50NL Coldcall/3 bet AK

[sharpie]

Open raiser is 29/16. Passive postflop and overvalues top pair. Have like 13 hands on the reraiser and all I know is he's tight so far.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($50)
MP ($54)
CO ($54.95)
Hero ($83.35)
SB ($158.80)
BB ($39.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $2, SB calls $1.75, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $6.5</font>, MP calls $4.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>...

[homeslice]

Why didn't you reraise the MP initially?

[sharpie]

I didn't want him folding dominated hands, he overvalues top pair and might go broke if we hit.

[derek luv]

I'm fine with calling in position there with AK. I would not have reraised the first reraiser but just called because I think at best you're 50-50 against the BB and maybe you have the initial raiser dominated.

[sharpie]

Let's say the worst case scenario assuming noone was sandbagging a big hand, I get heads up with BB and we collect the dead money. Is this worth it?

Does BB ever fold a pocket pair?

[mrw8419]

I hate the reraise to 30 just shove when it gets back to you. Also if you MP sucks that bad put in a small 3 bet to isolate him.

[Nick C]

Hmm. It's a gutsy play, but it's nice if it works.

My guess is that BB has a range of like AA-JJ and AK, and it's going to be AA or KK a lot, despite the fact that you hold one of each of those cards. A lot of people raise light in micro No Limit, but 3-bets generally are a big hand, and I'm thinking that's probably more true when it's a 3-bet from the blinds in a multiway pot like this one.

I do think you'll fold everyone out sometimes, but you're investing $23.50 in the hopes of taking down $17 (actually, you're investing more like $33.15, really, because BB will most likely either fold or shove), and I think you're in trouble versus BB's range if he plays.

One thing I don't really know is whether the LRR aspect of your play will make people more or less scared. I haven't been seeing the play much.

[sharpie]

Villain said he folded QQ. The way he was talking I believe him. I'm guessing this was an unlikely event, but it does add some value to the play if people can fold a hand like this. What are you calling with in BB's spot when I do this? (he just sat down and probaby knew nothing about me, if he has a HUD he'd know I'm probably tight).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($50)
MP ($54)
CO ($54.95)
Hero ($83.35)
SB ($158.80)
BB ($39.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $2, SB calls $1.75, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $6.5</font>, MP calls $4.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, SB folds, BB folds, MP calls $23.50.

Flop: ($68.50) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $24</font>, MP calls $24 (All-In).

Turn: ($116.50) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($116.50) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $116.50

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP has Th 9h (three of a kind, tens).
Hero has Ac Kh (one pair, tens).
Outcome: MP wins $116.50. </font>

[vanoff]

It's sooooted! How can you fold /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Well played disregarding the result. Definitely +EV.

[hoyasaxa]

At this level I just dont like four betting AK like that. People just wont make that QQ fold enough, youre going to get moved in on a lot by pocket pairs and your variance will be huge. Not counting the times people have KK/AA.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
At this level I just dont like four betting AK like that. People just wont make that QQ fold enough, youre going to get moved in on a lot by pocket pairs and your variance will be huge. Not counting the times people have KK/AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the times when people have T9s? At these levels you get called too often, but many of those calls will be by BADLY dominated hands. AQ/KQ/AJ/KJs/ATs all look like hands worth risking it all on to some of these people, and against them your AK completely CRUSHES.

You're not three-betting big with AK because you have folding equity -- you're three-betting big with AK because you DON'T. All-in preflop with AK is almost never a mistake. Now, betting to LESS than all-in can be a mistake if you can be pushed off the hand on a later street; if you can't get yourself pot-committed preflop, you might as well smooth-call instead. If you can get it all-in before the flop, it's +EV against your typical opponents.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
You're not three-betting big with AK because you have folding equity -- you're three-betting big with AK because you DON'T.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, Pokey, I think we really are looking for some folding equity in this hand, because BB's range most likely has us beat.

I realize we could still be in decent shape in terms of equity with our AK if BB only has QQ or worse, but BB is most likely very strong here, and AA/KK/AK make up a good chunk of his range.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

The thing is, Pokey, I think we really are looking for some folding equity in this hand, because BB's range most likely has us beat.

I realize we could still be in decent shape in terms of equity with our AK if BB only has QQ or worse, but BB is most likely very strong here, and AA/KK/AK make up a good chunk of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are shockingly few ranges against which AK is a dog, and we've got an overlay from the pot. There is already $17 in the pot before we act; if we push and getting called only by MP this will get us $62.50-to-$52, or 1.2-to-1 odds (we only have to win 45% of the time to be EV-neutral). If we push and only BB calls, then we're getting $48.15-to-$37.65, or 1.3-to-1 odds (we only have to win 44% of the time to be EV-neutral). What ranges are these?

Well, AKo is a 45/55 dog against a range of "QQ+, AK, AQs, KQs." If you eliminate QQ from the set, AKo's winrate RISES. Against "KK+, AQ, AK" AKo is a FAVORITE. Throw in some added value from folding equity for a few bad folds from hands that have us beaten like 99, TT, JJ, and QQ, and this turns into a very safely +EV push. Even if they both call with ranges of "KK+, AQ, AK" we have a slightly +EV push here with 33.6% pot equity.

AKo is a real powerhouse -- play it like one, especially at these levels.

[sightless]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The thing is, Pokey, I think we really are looking for some folding equity in this hand, because BB's range most likely has us beat.

I realize we could still be in decent shape in terms of equity with our AK if BB only has QQ or worse, but BB is most likely very strong here, and AA/KK/AK make up a good chunk of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are shockingly few ranges against which AK is a dog, and we've got an overlay from the pot. There is already $17 in the pot before we act; if we push and getting called only by MP this will get us $62.50-to-$52, or 1.2-to-1 odds (we only have to win 45% of the time to be EV-neutral). If we push and only BB calls, then we're getting $48.15-to-$37.65, or 1.3-to-1 odds (we only have to win 44% of the time to be EV-neutral). What ranges are these?

Well, AKo is a 45/55 dog against a range of "QQ+, AK, AQs, KQs." If you eliminate QQ from the set, AKo's winrate RISES. Against "KK+, AQ, AK" AKo is a FAVORITE. Throw in some added value from folding equity for a few bad folds from hands that have us beaten like 99, TT, JJ, and QQ, and this turns into a very safely +EV push. Even if they both call with ranges of "KK+, AQ, AK" we have a slightly +EV push here with 33.6% pot equity.

AKo is a real powerhouse -- play it like one, especially at these levels.

[/ QUOTE ]
thank you for the informative post

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, AKo is a 45/55 dog against a range of "QQ+, AK, AQs, KQs." If you eliminate QQ from the set, AKo's winrate RISES. Against "KK+, AQ, AK" AKo is a FAVORITE.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we disagree (at least a little) on what BB's range is. Like I said earlier in the thread, I think it's something like AA-JJ, AK, with AA and KK weighted more heavily than their 3 combos each would give us with equal weighting.

Anyway, though, what I just quoted from you is a little confusing. AK may fare slightly better versus KK+/AK/AQs/KQs than it does against QQ+/AK/AQs/KQs, but this isn't shocking, since AK is only a slight dog to QQ in the first place, and the overall figure you gave was 45/55 for the range.

Also, the KK+/AK/AQ range you gave isn't very realistic. Very few BBs are going to 3-bet AQo but not QQ in this spot. In fact, not many BBs are going to 3-bet AQo, period. And I think this is true for KQs (in the earlier range) as well. Meanwhile, AQs will often just call, and sometimes that's what BB will do with AK too. (Granted, BB may open up his usual 3-betting range, despite all the calls, if he thinks the initial raiser tends to raise light, but BB hasn't been at the table long.)

I don't actually have a strong opinion either way about Sharpie's play, though. I mean, like Sharpie, I believe the BB when he says he folded QQ. So Sharpie's results were obviously very good (well, except for the part where he goes on to lose to the T9s he was about a 9:5 favorite against).

[tiger_hall]

Disgusting how MP can call with that...
I would be folding after MP calls BB reraise... AA and KK could be possible hands in this situation and your looking to hit 6 outs on the flop otherwise you are folding/losing.. in the long run you are going to lose a lot of money by doing this... IMO

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
At this level I just dont like four betting AK like that. People just wont make that QQ fold enough, youre going to get moved in on a lot by pocket pairs and your variance will be huge. Not counting the times people have KK/AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Variance is not an excuse not to make a play.

[Peter Harris]

nh sharpie and astute CC in the first place. stay away from my games.