The river bluff-raise

[nath]

Full Tilt 1k. Don't know much about villain at this point. Doesn't seem particularly active or aggressive. How is this, as a move and as a size?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $50/$100
8 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $794
UTG+1: $7030
MP1: $5960
MP2: $3523
CO: $3640
Hero: $5700
SB: $9055
BB: $4203

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif
5 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $275</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($650, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($650, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $400</font>, Hero calls.

River: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($1450, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $600</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2250</font>

[woodguy]

You are not folding a K, but folding all else (no RR PF so QQ &amp; JJ are probably out).... I like it, looks slow playish enough to get more than enough folds to be +EV, not to mention he probably doesn't have much on this board.

If he calls with a T or 88 he knows you.

Regards,
Woodguy

[curtains]

Seems pretty logical to me after that river card and his weak bet.

[uclabruinz]

You're getting called a lot by a thinking player. You're line looks too much like some sort of busted draw or weak hand or air and it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

You're getting called a lot by a thinking player. You're line looks too much like some sort of busted draw or weak hand or air and it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not just repping a K.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You're getting called a lot by a thinking player. You're line looks too much like some sort of busted draw or weak hand or air and it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not just repping a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://members.optusnet.com.au/alphawolfau/Funny_shit/captain_obvious.jpg

[the alex]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting called a lot by a thinking player. You're line looks too much like some sort of busted draw or weak hand or air and it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

King high combo draws and QJ just got there.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
and it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are the one who wrote the above, not me.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting called a lot by a thinking player. You're line looks too much like some sort of busted draw or weak hand or air and it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol at some unknown on FTP being a thinking player.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are the one who wrote the above, not me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. And apparently you misinterpreted it. Oh well, cocktails!

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're getting called a lot by a thinking player. You're line looks too much like some sort of busted draw or weak hand or air and it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol at some unknown on FTP being a thinking player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree, which is why I didn't really offer an opinion on the bluff in this particular instance, just warning in general that it looks relatively easy to sniff out by a good player.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Correct. And apparently you misinterpreted it.

[/ QUOTE ]


Apparently.


http://www.spirituosenworld.de/produkte/bourbon/details/makers_mark_gr.jpg

http://www.beerhaikudaily.com/images/corona1.jpg

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
You've never seen me value call AK on the turn?

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
You've never seen me value call AK on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would expect you to bet the flop with AK.

[the alex]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
You've never seen me value call AK on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you check the flop for value after opening the button with AK?

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you check the flop for value after opening the button with AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking the flop here is normal for me with AK.

It really slows down the mid pairs that c/r a flop bet on such a dry board.

edit: and it also looks "suspicious/slowplayish" to some

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's really hard to see how you get to the river with a K in your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
You've never seen me value call AK on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would expect you to bet the flop with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]
I do a lot of weird things.

[Eagles]

Nath,
I think you are repping such a narrow range of made hands that you will get looked up a lot.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
Nath,
I think you are repping such a narrow range of made hands that you will get looked up a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. How narrow do you think my range of made hands is in this spot?

[Eagles]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nath,
I think you are repping such a narrow range of made hands that you will get looked up a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. How narrow do you think my range of made hands is in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]
I should say value raising. The thing is you would bet most pairs on the flop. KT is unlikely K9 is possible. You would get more in with a set/KK on either the flop or the turn or I'd imagine you would bet QJ/78 a lot on this flop but you would check some of the time and I can't imagine you raising one pair for value that often on the river much but you might. Basically your range here is either a straight or air and I think because of this you will get looked up light fairly often. You might raise stuff like Khxh or AK sometimes (which I think is probably good) but I think you get called too often here because its so easy to discount most sets/two pair

[stealthmunk]

seems pretty terrible to me.
I really hope villain called with 9x/10x so I'm even more right.

[RobertJohn]

He has to fold greater than 48% of the time which probably makes it close. There are some competing thoughts that came to mind that have already been mentioned:

[ QUOTE ]
[the move] seems pretty logical to me after that river card and his weak bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This river seems like a great card for your range given your flop check; also, after he bet the turn, his small river lead OOP does seem like some sort of blocking bet with a weak made hand

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting called a lot by a thinking player. You're line looks too much like some sort of busted draw or weak hand or air

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't imagine you raising one pair for value that often on the river much but you might. Basically your range here is either a straight or air and I think because of this you will get looked up light fairly often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically the question comes down to how often does Villain have a weak made hand (JT,88,A9) and how frequently does he pay off a river raise with those hands, how often is he following through on a turn bluff or semi-bluff (w/ like A/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif or QJ or air), and how often does he have any other hand that will pay off a river raise.

I think your river bluff-raise size is nice in that it’s big enough and the board is such that you are representing a pretty strong range (like AK at least, most of the time) and it will make him think twice about calling off with a Ten or worse since it appears you are willing to commit yourself.

[Crispy]

Hmmmmm. I think if the play went bet call/ check check, then bet raise. Your hand would be a lot more believable. I dunno if you really ever call the turn with AK, maybe with some history like if he was laggy. If the villan isnt paying attention etc, then I like this line a lot.

[yaaaflow]

I don't know if you're repping a big enough hand here. I suspect you'd bet an open ended draw on the flop or put in more money on the flop/turn with a set/two pair. I don't find many lags get to the river with a huge hand here in this way and I think a good opponent (or a calling station) will find it suspicious enough to look you up lightly. If he doesn't know you or he's a tag on auto-pilot you'll probably put him off most hands here.

[THEOSU]

nath,

i think the river bluff raise SHOULD be a very powerful weapon.

but then i get called by like 77 here waaaaaaaaaaay too often, and am amazed at how people just say "wtf he like never has a king here i call lol i was right he was bluffing omg i'm awesome look at my stack" so i kinda decided to tone that jazz down. still, it's goddamn sexy when it works.

[NoahSD]

That small bet on that river is like always a hand that beats you that folds to a raise. I'm wondering if like 2500 has enough more FE to make it worth it, but I definitely like the raise regardless.

[jon_1van]

Did you consider raising the turn to protect your hand from possible high cards (which are played more often vs button raises). You also maaay fold a few 89 type hands.

It looks like you're deep enough to raise/fold the turn.


This was my immediate thought, but calling seems fine too if you think your opponent is more likely to play a small pot.