DS, god, and probability: the real brandi story

[PLOlover]

so anyway DS is walking (from the poker table) along on his way to the sports book after a quickie "mentoring" detour, planning on showing all those ivy league awholes whos the best when he wins the world series of horse betting,

but when he gets there instead of a cashier type it's the devil incarnate. the devil asks him if he would like to place a wager. DS says are you working here now or something? but the devil just smiles.

The devil continues on and says that this is a sidebet that DS doesn't really have to worry about the details, it's a free offer.

DS now is about to pee his pants but luckily he went right after his mentoring session so holds it together for the time being.

The devil details his offer as follows. He places two envelopes, A and B, on the counter. He will offer DS, free of charge, the choice of taking both envelopes, or just taking envelope A . The devil claims that he knows with virtual certainty what DS will pick, given that the devil has perfected his human measure metric analysis nomena, or H.U.M.A.N. for short, and has used it to win many people parlays. In fact, says the devil, it has never been wrong. (he mutters something about Job being before the whole H.U.M.A.N. system, and was in fact its impetuous.) The devil says he has already written a promissory note in each envelope, guarantored by "the big guy", based on the devil's prediction which has already been made.

The devil tells you that if he has predicted DS will pick only envelope A, they contain
A- 80/20 favorable staking deal with Brandi who will be guaranteed to win the world series main event (he mentions a similiar deal has been made before ...) as well as as many special mentoring sessions with Brandi (devil winks lewdly) as DS likes.
B- azz many venal sins with Brandi as DS desires

The devil tells you that if he has predicted DS will pick both envelopes, the envelopes contain
A- a free subscription to the watchtower magazine.
B- azz many venal sins with Brandi as DS desires

The envelopes are already on the table and an angel appears behind DS as a security guard and tells him to hurry up and pick it's not a trick or anything, what's written in the envelopes will not change,the contents are known to the angel, etc., and it is indeed guarantored by the big guy himself.

DS picked ...

[baumer]

his nose.

[PLOlover]

[ QUOTE ]
his nose.

[/ QUOTE ]

please don't take my insipidly crafted story into the depths of the absurd.

[PairTheBoard]

If I'm understanding your settup right, we had a pretty lengthy discussion of this topic a while back. The logical problems involving foreknowledge and free will. Is it possible to know what the foreknowledge must be and thereby take advantage of it by switching to the more beneficial decision which contradicts the foreknowledge? Does the decision produce the foreknowlege or does the foreknowledge force the decision? I don't think we ever reached a consensus about what was going on. The analysis got very tricky to the point of being hard to distinguish from babble. I suspect we needed another dimension of thought to make sense of it.



PairTheBoard

[Alex-db]

Assuming we can't work out which would be chosen, and chance of 2nd-guessing himself makes the choice effectively 50-50. And assuming devil's invention works perfectly.

So if he chooses naturally he gets either the (a) "80/20 deal etc" or (b) "magazine & venal sins"

Say he tosses an unbiased coin to choose instead:

1/4 same result (a)
1/4 (a) + "venal sins"

1/4 same result (b)
1/4 magazine only

These just need their utility priced up. Looks intuitively like choosing (not randomizing)just A is best here.

[Piers]

The devil’s bullshitting, which should be obvious. As to what DS would choose, both which should be almost as obvious, but I might be wrong.

Unless of course the devil’s not bullshitting, in which case DS will make the choice the devil predicts, personally I still think he is bullshitting.

BTW who’s Brandi?

[PLOlover]

[ QUOTE ]

If I'm understanding your settup right, we had a pretty lengthy discussion of this topic a while back. The logical problems involving foreknowledge and free will. Is it possible to know what the foreknowledge must be and thereby take advantage of it by switching to the more beneficial decision which contradicts the foreknowledge? Does the decision produce the foreknowlege or does the foreknowledge force the decision? I don't think we ever reached a consensus about what was going on. The analysis got very tricky to the point of being hard to distinguish from babble. I suspect we needed another dimension of thought to make sense of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes but the difference here is that DS may actually prefer that Brandi not win the world series lol.

[PLOlover]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming we can't work out which would be chosen, and chance of 2nd-guessing himself makes the choice effectively 50-50. And assuming devil's invention works perfectly.

So if he chooses naturally he gets either the (a) "80/20 deal etc" or (b) "magazine & venal sins"

[/ QUOTE ]

no, the the envelopes contents are already there.

if the devil predicted DS would take both they contain
A) watchtower magazine
B) potion to make brandi his love slave

if the devil predicted DS would choose only A they contain
A) magic so brandi wins world series and DS gets most of the money and also DS gets to mentor her sexually
B) potion to make brandi his love slave

[MaxWeiss]

David picks one envelope, and it's A. No question, end of discussion. He knows it's the right choice even though he hasn't been given the info we have because he's gone through the game theory in his head and has figured out that A and only A is the best choice. He wins 80% of the top prize at the series and buys himself a nice, brand new, deluxe pat on the back.

[Alex-db]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming we can't work out which would be chosen, and chance of 2nd-guessing himself makes the choice effectively 50-50. And assuming devil's invention works perfectly.

So if he chooses naturally he gets either the (a) "80/20 deal etc" or (b) "magazine & venal sins"

[/ QUOTE ]

no, the the envelopes contents are already there.

if the devil predicted DS would take both they contain
A) watchtower magazine
B) potion to make brandi his love slave

if the devil predicted DS would choose only A they contain
A) magic so brandi wins world series and DS gets most of the money and also DS gets to mentor her sexually
B) potion to make brandi his love slave

[/ QUOTE ]

So if he wants to pick 1 he gets (as in, it will be) magic + potion, if he picks 2 it will be magazine + potion.

If he tosses a coin and goes with that, sometimes it will give the same result he would have chosen. Sometimes it will give the opposite result - randomising being the only way to go against the Devil's machine.

So assuming DS's choices would be 50-50, we get the 1/4, 1/4, 1/4, 1/4 above.

Have I made a mistake above, or is this about the philosophy of frequency models?

[PairTheBoard]

[ QUOTE ]
Have I made a mistake above, or is this about the philosophy of frequency models?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. It's more about the logical problems of Foreknowledge vs Free Will. You have essentially modeled Free Will with the coin flip. The trouble is, the Devil is a supernatural being who can have foreknowledge of the outcome of the coin flip. So for those times the coin chooses both envelopes for you, the Devil has Forseen that and you end up losing out on the much more valuable prize in a futile attempt to get both prizes. It's a logical condundrum.

PairTheBoard

[Alex-db]

I think I avoid the awkard part of the problem since I never intuitively assume a genuine free will, I don't have any urge to think that people are like that, and I don't feel like I have any power to come to conclusions other than the ones I come to. Its like the bit of me that hears the internal commentary is just observing my brain making its way through life. But anyway...

I think of it in exactly the same way as if there was another person, lets call him John, and he has similar preferences to you in the result he is looking for.

Now assume John will choose, you can't talk to him, and the devil will guess his choice correctly. And you get the prize he chooses also

Now if you think John will choose each approximately x/y times, and the utility pricing makes you want a chance at the other prize, you also have the choice of flipping a coin to (50% of the time)override John's decision (but it is still of course dependent on what the Devil predicted he would have chosen.)

It makes sense to me anyway /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Edit: PTB - from the premises, I didn't think he could know the coin result, only that he could perfectly predict human behavior: I don't think a coin flip is anything like human (free?!) will.

[PLOlover]

[ QUOTE ]
David picks one envelope, and it's A. No question, end of discussion. He knows it's the right choice even though he hasn't been given the info we have because he's gone through the game theory in his head and has figured out that A and only A is the best choice. He wins 80% of the top prize at the series and buys himself a nice, brand new, deluxe pat on the back.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if he gets the watchtower? now since he's a reader he'll probably become a JW and on top of that no sex with brandi?

Besides, logically, the contents of the envelopes won't change, so there's no downside to picking both. He gets brandi in B, and if A has the money then it has the money.

But I think DS would pick both envelopes for a different reason.

[born2ramble]

Key words: "virtual certainty."
Maybe the Devil doesn't have as good a read on DS as he thinks!

I also think DS picks both, as, to him, there's no apparent downside. (the devil hasn't told DS about his predictions, right?) Even if it's just to see WHAT was in the damn thing (I bet DS is curious by nature.) The contents don't change! Pick both! Guaranteed by the big guy.

[PLOlover]

[ QUOTE ]
Key words: "virtual certainty."
Maybe the Devil doesn't have as good a read on DS as he thinks!

I also think DS picks both, as, to him, there's no apparent downside. (the devil hasn't told DS about his predictions, right?) Even if it's just to see WHAT was in the damn thing (I bet DS is curious by nature.) The contents don't change! Pick both! Guaranteed by the big guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

in the problem the guy is supposed to know that the devil or whoever is basically a perfect predictor.

[Justin A]

This is about as confusing as time travel.

[PLOlover]

[ QUOTE ]
This is about as confusing as time travel.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't wait for the world series m.e. to know for sure.

[Cue-Ball 66]

This was a so much better hypothetical before OP put his twist on it.

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
in the problem the guy is supposed to know that the devil or whoever is basically a perfect predictor.

[/ QUOTE ]

How? Why? Don’t know about DS, but there is no way I am ever going to know this.

You can make it a condition of the problem that the devil is a perfect predictor, but there is no way you can make me know this. Maybe DS is more gullible/less stubborn, but I am not so sure.

I guess you could have made it a condition of the problem that both DS and I know the devil is telling the truth. Except I don’t and wouldn’t, but what about DS that’s the real question. Is it possible for DS to be certain the devil is telling the truth? If not, and you assume he is doesn’t your question with the quoted addition, loose logical coherence?

If DS knows the Devil is lying he would take A and B, if he knows the Devil is telling the truth he would take A. If he is not sure well, I guess it depends.

[PLOlover]

[ QUOTE ]
How? Why? Don’t know about DS, but there is no way I am ever going to know this.

You can make it a condition of the problem that the devil is a perfect predictor, but there is no way you can make me know this. Maybe DS is more gullible/less stubborn, but I am not so sure.

I guess you could have made it a condition of the problem that both DS and I know the devil is telling the truth. Except I don’t and wouldn’t, but what about DS that’s the real question. Is it possible for DS to be certain the devil is telling the truth? If not, and you assume he is doesn’t your question with the quoted addition, loose logical coherence?

If DS knows the Devil is lying he would take A and B, if he knows the Devil is telling the truth he would take A. If he is not sure well, I guess it depends.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm such a half asser I shoulda made it where DS knows/should have known that the way he gets the wsop money in A was by having to marry brandi! I really missed an opportunity there. then the problem would totally be in the spirit I was thinking of.

[PLOlover]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm such a half asser I shoulda made it where DS knows/should have known that the way he gets the wsop money in A was by having to marry brandi! I really missed an opportunity there. then the problem would totally be in the spirit I was thinking of.

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess you could say a super genius could infer this, because
a) devil always screws you
b) how else could he get 85% of her win?

NOTICE THE BAYES PARLAY HERE LOL