Hitting a bird while golfing

[RoundGuy]

Yesterday, Rob Lowe of West Wing and Brat Pack fame was playing a Pro-Am tournament in Des Moines. On one of his shots, he hit and killed a Goldfinch in flight (Iowa's state bird).

Lowe: "That's unbelievable. Who comes here and kills the state bird? Only me."

Now, on the news today, someone put the odds of him doing this at 240,000,000 to 1.

Please explain to me how anyone could possibly even begin to put odds on an event like this.

[Alex-db]

Density of Goldfinchs in golf course air space = y /m^3.
Chance of no finch in a unit area = 1-y
Average shot travels through X m^3 air.

Probability of not hitting finch = (1-y)^X

Would that do it?

[oe39]

[ QUOTE ]
Density of Goldfinchs in golf course air space = y /m^3.
Chance of no finch in a unit area = 1-y
Average shot travels through X m^3 air.

Probability of not hitting finch = (1-y)^X

Would that do it?

[/ QUOTE ]

unit check?

[Alex-db]

Yeah it was lazy, I was just hoping the theory was communicated, a little.

[Siegmund]

I would suggest (number of birds reported killed during golfing annually) / (number of rounds of golf played annually), for a starting point.

The first number is quite small, but a bit of googling / trivia book hunting will turn up several previous reports of it. The second number will be some millions per year - I'm sure there are industry statistics.

We aren't told whether the quoted 240,000,000 is for one drive, or one hole, or one round - but it looks like the right ballpark to me for one-drive or one-hole number, a bit too rare for a full round.

Edited to add: the above was for all birds. If you restrict it to specifically goldfinches, that'd make it rarer.

[RoundGuy]

I guess my thinking went like this:

What are the odds that at that specific moment, on that specific hole, a 1.5" diameter golf ball could be hit at the perfect trajectory to kill a 4" goldfinch (not a robin, or sparrow, or whatever), in-flight, by a nationally known celebrity?

I have no idea why I'm obsessing on this. I just believe the variables are too complex for anyone to give any kind of reasonable probability assessment -- and I think the guy pulled the 240,000,000 number out of his ass.

[Butcho22]

I'd like to see some odds on Randy Johnson taking out that bird with his fastball.

[MrMon]

Consider the following, although not identical situation, and realize how common it is. Random golfer is aiming his shot for the hole from at least 150 yards away - what are the odds that the ball, in flight, will hit the hole but not necessarily stay in. If you figure the the hole is approximately the size of the average bird (some larger, some smaller), the random golfer will be able to tell you of at least once in their golf playing history of having hit the hole from that distance. I'm terrible, but I've done it, and I've hit a bird as well, though it was a rather large duck sitting by the green.

The odds of one golfer hitting one particular type of bird, those are pretty short. But the odds of someone hitting a bird on the golf course - well, someone has to win the lottery, despite the odds of it being short for any one person.

[surftheiop]

But your aiming at the hole, i dont think he was aiming at birds

[MrMon]

I doesn't make any difference, you are hitting a small target. For your average golfer, the hole is just as random as any other area in the same direction, you are as likely to hit it as any other spot.

[tshort]

[ QUOTE ]
I doesn't make any difference, you are hitting a small target. For your average golfer, the hole is just as random as any other area in the same direction, you are as likely to hit it as any other spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The probability of hitting the hole is much greater than hitting a small bird in flight.