Negreanu's blog today ...

[baltostar]

From Negreanu's blog today:

"As for the WSOP, so far so good. I have played two tournaments, and while I have failed to cash in both I'm pretty excited about my play so far and feel good about the rest of the WSOP. In both events it wasn't me who broke myself, it was the cards:

Event #1: A player made a terrible play with 88 pre-flop against my KK going all in pre-flop, then flopping an 8.

Event #3: I raised to 2000 with 5d 7d got a caller behind me and both blinds called. The flop was Qs 4h 5h. Both blinds checked and I bet 4000. All folded to the BB who called. The turn was a Qd and the big blind went all in. I was absolutely certain that he was on a draw so I called for my last 9000. He showed 6-7, and hit a 3 for a straight on the river. Had I won that pot I'd be close to 40,000 in chips and rolling in the tournament with about 450 left."


Pot is 16k , BB has open-ender, puts Daniel allin for 9k, getting 1.8:1 + fold equity. It's 4.75:1 to hit & win. Actually a little worse since flush is a possibility.

How much can we fault BB's turn push; fold equity should be considerable with that board.

At any rate, can you fault it as much as Daniel's call against a paired, suited board with weak 2nd pair ... ?

Sure, if he's 100% on his read, he's getting 2.8:1 when he's 1:4.1 to win ... but how's a read ever 100% ?

What do people think ?

[Cornell Fiji]

good shove, good call.

[Eagles]

[ QUOTE ]
bad shove, good call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Crai the flop is so much better than call shove turn.

[gobboboy]

Agreed, no way Daniel can call a check/shove. If he does he's psychotic. I would snapcall against the bb's line here, he NEVER has it.

[Toronexti]

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, no way Daniel can call a check/shove. If he does he's psychotic. I would snapcall against the bb's line here, he NEVER has it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Never as in he never has a Q or he never has 75 beat?

[oyvindgee]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, no way Daniel can call a check/shove. If he does he's psychotic. I would snapcall against the bb's line here, he NEVER has it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Never as in he never has a Q or he never has 75 beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are almost the same.

[Crispy]

I would do exactly was negreanu did. Seems he is playing well.

[Todd Terry]

I don't like the shove on the turn. There's 14K in the pot, Daniel has only 9K left and has shown strength in the hand. Daniel fired a continuation bet of 30% of his chips into 2 players with a flop which had a flush draw and a high card on it, would he do that with nothing? BB should think there's a significant likelihood he's getting called.

As for the call, it's a live event, Daniel said he had a read, he turned out to be right, so you can't possibly fault his play. If the hand were played on the net, I think the BB could have a queen -- he called rather than raised on the flop because Daniel showed strength risking a significant chunk of his stack betting into two people. The odds of Daniel having a queen with a better kicker go way down when the second queen appears, BB now knows his hand his good, so he might put Daniel on a big draw, at which point he doesn't want to give a free card.

[Kala1928]

Its a standard "I dont have anything" line by the BB. People dont bluff here if they have a pair and people (almost) always check if they have a queen, especially since they have so little left than trying to blow someone off their hand with trips when you only have one bet left is retarted. You don't need a specific "live read" to call this.
People just think "wow thats a good card to bluff" but they don't realize they would NEVER play a queen like that.

[BarryLyndon]

If the two of them were one more level up on thinking, this would be good shove, good call. As it is, bad shove, good call.

Barry

[baltostar]

[ QUOTE ]


As for the call, it's a live event, Daniel said he had a read, he turned out to be right, so you can't possibly fault his play. If the hand were played on the net, I think the BB could have a queen -- he called rather than raised on the flop because Daniel showed strength risking a significant chunk of his stack betting into two people. The odds of Daniel having a queen with a better kicker go way down when the second queen appears, BB now knows his hand his good, so he might put Daniel on a big draw, at which point he doesn't want to give a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want to apply the logic "Q shows on turn, odds opponent has Q go way down" you have to apply it to both players.

BB's draw mostly figures the same against any pair, two pair, trips/set. (hitting 6 or 7 beats <=55, so not quite the same). Q hits turn => Daniel less likely to have Q, and this argues a little more for push.

Daniel sees turn Q and (1) chance BB has QQ or QQQ goes down, this is good for his 55 but (2) if BB has QQQ this is bad for his 55. I'd say #2 is little more of a factor than #1 so Q on turn weakens Daniel's hand (assuming neutral read).

Ok, I'm not going to fault Daniel on his read ... but is this because (1) he says so (2) he's known as a great reader (3) he was right (spurious logic) or (4) something else ?

I'm not arguing against Daniel's call, I'm just not sure it was a no-brainer.

Gobbo summed it up. Name me one hand that is beating DN's hand that takes this [censored] line. Yeah, I really think BB is taking this line with Qx or 66-JJ. Psh.