25NL: I have NFD, am I spewing?

[homeslice]

I've played about 100 hands w/ this villian. Villian is a solid player, but I know he's capable of 3 betting light. Is my flop push, spewing?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($25)
SB ($28.25)
BB ($74.55)
UTG ($68.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $3</font>, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($6.10) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $22</font>

[Vyse]

Yes.

[Lego05]

Yep.

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

If by "yes" you mean "no" then you're absolutely right.

I don't know how lightly BB 3-bets, so let's assume that he doesn't. Instead, let's give him a very reasonable range of {TT+,AK}

If villain calls the flop with all of his pairs, hero has roughly 45% equity on this flop.

Board: 4c 7c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.314% 44.86% 00.45% 11991 121.50 { Ac9c }
Hand 1: 54.686% 54.23% 00.45% 14496 121.50 { TT+ }


I'm not going to type out the math, but the gist is that due to the amount already in the pot, hero can actually expect to make $0.70 on average when called.

But wait! There's more. We can also expect that villain will generally fold AK to this aggression. When he does that, hero picks up a pot of $10 unopposed. Sweet!

The shove only becomes more profitable as we add hands to villain's range. If villain c-bets here with AQ, that's another instance where we can generally expect to pick up $10 unopposed.

In short, nh.

[homeslice]

Emperor, thanx for going through that...

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

If by "yes" you mean "no" then you're absolutely right.

I don't know how lightly BB 3-bets, so let's assume that he doesn't. Instead, let's give him a very reasonable range of {TT+,AK}

If villain calls the flop with all of his pairs, hero has roughly 45% equity on this flop.

Board: 4c 7c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.314% 44.86% 00.45% 11991 121.50 { Ac9c }
Hand 1: 54.686% 54.23% 00.45% 14496 121.50 { TT+ }


I'm not going to type out the math, but the gist is that due to the amount already in the pot, hero can actually expect to make $0.70 on average when called.

But wait! There's more. We can also expect that villain will generally fold AK to this aggression. When he does that, hero picks up a pot of $10 unopposed. Sweet!

The shove only becomes more profitable as we add hands to villain's range. If villain c-bets here with AQ, that's another instance where we can generally expect to pick up $10 unopposed.

In short, nh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if villian is a good TAG here I wouldn't think he's calling with all of his pairs. However, yea I shouldn't have answered so fast. The extra A outs would make a big difference. Also like to point out that if he is 3 betting light he could have a set here some of the time.

[CheddaBones]

i agree w/emperor, but lets be honest... this is 25NL. you have absolutely NO fold equity against someone w/any overpair.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
i agree w/emperor, but lets be honest... this is 25NL. you have absolutely NO fold equity against someone w/any overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do against good opponents at 50NL...I'd be surprised if there weren't any at 25 NL that you had some against.

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]

Well if villian is a good TAG here I wouldn't think he's calling with all of his pairs. However, yea I shouldn't have answered so fast. The extra A outs would make a big difference. Also like to point out that if he is 3 betting light he could have a set here some of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if villain calls only with sets and QQ+, we still have about 38% equity on the flop. This is more than compensated for by the fact that a villain who 3-bets 44 is also probably 3-betting AJ/KQ/etc, which is basically free money when they c-bet.

[CheddaBones]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i agree w/emperor, but lets be honest... this is 25NL. you have absolutely NO fold equity against someone w/any overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do against good opponents at 50NL...I'd be surprised if there weren't any at 25 NL that you had some against.

[/ QUOTE ]

good opponents don't stay at 25/50nl for too long. maybe you run into someone working their way through, but imo i think it is dangerous to assume ppl will fold overpairs in situations such as this one.

[matrix]

OP nh.

also I rate myself as a "good opponent" at 50NL (compared to most of the 50NL players that is)

and I don't recall folding many overpairs.

You can't force opponents into folding Overpairs on the flop in 25/50NL against any but the nittiest W/T players around, so quit trying.

We can fold AQ+ like this (which pads the winrate nicely) and are at worst a 2:1 dog when called, overall +EV.

[Bantam222]

you shouldn't be focusing on "is it +ev to call this?" you should be asking "is it better to push here or call?"

[Vyse]

Why is it better to push?

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is it better to push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushing is unexploitable.

[Pancho]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain calls the flop with all of his pairs, hero has roughly 45% equity on this flop.

Board: 4c 7c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.314% 44.86% 00.45% 11991 121.50 { Ac9c }
Hand 1: 54.686% 54.23% 00.45% 14496 121.50 { TT+ }


I'm not going to type out the math, but the gist is that due to the amount already in the pot, hero can actually expect to make $0.70 on average when called.



[/ QUOTE ]

question: he is putting 22 to win 10 so it's a bit worse than 1:0.5 which needs +66% equity to be +EV if i'm not mistaken.

pls could you tell me why it nets .70 in your opinion with only 45%equity(it didn'T seem as if you already had the folding equity in that calc)

thx

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
you shouldn't be focusing on "is it +ev to call this?" you should be asking "is it better to push here or call?"

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true (I think you meant to ask "is it +ev to push this?" at first, but what you wrote is true anyway). And this is the reason that a flop call is a legitimate option. I agree that a push is +EV, but it is still possible that a call is even more +EV. (I worked for quite a while on the math, but the math behind even the simplified scenario I was working on was very complicated and included a lot of assumptions. I scrapped my work, which ultimately seemed too speculative and estimate-heavy to be reliable, but before I did that, calling was working out to be a little better than pushing based on the assumptions I was using. However, those assumptions did kind of favor a call to begin with, I'll admit, which is why I scrapped my work. But, if somehow we could assume just, say, an AA-77, AK range for Villain and could also assume he would bet just 2/3 of the pot again on a blank turn, while also betting 2/3 pot with his PPs on a club turn or ace turn, and while sometimes checking UI AK on a turn blank and allowing us to steal with a turn semi-bluff, then the case to be made for a flop call is a strong one. In fact, under those circumstances, I believe just calling the flop would be about $2-3 better than pushing, on average.

Edit: However, given that this Villain is capable of 3-betting light preflop, I suspect that in this hand a push is probably at least as good as a call. We don't have very much folding equity versus an AA-77, AK range (with that range, Villain will have an overpair or better 39 out of 51 times), but our folding equity improves as we start adding in hands like AQ and AJ, and, meanwhile, we don't really mind winning immediately versus, say, KQ.