NL25 SB v BB Not sure about this tight looking fold. [Archive]

View Full Version : NL25 SB v BB Not sure about this tight looking fold.

bluffbetter

06-09-2007, 08:19 AM

Villain is 21.4/14.4/14 over 97 hands, but when this hand happened I'm pretty sure his aggression was 0 after about 60 hands.

the set of blinds before last he reraised me 4.25/1/0.25 in BB when I had KT. He made no other raises in the blinds before this although alot of the time there was one loose limper. After a 5BB raise in MP he did appear to bluff the flop when he raised 3 over a 0.25 minbet v AXX then folded to 13 (player was all-in) although I guess it could have been AJ and he figured he was behind.

With his tight stats at the time and 0 aggression, this looks very much like AK/Q or 33 and I think I made a good fold, but then again there's only one ace left in the pack and it is blind vs blind. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($41.05)
BB ($29.60)
UTG ($32)
MP ($25.05)
CO ($25.35)
Button ($25.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
4 folds, Hero raises to $1, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BB raises to $3, Hero calls $2.

Turn: ($8) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $7.25, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $15.25

boycalledroy

06-09-2007, 08:23 AM

Unfathomable - You flopped trips which means his chances of holding an ace are greatly reduced. The only hand I am really scared of here is 33.

I think AK/AQ/AJ are all hands he would raise with preflop. This is a poor fold imo. There is no real hand I could put him on, but you are ahead of the ones I can discount.

bluffbetter

06-09-2007, 08:30 AM

But after 60 hands of no aggression and being quite tight preflop, why would he bet like this vs a raiser who may well have an ace? It looks to me like he knows I probably have an ace but he has a better one and wants my stack.

bluffbetter

06-09-2007, 02:40 PM

Anyone else have an opinion on this?

samwallistea

06-09-2007, 03:18 PM

One interpretation is that he could be trying to represent an ace thinking you don't have one.It's easy to see how a player would look at the board and think that anyone with an ace would just slowplay, a lot of players think like that. He could interpret your 1/2 size pot bet on flop as just a cbet with a missed hand, and he decides to raise to "put you to the test".

On the turn after you check he may feel confident he is ahead so thats why he would make a PSB. My advice would have been to of made a small bet on the turn, say $4, if he were reraise that then maybe think of folding.

Vyse

06-09-2007, 03:39 PM

This is a great example of people relying WAAAAAY too much on stats. Wtf? This is the worst fold I've ever seen.

TIGERsrm

06-09-2007, 05:33 PM

This is terrible. First of all 60 hands is nothing when it comes to the AF stat, you need a much bigger sample size to get anything from that stat.
Im raising this turn, you are well ahead of his range.
Can't believe you gave him the pot, you sure you didn't misclick??

bluffbetter

06-09-2007, 06:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a great example of people relying WAAAAAY too much on stats. Wtf? This is the worst fold I've ever seen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks very much. Ok, so if there was just one ace on the board and it was SB v BB and he raised flop and then bet big on the turn, that time with AT it would be a clear fold, right? Unless villain had shown aggression in the blinds previously.

Vyse

06-09-2007, 06:17 PM

Even then it wouldn't be a CLEAR fold with just one ace.

amputeesmile

06-09-2007, 06:34 PM

I think there's value in a raise here, your line so far doesn't look much like an ace with the 1/2 pot c-bet. Also when you consider the pot is a SB/BB confrontation, most of the hands would have re-popped you preflop, regardless of his stats (small sample size). If he has AJ or 33, so be it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

bluffbetter

06-10-2007, 07:24 AM

WOOHOOOOOO!!!!!!! I am no longer a nit. Yessssssss!!!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($25.15)
Button ($32.80)
SB ($34.60)
BB ($21.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.10) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, BB calls $1.75.

Turn: ($5.60) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.75, BB calls $2.75.

River: ($11.10) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.75, BB raises to $16.15, Hero calls $12.40.

Final Pot: $43.40

Results in white below: 
BB has Kh Jc (high card, king).
Hero has Kc Ks (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins $43.40.