NL25 - TPTK vs RR

[gulon]

> Should I have reraised UTG's bet to $15?
> Correct to fold to BB's bet?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $28.00
BB: $18.50
UTG: $20.35
UTG+1: $12.70
<font color="black">Hero (MP1): $42.65</font>
MP2: $27.55
MP3: $12.65
CO: $16.25
BTN: $6.25

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (9 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, 4 folds, SB calls $1.15, BB calls $1.00, UTG calls $1.00

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($5) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $5.00</font>, Hero calls $5.00, SB folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $12.00</font>, 2 folds
Uncalled bet of $7.00 returned to BB

Pot Size: $20.00 ($1 Rake)

[Pokey]

Preflop is good.

On the flop I like the smooth-call, just because I'm a big fan of giving players enough rope to hang themselves, but an immediate raise that isolates with what is likely to be the best hand is not a bad play either. After BB raises and everybody else folds, your play is to PUSH, not FOLD. This board is draw-heavy and you've shown little strength so far; get the money in with your TPTK against a shorty. He'll have to call the extra $5 bet, and he could easily have a hand that you beat badly: AQ, QT, KQ, T9, /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif, QQ....If he hit his set, you lose, and that's unfortunate but a fact of life. This is your flop -- play it like you've got it, because you do.

I just can't find a fold here without a read on BB.

[members_only]

[ QUOTE ]


I just can't find a fold here without a read on BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm very weak but I can't find a call/push here without a read on BB. It's a multiway raised pot, someone's led into it with a PSB from early position, you've called, and now this guy comes over the top on a very scary board. He'd have to be pretty aggressive to do this with something you're ahead of, apart from maybe a combo draw, and I don't know how likely that is.

[Nick C]

You're effectively getting a little over 5:2 (if you play versus BB's checkraise, you're playing for stacks), so I think you should call or push with your TPTK. That said, I do think BB is probably ahead of you. What you're mainly hoping for is that he's got a strong draw or that your flop call convinced him that his worse king was good.

Earlier, on this very drawish board, I probably would raise the flop. There is a drawback to this, which is that you could easily be behind on this board and a raise basically commits you, but hopefully no one has KJ or 88.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

It's a multiway raised pot, someone's led into it with a PSB from early position, you've called, and now this guy comes over the top on a very scary board. He'd have to be pretty aggressive to do this with something you're ahead of, apart from maybe a combo draw, and I don't know how likely that is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Put BB on a hand that is consistent with the play so far.

KK? Incredibly unlikely since we have a K and there was no preflop raise.

JJ? Equally unlikely because it's a hand that loves to raise preflop.

88? Possible....There are only 3 combos of this hand, but it's consistent with the check-raise.

KJ? Unlikely to call a preflop raise unless it's suited, and that means there's only one possible combination (in hearts).

K8/J8? These hands won't call preflop.

A/images/graemlins/spade.gif x/images/graemlins/spade.gif? Players love to play suited aces, though the check-raise to less than all-in makes that less likely. I'd accept A/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (flush draw + pair) or A/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif or A/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (flush draw + inside straight draw) as possibilities here, but the others seem unlikely.

AK? Always a possibility, perhaps even with a freeroll for our opponent from A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. We'd still have to call based on pot odds alone.

KQ? Also possible, though less likely, even with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

AA? Usually raises preflop.

QQ? Usually raises preflop.

Squeeze bluff? An interesting possibility, though unlikely at these levels.

I'd say the most likely hand that beats us is 88, and the most likely hands that we beat are A/images/graemlins/spade.gif x/images/graemlins/spade.gif and KQ. Given that we're looking at paying about $12 to win about $32, we only have to be right about 37% of the time for this to be a payout for us, and I think that happens. I think your folding equity is very low, but I also think you'll win this pot often enough for the push to be +EV, though it may very well work out to be less than 50% of the time.