Hand from $1500 WSOP PL

[curtains]

We have about 150 people left out of original 780.

I had about 10.5k in chips. Someone from 3 off the button with like 25k in chips limps for 600. (blinds are 300-600). The guy seemed relatively normal, not terrible or anything but not great either? I have QTh on the button. I can either call or raise, and due to my tight image I elected to raise to 2600 and because I didn't think the limper had that big a hand and because I want 1500 chips please. They called. The flop came 755 with one heart. They bet out for 2000. I have 7800 left. Your turn.

[Eagles]

This is very close. Any live reads?

[bigj0e03]

people never fold, so if you think you have pot odds but I don't think they ever fold.

[curtains]

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This is very close. Any live reads?

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Felt he had some pair. Didn't know if he'd fold it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[adanthar]

they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

[Eagles]

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people never fold, so if you think you have pot odds but I don't think they ever fold.

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I was thinking this. The only reason I shove would be if you felt villain would bet to find out where he was and than fold.

[curtains]

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

[curtains]

Screw this Im impatient, going to post all my analysis from my LJ now, was going to wait longer but anyway:



I had about 10.5k in chips. Someone from 3 off the button with like 25k in chips limps for 600. (blinds are 300-600). I have QTh on the button. I can either call or raise, and due to my tight image I elected to raise to 2600 and because I didn't think the limper had that big a hand. They called. The flop came 755 with one heart. They bet out for 2000. I can raise them like 5800 more, which is what I eventually elected to do.

They thought for quite a bit and ended up calling with 44, which is actually not that bad a result for me, giving me close to 40% equity. But ok I knew when pushing that he was very likely to have some pair, so let's be generous and give him 66. In that situation I have about 28% equity. In the actual hand I should be willing to push if I knew his cards (44). If he has 66 or something I am no longer able to do that if I know they are very likely to call. (which is around where I thought he'd be, but more likely to have 22-44 than 88, as I think he'd have very likely raised the bigger pairs PF.)

Anyway in that circumstance, the pot is 8100 when I put in my final raise of 5800 more. So let's say he folds just 20% of the time:

I will profit 5500 immediately 20% of the time (The other 2600 in the pot was mine from preflop).
The other 80% of the time I will have 28% of 21700. So:

57.6% of the time I will lose my final 7800
22.4% of the time I will win a huge pot and gain the 11,300 that's in the pot.


So .2* 5500 = 1100
.224* 11300 = 2531.2

for a total of 3631.2

subtracted by

57.6* 7800 = 4492.8


So in this scenario moving allin would cost me 800 chips on average, assuming I'm not a math idiot, which is about 25-35% likely to be true. I do think this is relatively close to a worst case scenario, especially given that he had 44 in the hand, which made it a very clear +EV play for me if he folds just 20% of the time. Also okay maybe he folds more than that since I'm tight, I was certainly banking on it when I moved allin, but knew that it's not the complete end of life when they do call.




Anyway I dunno, it feels like the entire hand was okay, but if someone can dispute the math/analysis please do so, because I don't want to be guilty of erroneously justifying my own play. I of course didn't do all these calculations while playing, I just sort of estimated and decided to go allin. I know that these overcards vs underpair situations are often reasonable because they don't have to fold that often for it to be correct. Just want to make sure I'm thinking clearly right after getting all the chips in with Queen High.


btw other option is to flat call flop and bet any broadway turn card. Seems a little too exotic to me somehow, but who knows maybe it's not the worst thing ever.

[adanthar]

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

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well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

[curtains]

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

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well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

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Well its crucual because we win about 40% of the time against the lower pairs, which is really a lot. But we win much less against 66 :/

[nath]

You know what, I kinda like push, because the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he opens with 66

[morello]

Ugh. I really like raising here if we are just a tad bit deeper. With only 5800 to raise, I suspect they will just shrug and make some "pot odds" based called. If you could raise 8k more, I think you would see a lot more folds. Even still, it's pretty close, especially given your tight image. I like the preflop raise.

[Mench]

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

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well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

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I like it and would play the exact same on the flop. Problem is I run bad, and they always call/hold.

[NHFunkii]

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You know what, I kinda like push, because the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he opens with 66

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eh I think the vast majority of people play 22-44 exactly the same as they play 66. seems like 77 or 88 is sort of the border of 'I might hit an overpair with this hand so I should raise' for a lot of people. I might have just made that up though.

[djk123]

I am curious how you came up with the 20% folding number. I think he almost always has a pair here, and he's never folding a pair imo as it's just not that many more chips for him to call. Once he bets out on the flop I think pairs make up more than 80% of his range. Also, though this may be way off, I don't think that it's out of the question that some of the time when he just has overcards he talks himself into calling.

So I would fold because I don't think you have enough FE. Like someone else said, I would like this play a lot more if you had a few k more chips.

[curtains]

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I am curious how you came up with the 20% folding number. I think he almost always has a pair here, and he's never folding a pair imo as it's just not that many more chips for him to call. Once he bets out on the flop I think pairs make up more than 80% of his range. Also, though this may be way off, I don't think that it's out of the question that some of the time when he just has overcards he talks himself into calling.

So I would fold because I don't think you have enough FE. Like someone else said, I would like this play a lot more if you had a few k more chips.

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I just came up with a relatively small number. I also gave him a hand in the high range of his hands. I felt this would give me a more conservative answer as to whether my play was correct, so it'd be harder to lie to myself. Personally I think 20% is reasonable, I had a very tight table image and people play differently live, more capable of folding when they know they are beat, because they don't want to sit there looking like a giant jackass calling off all their chips with 44 to an overpair when it's obvious thats what I'm representing.


Anyway if you give him something like 22-66 and weight them all evenly (which I think is fair, he will sometimes raise 66, and sometimes fold 22-33), we are getting good odds anyway, so he probably has to fold less than 20% of the time.

[THEOSU]

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

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well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

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this is why i like a call here.

you have six pure outs to the best hand, eight bluff outs, maybe even 4 more bluff outs (if he hems and haws and folds when jack falls), and 9 or 10 hearts you wouldn't mind getting it in with (not sure which card was the heart, whether it was one of the two sevens or the five. obv if the 7h falls, you're not too happy about the flush draw). you're peeling 2k from a 6k pot for 14+ cards, that's a great price.

[nath]

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You know what, I kinda like push, because the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he opens with 66

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eh I think the vast majority of people play 22-44 exactly the same as they play 66. seems like 77 or 88 is sort of the border of 'I might hit an overpair with this hand so I should raise' for a lot of people. I might have just made that up though.

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I think it's more of a gradation, i.e. the higher the pair gets the more likely he is to raise it PF. I think 66 is that much likelier to be opened than 44-22, at least enough to weigh it appropriately when deciding whether or not to move in here (not just for the equity when called bu tthe likelihood he folds 22-44 more than 66).

[curtains]

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You know what, I kinda like push, because the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he opens with 66

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eh I think the vast majority of people play 22-44 exactly the same as they play 66. seems like 77 or 88 is sort of the border of 'I might hit an overpair with this hand so I should raise' for a lot of people. I might have just made that up though.

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I think it's more of a gradation, i.e. the higher the pair gets the more likely he is to raise it PF. I think 66 is that much likelier to be opened than 44-22, at least enough to weigh it appropriately when deciding whether or not to move in here (not just for the equity when called bu tthe likelihood he folds 22-44 more than 66).

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Funny I just posted exactly the same thing but decided to not post it at the last second.

[curtains]

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

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this is why i like a call here.

you have six pure outs to the best hand, eight bluff outs, maybe even 4 more bluff outs (if he hems and haws and folds when jack falls), and 9 or 10 hearts you wouldn't mind getting it in with (not sure which card was the heart, whether it was one of the two sevens or the five. obv if the 7h falls, you're not too happy about the flush draw). you're peeling 2k from a 6k pot for 14+ cards, that's a great price.

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Yeah I think its an option, just a difficult one to evaluate. Also I could get two free cards if he gets scared on the turn and does something like check when a 9 or 8 comes. btw please note that if a 7 comes I have the best hand, and the guy probably isn't going to try to bluff me off of it, unless hes a really optimistic guy.

[djk123]

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I am curious how you came up with the 20% folding number. I think he almost always has a pair here, and he's never folding a pair imo as it's just not that many more chips for him to call. Once he bets out on the flop I think pairs make up more than 80% of his range. Also, though this may be way off, I don't think that it's out of the question that some of the time when he just has overcards he talks himself into calling.

So I would fold because I don't think you have enough FE. Like someone else said, I would like this play a lot more if you had a few k more chips.

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I just came up with a relatively small number. I also gave him a hand in the high range of his hands. I felt this would give me a more conservative answer as to whether my play was correct, so it'd be harder to lie to myself. Personally I think 20% is reasonable, I had a very tight table image and people play differently live, more capable of folding when they know they are beat, because they don't want to sit there looking like a giant jackass calling off all their chips with 44 to an overpair when it's obvious thats what I'm representing.


Anyway if you give him something like 22-66 and weight them all evenly (which I think is fair, he will sometimes raise 66, and sometimes fold 22-33), we are getting good odds anyway, so he probably has to fold less than 20% of the time.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

24,750 games 0.001 secs 24,750,000 games/sec

Board: 7h 5s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.358% 34.08% 01.27% 8436 315.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 64.642% 63.37% 01.27% 15684 315.00 { 66-22 }


(.2*5500 + .8 * .35358 * 11300) - (.8*.64642*7800)=+262.702

So yea if he folds at least 20% of time it is +ev.


It's break even when (x*5500 + (1-x) * .35358 * 11300) - ((1-x)*.64642*7800)=0 x=0.159872

So if he's folding about 16% of the time, it's breakeven. I dunno I just don't see him folding this often, but I have never played live so maybe you are right.

[curtains]

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I am curious how you came up with the 20% folding number. I think he almost always has a pair here, and he's never folding a pair imo as it's just not that many more chips for him to call. Once he bets out on the flop I think pairs make up more than 80% of his range. Also, though this may be way off, I don't think that it's out of the question that some of the time when he just has overcards he talks himself into calling.

So I would fold because I don't think you have enough FE. Like someone else said, I would like this play a lot more if you had a few k more chips.

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I just came up with a relatively small number. I also gave him a hand in the high range of his hands. I felt this would give me a more conservative answer as to whether my play was correct, so it'd be harder to lie to myself. Personally I think 20% is reasonable, I had a very tight table image and people play differently live, more capable of folding when they know they are beat, because they don't want to sit there looking like a giant jackass calling off all their chips with 44 to an overpair when it's obvious thats what I'm representing.


Anyway if you give him something like 22-66 and weight them all evenly (which I think is fair, he will sometimes raise 66, and sometimes fold 22-33), we are getting good odds anyway, so he probably has to fold less than 20% of the time.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

24,750 games 0.001 secs 24,750,000 games/sec

Board: 7h 5s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.358% 34.08% 01.27% 8436 315.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 64.642% 63.37% 01.27% 15684 315.00 { 66-22 }


(.2*5500 + .8 * .35358 * 11300) - (.8*.64642*7800)=+262.702

So yea if he folds at least 20% of time it is +ev.


It's break even when (x*5500 + (1-x) * .35358 * 11300) - ((1-x)*.64642*7800)=0 x=0.159872

So if he's folding about 16% of the time, it's breakeven. I dunno I just don't see him folding this often, but I have never played live so maybe you are right.

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Honestly at the time I thought he'd fold a decent amount of the time. Probably definitely over 25%. But ok I get overoptimistic sometimes.

[djk123]

I could be way off and you be right, I don't know. I'm just trying to think what other hands he would lead like this besides pairs. Also, if he's calling 44, I think he's calling 22-33 since they're basically the same in this spot.

[THEOSU]

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

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this is why i like a call here.

you have six pure outs to the best hand, eight bluff outs, maybe even 4 more bluff outs (if he hems and haws and folds when jack falls), and 9 or 10 hearts you wouldn't mind getting it in with (not sure which card was the heart, whether it was one of the two sevens or the five. obv if the 7h falls, you're not too happy about the flush draw). you're peeling 2k from a 6k pot for 14+ cards, that's a great price.

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Yeah I think its an option, just a difficult one to evaluate. Also I could get two free cards if he gets scared on the turn and does something like check when a 9 or 8 comes. btw please note that if a 7 comes I have the best hand, and the guy probably isn't going to try to bluff me off of it, unless hes a really optimistic guy.

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yeah, i was going by memory after quoting the level headed pirate and thought the flop was 775. so obv if the 5h falls, you're not happy, although you do pick up an additional out!

[curtains]

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I could be way off and you be right, I don't know. I'm just trying to think what other hands he would lead like this besides pairs. Also, if he's calling 44, I think he's calling 22-33 since they're basically the same in this spot.

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I'm talking about preflop, are you? You know slightly more likely to fold 22+33, but also slightly more likely to raise 66.

[djk123]

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I could be way off and you be right, I don't know. I'm just trying to think what other hands he would lead like this besides pairs. Also, if he's calling 44, I think he's calling 22-33 since they're basically the same in this spot.

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Oh I was talking about postflop.
I'm talking about preflop, are you? You know slightly more likely to fold 22+33, but also slightly more likely to raise 66.

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Oh yea. I was talking about postflop.