4 combos of AK and like 2 combos of QQ. I think QQ is a fold.

However, I don't see how you can fold KK here. Between the occasional BB who thinks AK/QQ is the nuts and that KK is way ahead of SB's range (there's a side pot after all), I don't see how you could ever fold KK here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well we have QQ, so its not like they are often going to have QQ. We are 40% against AA/KK and AK and some chance both players duplicate with AK.

Folding KK is of course the worst thing in history. So you think this player is going to fold AK in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most villains will not instacall w/ AK. Also, I think pokerstove accounts for our cards when determining how many combos of hands our oppt can hold, i.e., if we hold Qd, villain cannot.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.087% 23.12% 00.96% 1086512566 45326963.33 { QQ }
Hand 1: 58.719% 56.76% 01.96% 2667200588 91965809.33 { KK+, QdQs, QhQs, AKs }
Hand 2: 17.194% 15.62% 01.57% 733947512 73991273.33 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.890% 31.20% 03.70% 1046787854 123989748.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 49.240% 45.38% 03.86% 1522685460 129604158.00 { KK+, QdQs, QhQs, AKs }
Hand 2: 15.870% 15.36% 00.51% 515369782 17168790.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.632% 64.31% 01.32% 303928758 6246258.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 34.368% 33.05% 01.32% 156174630 6246258.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.520% 74.78% 00.74% 372622338 3677328.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 24.480% 23.74% 00.74% 118303470 3677328.00 { KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]


So you think the guy will play AKs but not AKo?? Seems like a weird conclusion. I actually have a hard time thinking of any situation where some random internet player would fold AKo but play AKs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just put AKs in the range because I previously said that it may be more appropriate to weight villain's range such that there are 4 combos of AK. AKs = 4 combos of the total 16 combos of AK.

[MychCumstien]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold QQ, call KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Crispy]

I gueeeess because its a satellite, this could make QQ a fold. Yeah kinda sucks though.

[Eagles]

[ QUOTE ]
Gamecock1: (instantly)calls 8132 and is all-in

[/ QUOTE ]
This is like AA or KK always

[THEOSU]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Gamecock1: (instantly)calls 8132 and is all-in

[/ QUOTE ]
This is like AA or KK always

[/ QUOTE ]


and every so often it's a misclick.

[Eagles]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Gamecock1: (instantly)calls 8132 and is all-in

[/ QUOTE ]
This is like AA or KK always

[/ QUOTE ]


and every so often it's a misclick.

[/ QUOTE ]
Very good point. Your right I definetely overlooked this.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we must call, probably close to 33% equity here, which is more than we need.

ie if one guys range is QQ+,AKs,AKo

and the original allin guy is: KK-99,AQs+,AQo+


I dunno maybe its SLIGHTLY too loose for the first allin guy, but who knows. Either way we should be getting around the equity we need, despite it being quite unpleasant.

[/ QUOTE ]

But we're not playing for first??

This looks like an easy fold imo. That instacall is going to be AA/KK a ton.

[Pudge714]

If your read on the insta call is that strong, I think it's a fold and I think KK could be one to. His range for instacalling here has to be pretty close to KK+.

[curtains]

ehh probably folding is fine, I submit. But if they play this way with AK it shouldn't be.

[Doylestown]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Gamecock1: (instantly)calls 8132 and is all-in

[/ QUOTE ]
This is like AA or KK always

[/ QUOTE ]

[THAY3R]

What do you mean by instacall?

Was it just very quickly so it be interpreted as he made the call in a no brainer fashion right away, or was it literally instantly which could easily mean it was a misclick(not sure on the software, but seems like that means he was planning on calling so it's not like his range is random, it's still narrow)

To me this seems like such an easy call that I'm wondering if there's anything I'm missing. You're so far away from the "money" and below average stack that the fact that it's a satellite I don't think it really effects this decision.

[Shocker101]

Insta call and pray you are against AK and JJ I would think alot of the time the instacall could be Jacks.

[Crash0veride]

Really close decisiion, In a really tough field, I'd have to call given our stack and how far away from a seat we are. I think this is a different decision if you think you're one of the best player left in the sat.

[whynot?]

so hundred left and 35 gets seats - so a 35% based on pure math - you're under avg but better then most so lets say the 35% is a fair representation of your chances. Lets further assume that if you win this pot, you jump to 100% - know thats not right but for ease of math lets assume thats correct. evaluating the ranges that make you a 35% fav (actually a 36.5% chance of winning) says original raiser at 88+, ajs, aqo+, kqs and caller on JJ+, AK+. think pretty reasonable ranges.

I think i call here based on the fact that you're way ahead of villain 1's range and will still be in the tourney if you lose.

[TwistedEcho]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you mean by instacall?


[/ QUOTE ]

It was as if he had checked a 'call any bet' button, he was allin pretty fast.

[OminousRun]

I'm never a big advocate of calling yourself all in preflop with anything less than AA or KK. You still have 20+ BB left after you fold - why do you want to gamble vs 2 other guys in that spot?

If they were both smaller stacks I might call there w/ QQ, but to call yourself allin at that spot is a mistake, imo.