AA check

[youthies]

My steady progression down in limits.
Villain here is 71/17/1.7 over 50 hands. Do his stats make the river a call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($0.70)
Button ($13.70)
SB ($15.80)
Hero ($14.75)
UTG ($12.25)
MP ($6.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.75</font>, MP calls $0.65, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls $0.65.

Flop: ($2.45) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.9</font>, MP folds, SB calls $1.90.

Turn: ($6.25) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.75</font>, SB calls $4.75.

River: ($15.75) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $8.4 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $7.35 (All-In).

Final Pot: $31.50

[L8Bloomer]

Unfortunately, no. This is the kind of hand someone who plays 71% of the hands dies for to put all in. straight draw, flush draw, trips all possibilities here. Fold and use that money for a different hand. He obviously has something to check/call twice, then go all in first on the river.

[evazan]

I agree. This is a very easy fold. Just about every possible draw hit and there is a strong possibility he plays a 4 like this. He doesn't play a lower pocket like this. The only thing you beat is a bluff which is very very unlikely in this situation.

[holdme]

what, you're gonna fold the river now?
you don't think an overpair is in his range?

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
what, you're gonna fold the river now?
you don't think an overpair is in his range?

[/ QUOTE ]I think it is for sure but the PFR numbers indicate he would be 3-betting them. Certainly the premium hands. This is either a midpair or Aces got cracked, most likely the latter.

[evazan]

Villain has a pfr of 17 so I would find it very strange if he isn't raising TT+ pf here. This just leaves 88 and 99 in his range of over pairs which are the only hands we may beat. For villain to take this line with an over pair is strange. I would expect him to check/call 88 and 99 in this spot and think he would have bet/raised earlier in the hand.

[holdme]

so you know his pf 3 bet range from those stats?

[evazan]

[ QUOTE ]
so you know his pf 3 bet range from those stats?

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain acted before hero. It has nothing to do with his pf 3 bet range. With a 17 pfr I doubt he is just completing TT+.

[holdme]

lol oh
lemme look again

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has a pfr of 17 so I would find it very strange if he isn't raising TT+ pf here. This just leaves 88 and 99 in his range of over pairs which are the only hands we may beat. For villain to take this line with an over pair is strange. I would expect him to check/call 88 and 99 in this spot and think he would have bet/raised earlier in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Many villains with these stats raises the middle parts of their range 22-66 Q-high, K-high etc and don´t raise with with their good hands. The stats do tell us he has absolutely no idea what he is doing, but he likes to to put in bets, calls and raises in random doses with complete gabage. If we are not good here 20% of the time I´d be somewhat surprised.

[evazan]

We are getting great odds but I still think we are almost never ahead here. I just don't see villains with stats like these taking lines like this with anything we beat. The only Hands I think he has that we may be ahead of are very poorly played KK or QQ.

[Gustav]

Just because villain has a 17 pfr doesn't necessarily mean he is raising the top 17% of his hands. Lots of villains will happily raise 46s UTG, but will limp/call QQ on every street.

The only thing this villains stats are telling us for certain is that he is an idiot.

[Emperor Norton]

Isn't the postflop aggression factor the more important stat here? 1.7 makes him a fairly passive villain, which makes dramatic river bluffs/moronic pushes with 99/88 substantially less likely. Hero is getting 3:1 on a call, but I really doubt he's ahead 25% of the time.

[bluffbetter]

This is an easy call. LOOK AT THOSE STATS 71!!!!!!!!!
Villain is a huge fish and you are ahead wayyyy more than 25% of the time here.