Fear the unraised pot: SB hits top two ultradeep

[Pokey]

<font color="blue">Long time no see, folks.

In my attempt to ease m'self back into poker I've been playing quite a bit of the $0.15/$0.30 deep-stacked 6-max poker at Full Tilt. For those of you who are unfamiliar with it, the maximum buyin is 200xBB, rather than the standard 100xBB. It gives you more room to wiggle, and more postflop options. It also rapidly builds your postflop skills. Finally, because you're so deep your preflop hands aren't quite as important as your postflop play, so you get to play more hands profitably. It can be quite fun, though it is also quite challenging.

This hand came up this morning, and I thought it was quite interesting. I'd be curious to hear people's thoughts about it.

I've seen about 60 hands with both of these players, and my reads are as follows:

BB is playing a 27/15/7.5 game, moderately tight and extremely aggressive. He's played a few bluffs (quite well, actually) and he's also managed to get paid off with his monsters. He's a good player.

Button is playing a 24/10/12 game with over-the-top postflop aggro but not much skill. I'm not impressed.

I've been playing a 31/19/1.5 game with a ridiculously-loose 58% completion rate from the SB. (Hey, if they'll let me in for 0.25% of my stack, I'm wanting to see a flop, baby.) I haven't gotten too far out of line yet, but I do stab at the pot at times, though I typically give up after that.</font>

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

<font color="black">Pokey (SB): $60.45</font>
BB: $115.05
UTG: $23.85
MP: $13.50
CO: $50.00
BTN: $23.30

CO posts $0.30
<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Pokey is dealt 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, CO checks, BTN calls $0.30, Pokey calls $0.15, BB checks

<font color="blue">For the price of 0.5 BBs, playing for a miracle flop is profitable when you're this deep.</font>

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($1.20) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 Players)

<font color="red">Pokey bets $0.70</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $3.30</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $9.00</font>, <font color="red">Pokey raises to $23.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $114.75</font>, BTN calls all-in for $14.00, Pokey scratches his head.

<font color="blue">Well, top two seemed like a great time to make some magic. BB's raise didn't scare me much, though Button's three-bet was a bit worrisome. I four-bet enough to put button all-in, expecting BB would fold and I would have a heads-up shot at a very nice pot. BB surprised me with a five-bet all-in. Button's call seemed reluctant but basically a given; however, I'm faced with calling an extra $37.15, here.

What's my best play, and why? Note that the pot is offering me just shy of 3-to-1 odds, and the pot was unraised preflop.

Fun, fun!</font>

[EMc]

When I saw this post wasnt a bimp I heard:

Hallelujah, Hallelujah!

Id like to think BB is raising 22, 33 and JJ here PF, and I think given the price you are getting you are going to be +EV here

[Antinome]

I can't put anyone on a hand that makes sense.

22 in the BB, KJo on the button? J2,23s? J2,45? KK,J2?

Seems like we beat enough. I expect to see 22 in the BB 25% of the time, J2 30%, 33 5%, a semibluff with A2,45s 30%, 1 pair or junk 10%. Button I feel we're ahead of.

Neutral EV Curiosity Call.

[sputum]

I can't fold, sorry. I know I'm beat a lot here and I know I'll get to see the hands anyway /images/graemlins/blush.gif Maybe I see junk here more often? And we murder J2 and 32. And BB didn't raise pre (obv only an indicator) and I've got top two. So I call.

[Vyse]

I feel quite bad about felting top and bottom pair in an UNRAISED pot with two other players. I would've just called the BTN raise and folded to BB's re-raise.

[jessyj07]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel quite bad about felting top and bottom pair

[/ QUOTE ]it's top 2. I don't think I'd call here though. The fact that he has already doubled up his original $60 buyin makes me feel like he knows how to play and that he isn't just giving away money with 23 or J2.

[Vyse]

Yeah, my bad, top 2. I don't think villain is going to be felting a worse 2pair very often though, and NEVER a TP type of hand.

[RollTide77]

Looks like trips to me. My guess is the BTN limped in 22/33 behind. But who am I?

[Chomp]

Wow Pokey, great to have you around again.

Started 2 replies about the hand, but I keep changing my mind. The action is odd.

Wouldn't BB raise preflop with AJ? And probably 22? And would he commit this much with KJ/QJ/TJ, especially after you've shown so much strength?

Odd. I somehow don't think this "good player" is doing this with TPGK. Besides, I think Btn has one of the other J's, so that makes J for BB less likely.

I wonder if he has a bizarre J2 and you have him by a whisker? In fact, I wonder if all the J's and maybe all the 2's or 3's are out there? Kinda feels that way.

Anyway, my guess in order of likely hands is 22...J2...33...TPGK.

I think you called and I hope your re-draw came in!

[kazana]

I'd also expect a solid villain to raise preflop with any pocket pair.

But I don't think I've got the balls to wager the rest of that 200BB stack on that assumption.

Hero's last raise is a display of pure strength. BB seems completely unphased by that even though, if he's fairly solid he shouldn't expect anything less than two pair.

This makes me believe that we're more likely beaten than not. And if he's pulled a move, kudos for having the balls to do that so deep.

[thac]

I realize you're deep and everything but J3s? C'mon just dump it preflop.

As played, villain can have 32s here, 22, 33, not really JJ.. 22/33 are kind of a stretch.. I definitely don't 4-bet though.. coldcalling the 3-bet, while shady-looking seems to be best here.. you can entice the BB in (who can definitely have J2 or 32), and you can also give BTN some rope to make a dumb play with AJ/KJ.

But like I said in the beginning, dump it preflop. You hit top two and you are confused about whether or not to get it in. It's just not a good hand and it's only gonna get you in trouble.

[Gigglegirl]

I think BB is squeezing here.
He sees your 4 bet trying to get HU with button and determines that you want him out. If you want him out, he considers he has FE (which he does) if he shoves.
I'll say button has top pair type hand and BB has a wide range, (draw)/(pair + overcard)/(lower 2 pair) type hand.
I call and hope that the real danger hand (22), if its out there, is held by button so we can win the sidepot. But I think either of these players would raise any PP preflop so I'm pretty confident.
Or maybe I'm waaaaaaaaaaay off:)

Vnh BTW.

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
I think BB is squeezing here.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was one of my first thoughts too - but look at the size of Pokey's bet...I don't think there's any way villain can think he is getting an easy fold after that big a bet.

[Gigglegirl]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think BB is squeezing here.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was one of my first thoughts too - but look at the size of Pokey's bet...I don't think there's any way villain can think he is getting an easy fold after that big a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, fair point. And it can't be air as he has to have a good enough hand to beat button (or at least be priced in to beat him) as BTN is pot committed and certainly has something. So the weak draw possibility I mentioned is a non starter. But I'm convinced we're being squeezed.

So what beats us???!! Only the 3 sets.
Ok, surely we can completely(?) eliminate JJ.
It would surely have raised preflop and wouldn't be pushing people out on such a dry board on the flop even if it didn't.
22 and 33 are much more likely. 33 is less likely as we have one 3 so 22 is the real danger. I think it would have raised pf but maybe not. And again, do you want to push people out on such a dry flop?
For the odds we're getting, I think there are enough 2 pair combos to make up for the 4(?) set combos that crush us.

Ok, BB has EXACTLY 23, feels he's in front but doesn't want to play 3 handed with his very vunerable bottom 2 pair.
BTN has EXACTLY JQo.
Or maybe we 3-way chop.........or maybe they both have sets.....or maybe.......ummm....did I mention, vnh?
I still call. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[ama0330]

Hero is behind, based solely on the flop texture. I fold this.

[Emperor Norton]

Board: Js 3h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.102% 07.39% 24.72% 585 1957.50 { Jd3d }
Hand 1: 67.898% 43.18% 24.72% 3420 1957.50 { 33-22, J3s, J3o }

I don't know, I think we're priced in here, even assuming this worst-case scenario. Pretty close, though.

[Archon_Wing]

I also think they really also have no idea about we have as well.

[Worm75]

Pretty dry flop that we are facing here, and with Pokey's read that BB is a solid player he has to give credence to a 4-bet on the flop. If the guy is pretty solid, he has to know that a 1 pair hand is no good here, so shoving is pretty bad. I think we can eliminate JJ from the range, not a hand that BB/Button will want to limp. 22/33 seem like the fairly obvious choices here, although j2/j3 are possibilities.

But with the way that action is on the flop, somebody has a set here like 85% of the time. 100BB's money is going in, because we are getting ridiculous odds. At 200BB's though, I don't see thinking villains showing up with worse hands often enough to make this break-even, let alone +ev.

The only other way that I see this, is if villain has a pretty decent read on Pokey's play, and has seen him iso-raise and the 4-bet is based upon that. I lean pretty heavily to fold here though

[Vyse]

Yeah, dude's range is like 95% sets.

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Js 3h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.102% 07.39% 24.72% 585 1957.50 { Jd3d }
Hand 1: 67.898% 43.18% 24.72% 3420 1957.50 { 33-22, J3s, J3o }

I don't know, I think we're priced in here, even assuming this worst-case scenario. Pretty close, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should note that this simulation is really no good, in that button usually has two pair outs of his own. Assuming button has TPGK or a donkishly played overpair, we have a little less than 25% equity, which is less than we need, but surprisingly close given that we're assuming that BB is always at least tied with us.

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, dude's range is like 95% sets.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not right. There's one combo of 33 left in the deck and three combos of 22, making for four total set combinations. Assuming BB has something like KJ (although I kinda think this is a donkey's way of "getting tricky" with an overpair) there are two combos left of J3 and three of J2. Discounting J2 entirely, this is still not a "zomg so obvious he always has a set" situation.

[Vyse]

You're assuming that he would ever play J2 like this, or maybe even J3.

[Emperor Norton]

Maybe he doesn't play J2 like this, but why wouldn't an aggressive player go to town with top two? Of course he would. It's not as though his hand is so secure that he can just wait for a card to come off before jamming the pot. And villain has substantially less information than we do when he shoves. Even if he gives hero credit for a real hand, he can't rule out J2/32.

[Vyse]

Because more value can be extracted by not shoving 200 BB on the flop. Opp puts you on a bigger range, talks himself into calling...

[Gigglegirl]

And can anyone give a plausible explanation why a good player, closing the pf action, would not raise any PP?
Surely playing ultra deep we want a raised pot here or we risk not getting paid when/if we hit?

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]
Because more value can be extracted by not shoving 200 BB on the flop. Opp puts you on a bigger range, talks himself into calling...

[/ QUOTE ]

So why would he shove with sets instead of top two? The same argument applies.

[Vyse]

Because you're not going to get your low set very often and likely going to get 1-2 callers OOP so it's basically hit set or fold.

[Worm75]

[ QUOTE ]
And can anyone give a plausible explanation why a good player, closing the pf action, would not raise any PP?
Surely playing ultra deep we want a raised pot here or we risk not getting paid when/if we hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good thought, brings up the question if villain understands how to play in a deep-stack situation, and the way that single pair hand values go down.

[Worm75]

[ QUOTE ]
Because you're not going to get your low set very often and likely going to get 1-2 callers OOP so it's basically hit set or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unraised pot, with BB and Button as the only 2 callers. If I am in the BB I am raising a PP like 100% of the time to try and steal the button here and play with position. And you can win plenty of pots without hitting sets here if you can get position and heads up.

[Vyse]

You were asking the logic. That's the logic. Debating whether it's correct or not is an entirely different animal.

[kaz2107]

BBs range is way to wide for me to dump this. this is a low limit and people can do dumb things at times. there r a tons of hands he could have here.

1. any 2 pair combo
2. any set (only one combo of JJ and 33 remaining so a set is pretty unlikely)
3. could b just over playing tp like AJ or KJ
4. could b over playin 45 for an oesd with a back door flush draw
5. coulda been gettin tricky with a big pp and now over playing it (not that unlikely even tho it is terrible)
6. small cahnce that he just has some random hand too (who knows this is a low limit)


given this and wut how much is already in tha pot i am turbo calling. i dont think it is all that close unless we have a good read that this guy is good and has an idea of wut tha hell he is doin. no way im foldin top two here. NO WAY

[Vyse]

When you actually analyze every group of hands he could have, his range is not wide at all.

[Bonesy]

I put villain on JJ,22,33,J3,J2 or 23 and a very small percentage of other stuff. I think a good player knows very well you have a good hand here. JJ is unlikely and I believe he would probably play the rest of the hands the same way. It honestly feels like 22 or 33, but given my range there are more combos of hands you beat. After typing this out though, I'm going to back track and say fold simply because of your read on him. He is a good solid player who has been getting paid off with his monsters. He must know you have a good hand here.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
I realize you're deep and everything but J3s? C'mon just dump it preflop.

As played, villain can have 32s here, 22, 33, not really JJ.. 22/33 are kind of a stretch.. I definitely don't 4-bet though.. coldcalling the 3-bet, while shady-looking seems to be best here.. you can entice the BB in (who can definitely have J2 or 32), and you can also give BTN some rope to make a dumb play with AJ/KJ.

But like I said in the beginning, dump it preflop. You hit top two and you are confused about whether or not to get it in. It's just not a good hand and it's only gonna get you in trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plz someone comment

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I realize you're deep and everything but J3s? C'mon just dump it preflop.

As played, villain can have 32s here, 22, 33, not really JJ.. 22/33 are kind of a stretch.. I definitely don't 4-bet though.. coldcalling the 3-bet, while shady-looking seems to be best here.. you can entice the BB in (who can definitely have J2 or 32), and you can also give BTN some rope to make a dumb play with AJ/KJ.

But like I said in the beginning, dump it preflop. You hit top two and you are confused about whether or not to get it in. It's just not a good hand and it's only gonna get you in trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plz someone comment

[/ QUOTE ]blah!!! preflop is prefrence. u kno that. we r deep. if we were in position id say insta call but oop i think it is a wut ever u r feeling like doin. i could care less either way assuming u r good post flop. (obv if u suck at post flop play oop then dont [censored] with this at all and keep it simple)

[gedanken]

[ QUOTE ]
I realize you're deep and everything, but J3s? C'mon just dump it preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

my thoughts exactly, but A) it seems obvious, no need to repeat B) it's pokey, who am I to question C) I think he secretly likes being OOP with an awkward hand. builds postflop skills.

As played, (yeah, as Pokey chose to play, can I say that?) this seems like a call, not many hands beat us and low stakes players are wacky, even the decent ones. I'm putting AA-KK in BB's range.

I'm learning a lot from this forum, you guys think about opponent ranges WAY more than I can. I just scratch my head too much when I see what people were actually playing.

I'm dying to hear what these guys had.

edit: I follow the logic of .05 for an occasional miracle. top 2 doesn't quite qualify as a miracle to me.

[matrix]

snap call.

You made your bed - lie in it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

we absolutely can't fold J3 post flop when we flop the effective nuts with it, not being offered those odds, not when there's a good chance BB is bluffing - that looks like a "please go away now" raise rather than a value raise - and then we'd win a nice side pot even if the shortstacks got us beat.

Good to see you round these parts Pokey.

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I realize you're deep and everything but J3s? C'mon just dump it preflop.

As played, villain can have 32s here, 22, 33, not really JJ.. 22/33 are kind of a stretch.. I definitely don't 4-bet though.. coldcalling the 3-bet, while shady-looking seems to be best here.. you can entice the BB in (who can definitely have J2 or 32), and you can also give BTN some rope to make a dumb play with AJ/KJ.

But like I said in the beginning, dump it preflop. You hit top two and you are confused about whether or not to get it in. It's just not a good hand and it's only gonna get you in trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plz someone comment

[/ QUOTE ]

I pretty much agree with this.

[ama0330]

Willing to bet $10 that hero was behind (if he called)

[sputum]

[ QUOTE ]
Willing to bet $10 that hero was behind (if he called)

[/ QUOTE ]
Will you lay me what the pot was laying him?

[boycalledroy]

In an unraised pot at the same statistics as the BB I play all pp's the same way. Preflop passive. Nothing sucks like the pfr/fold routine with OOP scumbagness.

The only problem is on a flop like this with AA/KK/QQ you have the J as your "exit" card. So he could see a raise as being any top-pair Jack hand. He is now trying to get paid off with an overpair. The only problem comes in if he has JJ. I really think he does not.

The BTN will have some straight draw. Possibly even just one ended!

I get it in and curse if he has hit his set. Nothing else to do, reload and make a note how he plays whatever hand he had.

[kolotoure]

I'm folding this because I can't think of a hand that beats us that plays like this but I can think of a few that beat us

[Let_it_rain]

[ QUOTE ]
snap call.

You made your bed - lie in it

[/ QUOTE ]

Word, it's go time. We have to play already put in 1/3 of our stack. More profitable to call than let it go.

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Willing to bet $10 that hero was behind (if he called)

[/ QUOTE ]
Will you lay me what the pot was laying him?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I'll go up to $25.

[Gigglegirl]

I would say that there is a pretty good chance of a chop here with BB though so people who are 'playing' this hand for money with each other might want to take that into account.
If you're betting that hero is behind, don't forget that you're paying out in the event of a chop.
A chop with BB is the one hand that completely makes sense to me. Every other holding has some 'but if BB has that, why would he......?' element to it.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, dude's range is like 95% sets.

[/ QUOTE ]The play makes it hard to pinpoint a specific hand. I'm not impressed with the argument that he shouldn't have a set because all PP's should raise PF...not from BB for all players (discount sets only slightly). OTOH, BB is IP on us and hero just raised enough to put BTN in so he's only worried about hero...flop is fairly dry and BB has to know he has some FE here so I discount sets a bit more because many villains will call here with a set.

If he's solid we need to discount 2-pair too but given hero's big bet if he is sitting there with 2-pair he knows its push or fold and I think a lot will push. He also is probably able to factor into the equation that hero didn't raise PF and therefore is less likely to have a PP.

I call this but its close.

[Supwithbates]

If BB is capable of making a move I see him shoving 45 here all day with the overlay pot is offering+probably fold equity

[Pokey]

Wow, this post has generated some fantastic discussion so far.

Regarding my calling with J3s preflop: I've always played extremely loose from the SB. It's part of my style. I've discussed this before, but the basic idea is that it buys me a loose image EXTREMELY cheaply. Some people see me in lots of pots, and they see me winning with total crap, and they don't realize that my starting hand strength is NOT that loose everywhere, so I get paid off better when I hit a monster from position. Alternatively, some people see me playing a tight-and-aggressive game from later positions, see me showing down monster after monster, and give me credit for power even when I just complete from the SB. It's an odd strategy, and it works well for me, but I don't recommend it as a sweeping generalization. Tight and aggressive is probably the best choice for people who aren't extremely confident in their postflop play. (NOTE: for those of you interested in improving, and willing to blow some BBs in the process, playing loose from the SB is a real boot camp approach to rapidly improving your postflop play....)

Regarding the postflop play: I think my first bet was automatic, and I think my four-bet was very defendable. There's no reason to slowplay top two when any card in the deck except a J or a 3 could potentially make your hand worse. When you've got a made hand that's vulnerable, fast is right. So I'm happy with both of those plays. As to overcalling BB's five-bet all-in, I think his range includes:

J3 (four combos)
J2 (six combos)
32 (six combos)
33 (one combo)
22 (three combos)

I can't see him going to town with AJ or less, and I think 54 is a real longshot considering that he's got to expect Button to come along for the ride. I'm even willing to discount the two-pair hands a bit -- say, 50% -- on the grounds that he might not play them that way. Even so, that leaves 6 combos I beat, 2 combos I tie, and 4 combos that beat me, all while the pot is laying me nearly 3-to-1 odds. Also note that when Button calls you've GOT to imagine he has SOMETHING. If he's got a set I'm drawing VERY thin (or dead) for the main pot, but I've got an even better chance at the side pot. If he's got something less, then the 3-to-1 odds apply.

Ultimately, the strength of my hand and the dryness of the board combined with the tasty pot odds to convince me to call this push. I will admit that I considered it a crying call at the time, but I felt that in the long run I win often enough to make it +EV. After all, I don't need to be ahead, here -- I just need to come out ahead at least 26% of the time or so.

[sputum]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Willing to bet $10 that hero was behind (if he called)

[/ QUOTE ]
Will you lay me what the pot was laying him?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I'll go up to $25.

[/ QUOTE ]
EDIT: I shouldn't really, because the call and this bet are not congruent but why not
I'll lay 10 to your 25 if you like (and respond in this thread before Pokey spills the beans /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

[Gigglegirl]

So Pokey, I'm obviously not results orientated but what was..........ummmmm..........the result?
And just out of interest, do you make a profit from the SB?

[ama0330]

Pokey,

[ QUOTE ]
I've always played extremely loose from the SB. It's part of my style. I've discussed this before, but the basic idea is that it buys me a loose image EXTREMELY cheaply. Some people see me in lots of pots, and they see me winning with total crap, and they don't realize that my starting hand strength is NOT that loose everywhere, so I get paid off better when I hit a monster from position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find this interesting. Do you find that you have to balance the benefits of this strategy (looser image etc) with the downside of being in a lot more multiway unraised pots out of position? Or do you simply play a "fit or fold" style postflop game, not even bothering with the marginal situations? I'd imagine playing so many pots at such a disadvantage must make it hard to turn a profit.

Also, many thanks for your advice on Vegas accommodation a while back. We stayed in the Rio, then the Luxor, and both were awesome. And I saw Cowboy Kenna James at the Rio - he's B list, but it'll do!

[Pokey]

Let me start out by saying that neither Vyse nor Sputum has any inside information about this hand from me, so the bet is fair. I won't reveal the results until Vyse either confirms or denies the bet in this thread -- hey, we're all degenerates here, so why not spice it up once in a while, eh? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Gigglegirl said:
[ QUOTE ]

And just out of interest, do you make a profit from the SB?


[/ QUOTE ]

A fair question, but the answer depends on what you mean by "make a profit." I just checked my stats, and over the last 7,791 times that I was in the small blind at tables with 2 to 6 players, I had a net loss of $701.05 after posting blinds totalling $4,188.72. That means that I won back over 83% of the money I posted in the small blind, despite having a VPIP of 46.7% and a PFR of only 11.6%.

This works out to a loss of -3 PTBB/100, whereas folding the SB every time would give you a loss of -25 PTBB/100. Personally, I'd consider that a "win," but your definition may vary.

Ama0330 said:
[ QUOTE ]

Do you find that you have to balance the benefits of this strategy (looser image etc) with the downside of being in a lot more multiway unraised pots out of position? Or do you simply play a "fit or fold" style postflop game, not even bothering with the marginal situations? I'd imagine playing so many pots at such a disadvantage must make it hard to turn a profit.


[/ QUOTE ]

Postflop I do not play fit-or-fold -- I have quite a bit of a stealing-the-orphans strategy. I bet at pots that I think I can steal, and I bet at pots that I hit. Remember: these SB hands are completions, not cold-calls (I folded 84.4% of my small blind hands to a steal), so nobody has indicated much strength in any of the hands, and being first on the flop gives me the right of first bluff. My Won $ When Saw Flop from the SB is 40.9%, so I'm still mixing it up and taking down pots -- this is not a straight fit-or-fold strategy by any stretch of the imagination. The key is in recognizing hands and situations where taking the pot with a bet is likely. Since my typical postflop bet is about 2/3rds to 3/4ths-pot, I can make many profitable postflop bets knowing that the board texture is unlikely to have connected solidly with an opponent.

Reads are also incredibly important, here. Against a tight opponent I'll be calling preflop and stealing many, many flops; against a loosey-goosey I'll be calling preflop and value-betting extremely lightly. Know thy enemy, right?

[jmgambler]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I realize you're deep and everything but J3s? C'mon just dump it preflop.

As played, villain can have 32s here, 22, 33, not really JJ.. 22/33 are kind of a stretch.. I definitely don't 4-bet though.. coldcalling the 3-bet, while shady-looking seems to be best here.. you can entice the BB in (who can definitely have J2 or 32), and you can also give BTN some rope to make a dumb play with AJ/KJ.

But like I said in the beginning, dump it preflop. You hit top two and you are confused about whether or not to get it in. It's just not a good hand and it's only gonna get you in trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plz someone comment

[/ QUOTE ]


Yes, this is a fold for me PF

[laeelin]

I want to know! :P

(bump)

[That Fish]

[ QUOTE ]

...I can't see him going to town with AJ or less, and I think 54 is a real longshot considering...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are BB with 54 sooted, OESD + backdoor FD = 9 outs.
Even if it's really only 8 outs on average that's still 31.5% equity with 3 guys in the pot. He'll fold you out enough to make that up I'd imagine..

BB is pushing a FD here and should be pushing 54 sooted here as well considering the outs are all clean.
I think 54s makes more sense than him limping a PP preflop here (along with the other hands mentioned in this thread).

[prodonkey]

I really think someone has 22 or 33 here. JJ seems very unlikely, I suppose bb could have J2/J3 or 23 also. Since button only has half a stack.. and bb range is pretty wide here, and you beat quite a few of his hands. I'm stacking off here. I still expect someone to show up with 22 here about 50% of the time though.

[Tickner]

guys the preflop call is super-standard here if you are a good post flop player.

Pokey this is an interesting hand. I'm not sure how the standard play is in this particular game. I would put him on a range of 23, 22, 33, J2, J3, and AJs and play accordingly. The AJs is put in there to make up for the times people misplay top pair (playing it like the nuts here) and other retarted crap he might be playing. Vs this range we have 65% equity and that makes it an auto-call.

Taking out the AJs, we still have 66% equity.

Furthermore, taking out the J3 hands that split the pot and the J2 combos that win us the pot, we are still over 60% equity due to all the 23 combos.

If we include only the suited 23 combos and take out the 23o combos, we have 30% equity, and its a marginally losing call - but his range cetainly isnt ONLY sets here.

I call and feel happy about it.

If you had a read that he is a solid winner and is raping the games I'd say he would have to have a set because thats all he is representing - but people suck at poker. (Actually if he was a solid winner at this game I cant see any hand he would do this with as I am sure a solid winner would raise PF - but sometimes people mix up thier play and so be it).

[Speedlimits]

easiest call ever?

[Vyse]

I'll confirm the bet. $10, giving you the 3-to-1 or whatever the odds were Pokey was getting. Paid through FT.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
easiest call ever?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm...sure didn't feel like it at the time. And seeing as how many people in this forum struggled with the hand, I'm not convinced that this was an easy decision. In the end, here's how the hand played out (you can thank Sputum and Vyse for the results):

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

<font color="black">Pokey (SB): $60.45</font>
BB: $115.05
UTG: $23.85
MP: $13.50
CO: $50.00
BTN: $23.30

CO posts $0.30
<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Pokey is dealt 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, CO checks, BTN calls $0.30, Pokey calls $0.15, BB checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($1.20) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 Players)
<font color="red">Pokey bets $0.70</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $3.30</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $9.00</font>, <font color="red">Pokey raises to $23.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $114.75</font>, BTN calls all-in for $14.00, Pokey calls all-in for $37.15
Uncalled bet of $54.60 returned to BB

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($144.50) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players - 3 All-In)

<font color="black">River:</font> ($144.50) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 Players - 3 All-In)

Pot Size: $144.50 ($3 Rake)

BTN had Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (two pair, Jacks and Threes) and LOST (-$23.30)
BB had 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif (two pair, Jacks and Threes) and LOST (-$60.45)
Pokey had 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (a full house, Threes full of Jacks) and WON (+$81.05)

Note that I didn't need the river 3 to win; that was pure gravy. At the time when the money went into the middle, the odds were as follows:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

903 games 0.005 secs 180,600 games/sec

Board: Js 2c 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.979% 72.98% 00.00% 659 0.00 { Jd3d }
Hand 1: 08.749% 08.75% 00.00% 79 0.00 { Jc2s }
Hand 2: 18.272% 18.27% 00.00% 165 0.00 { QdJh }
</pre><hr />

All told, I still think this was a very interesting hand. I'm glad you all agreed.

[orange]

jeeze. QJ. these .15/.30 games look soft!

[sputum]

YAY for me!
margot on Tilt
Still down for the day tho /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Emperor Norton]

I didn't make any money, but I feel vindicated nonetheless. In yo faces, "zomg this is always a set" peoples! Hahaha, I kid.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
easiest call ever?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm...sure didn't feel like it at the time. And seeing as how many people in this forum struggled with the hand, I'm not convinced that this was an easy decision. In the end, here's how the hand played out (you can thank Sputum and Vyse for the results):

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

<font color="black">Pokey (SB): $60.45</font>
BB: $115.05
UTG: $23.85
MP: $13.50
CO: $50.00
BTN: $23.30

CO posts $0.30
<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Pokey is dealt 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, CO checks, BTN calls $0.30, Pokey calls $0.15, BB checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($1.20) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 Players)
<font color="red">Pokey bets $0.70</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $3.30</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $9.00</font>, <font color="red">Pokey raises to $23.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $114.75</font>, BTN calls all-in for $14.00, Pokey calls all-in for $37.15
Uncalled bet of $54.60 returned to BB

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($144.50) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players - 3 All-In)

<font color="black">River:</font> ($144.50) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 Players - 3 All-In)

Pot Size: $144.50 ($3 Rake)

BTN had Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (two pair, Jacks and Threes) and LOST (-$23.30)
BB had 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif (two pair, Jacks and Threes) and LOST (-$60.45)
Pokey had 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (a full house, Threes full of Jacks) and WON (+$81.05)

Note that I didn't need the river 3 to win; that was pure gravy. At the time when the money went into the middle, the odds were as follows:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

903 games 0.005 secs 180,600 games/sec

Board: Js 2c 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.979% 72.98% 00.00% 659 0.00 { Jd3d }
Hand 1: 08.749% 08.75% 00.00% 79 0.00 { Jc2s }
Hand 2: 18.272% 18.27% 00.00% 165 0.00 { QdJh }
</pre><hr />

All told, I still think this was a very interesting hand. I'm glad you all agreed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean if this was 400BB's deep and not 200BB I think it would have been more interesting. But when you flop top two on the flop and have 200BB's, you're all in all day.

[ama0330]

I guess people suck a lot worse than I thought. nice call

[sh58]

haven't read all the posts...........

you say BB is a good player. i don't think a good player would raise OOP w 22 and 33. so he is the one we have to be worried about. button seems passive enough to limp with 22 and 33.
maybe he is silly and limped with aces. 23s and 45 for the straight draw.

it is a very difficult situation, i'd say one of them has a set often enough that calling is -EV even with 3-1 on your money. obviously you only have to beat the BB cos button only has half a stack, but he is the one most likely to have a set

i'd probably call tho cos i would have about 10 seconds to think. if i had enough time to think i would fold

at least you get to see what they had

PS - i love those tables, they are so cool

[Bonesy]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess people suck a lot worse than I thought. nice call

[/ QUOTE ]

[sh58]

wow. QJ wouldn't have even crossed my mind.
i think that this thread has brought up some interesting points

1)completing from the SB. good or bad. also, question to pokey... if it is folded round to you in the SB, how often do you raise, and with what range.

another point about completing in the SB. if you do it alot it will mess up your stats, so PAH users will underestimate your skill. 30/19/1.5 or whatever you are sounds most unimpressive, but that's cos you are limping in in the SB alot. and the agression seems low because you are playing alot OOP and thus probably check calling more than someone who folds alot in the SB (and you are playing more flops with worse hands, thus it is -EV to be really agressive)

2)sample size is really important. look at how you overestimated the abilities of the BB. his play in this hand was horrendus, and you said you were unimpressed by the button, but playing QJ like that is a sin.
at any stakes, but especially up to NL50 it is hard at 1st to tell how good or bad people are. at NL50 there are alot of grinders who play pretty good, like the people on this forum, but there are loads and loads of complete idiots who sometimes masquerade as good players for 100 hands or so.
so you have to be really careful with your reads.

3)a final point about postflop play. someone mentioned how you probably like the challenge of playing OOP to sharpen up your postflop skills. the question i have is......
what is more important, playing well OOP, or avoiding it as much as possible.
so is playing a tonne OOP sharpening up your postflop play, or is it detrimental (i'm not pointing to one or the other, just throwing it out there)

[Gigglegirl]

Interesting points.
1) I'm even looser and more passive than Pokey from SB and somehow I make a profit from that position! I'm obviously not in Pokeys league so I presume I'm just running good from there.
If it's folded round to me in SB, I'm raising ATC or folding, depending on Villain, but pretty much never open completing. Standard I think?
I think the check raise is a powerful weapon as well as the 'first to bluff' advantage Pokey mentioned.
I never thought about the meta game advantages of completing so much from SB making my stats look 'worse' than they are, so thx for pointing that out.
2) BB didn't play the hand badly. He played it pretty optimally and nearly got Pokey to fold the best hand.
3) A lot of your best hands have got to be played out of position so you better learn how to play it well. It's tougher to get paid OOP too but if you want to become a winning balanced player, you've got to work on it and at least try and make it neutral EV.
I tend to avoid marginal hands against good players OOP but I've no problem playing fish OOP.
So playing well OOP is better than avoiding it although as you say you still need the skill to know when you need to avoid it.

[Check_The_Nuts]

I think button has 45o and is squeezing with enough equity+a big pot. He's hoping we fold something like what we have IMO. BB could be doing this fairly light with AJ/QJ or whatever figuring we're not strong very often and that button is FOS. But I dunno its a pretty hard callt o make, even getting 3-1.