Kinda simple hand from 1.5k NL event

[mlagoo]

Ok so blinds are 300/600/75, you have 9800 after posting your 600 BB (so 10.4 total).

Good/laggy player opens from EP, fishy guy calls in CO, good-ish loose player calls from button, fishy guy calls in SB.

You have 89s. What do you do?

(I hope this isn't too simple of a hand. This isn't a multi-part hand, this is it. So, sorry if it's dumb.)

[La Brujita]

opens for how much?

this is a gigabet type hand, you call wider than implied odds would normally dictate.

imo its ok to call more than 10pct of stack here.

[mlagoo]

Oh wow, I'm really sorry -- too late to edit now. He made it 1.8k, 3xBB. His standard raise.

[WarDekar]

I don't hate calling here, but you know you can't shove here as you have no FE.

I'm really not sure, I think it's kind of borderline call/fold.

[Inyaface]

Never fold
Call's prob best

[uclabruinz]

This is a good time to take a shot in this type of tournament. Call and flop a monster.

[wpr101]

I call. We are in between that point where we have a comfortable stack and a short stack... so it doesn't matter that much that we might lose 1800.

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
folds prob best

[/ QUOTE ]

[uclabruinz]

Can one of the resident math geniuses tell me the odds of flopping at least two pair when you have suited connectors (i.e., two pair, trips, straight, or flush)? I am not talking about draws, I am talking about the combined odds of flopping a big hand.

[adanthar]

if you call you'll have 8600 left and ~8K in the pot.

you're basically saying you want to call so you can flop a draw and then put the rest of your stack in as a dog with very little FE (cause flopping middle pair sure won't cut it.)

[shaundeeb]

Fold. Just too few chips to shove even fewer to call. You call and lose 2 more BBs it kills your restealability of your stack and esp with how that tourney was playing people fold to 12bbs shoves like a lot.

[Bond18]

Blegh, 15 BB stacks suck for seeing flops pretty bad. I'd want near 20ish before i start calling here.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
Can one of the resident math geniuses tell me the odds of flopping at least two pair when you have suited connectors (i.e., two pair, trips, straight, or flush)? I am not talking about draws, I am talking about the combined odds of flopping a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think I read somewhere it was like 24:1

Anyway I kinda like a shove since you're never getting called in more than one spot, and the pot is offering you a huge overlay to make a move at it

[curtains]

Hmm I guess I suck, I'd almost surely at least call here PF.

[nath]

In fact the more I think about it the more I REALLY like a shove

[WarDekar]

[ QUOTE ]
In fact the more I think about it the more I REALLY like a shove

[/ QUOTE ]

Me and mlagoo talked about this hand last night, and at first I said shove, but once I thought about stacks at all I realized he has absolutely no FE. I'm not sure all the other stacks involved, but he's getting at least 1 caller here no matter what, and yeah the overlay is decent but can't you find a better spot?

If OP had like... 12-13k I like a shove a lot more.

[shaundeeb]

[ QUOTE ]
In fact the more I think about it the more I REALLY like a shove

[/ QUOTE ]

He has less FE then he would if he had just 2 more BBs I like a shove but with his stack he's getting called, unless he makes a scary looking raise like making it 6k straight or something. And since people suck at reading stack sizes live they may not notice how short he was/is.

[betgo]

This is live, I would call. You may be able to take down the pot postflop more than you think. Plus if you push and get called by one player with top pair, you are ahead of pot odds with a draw and not that far behind pot odds with middle pair. There is some advantage to being short stacked postflop and able to push. Plus you could flop big.

[shaundeeb]

Betgo but soo many boards you whiff.

[0evg0]

you're probably getting called by like AJ+/KQ/77+ if you shove, sound right?

run the numbers. it's close between that and fold.

[WarDekar]

I think he's getting called lighter then that, especially by the guy in position if everyone else folds. He's getting pretty massive odds to call anything he called the OR with.

[gobboboy]

[ QUOTE ]
This is live, I would call. You may be able to take down the pot postflop more than you think. Plus if you push and get called by one player with top pair, you are ahead of pot odds with a draw and not that far behind pot odds with middle pair. There is some advantage to being short stacked postflop and able to push. Plus you could flop big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well we got the nine eight suited I guess it's worth a call. Yesterday I flopped two pair with this hand! Can ya believe that? Two pair.

[Mench]

I like a shove.

[Bonified]

[ QUOTE ]
Can one of the resident math geniuses tell me the odds of flopping at least two pair when you have suited connectors (i.e., two pair, trips, straight, or flush)? I am not talking about draws, I am talking about the combined odds of flopping a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to my program, 5.7% to flop two pair or better plus another 5.9% to flop a pair+draw or combined draw hand that has 11+ outs against an overpair (ie something you don't mind shoving with on the flop)

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can one of the resident math geniuses tell me the odds of flopping at least two pair when you have suited connectors (i.e., two pair, trips, straight, or flush)? I am not talking about draws, I am talking about the combined odds of flopping a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to my program, 5.7% to flop two pair or better plus another 5.9% to flop a pair+draw or combined draw hand that has 11+ outs against an overpair (ie something you don't mind shoving with on the flop)

[/ QUOTE ]
Does the program consider a board pair still counting as two pair. Example: a flop of 8JJ.

I'm not a big fan of shoving here. The UTG player will be able to call a reasonable number of times and you have two fish that you're trying to force out too. The chances that you steal the pot is pretty small IMO.

Calling looks like it isn't quite worth it with the numbers quoted above.

[0evg0]

gobbo wins.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can one of the resident math geniuses tell me the odds of flopping at least two pair when you have suited connectors (i.e., two pair, trips, straight, or flush)? I am not talking about draws, I am talking about the combined odds of flopping a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to my program, 5.7% to flop two pair or better plus another 5.9% to flop a pair+draw or combined draw hand that has 11+ outs against an overpair (ie something you don't mind shoving with on the flop)

[/ QUOTE ]
Does the program consider a board pair still counting as two pair. Example: a flop of 8JJ.

I'm not a big fan of shoving here. The UTG player will be able to call a reasonable number of times and you have two fish that you're trying to force out too. The chances that you steal the pot is pretty small IMO.

Calling looks like it isn't quite worth it with the numbers quoted above.

[/ QUOTE ]


Sometimes you'll flop a gutshot or something and itll get checked around. Yes it's rare but definitely happens sometimes. Same can be said if you flop one pair. It just feels like there's too much money in the pot and that we do have fold equity on some of our draws.

[mlagoo]

newt,

i agree with most of what you said -- that shoving has got to be wrong, and calling looks thin/bad. the other problem (and i think this is significant, and shaun mentioned it above), is that when i call and check/fold the overwhelming majority of flops that im gonna be check/folding, my stack has lost a lot of resteal FE -- instead of 9800 i'll be at 8600, 8200 after my SB. and at this table where people were opening light, i think it was important to hold onto that.

[Bonified]

It's been a while since I wrote it, but I don't think it does. Obv it shouldn't.

If it helps, there's also around 16% chance we flop 6-10 outs (regulation str8 or flush draw, pair + gutshot, etc).

[schwah]

i think calling in spots like this is one of the most common leaks at the ~15bb range. imo its a fold and not particularly close.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In fact the more I think about it the more I REALLY like a shove

[/ QUOTE ]

He has less FE then he would if he had just 2 more BBs I like a shove but with his stack he's getting called, unless he makes a scary looking raise like making it 6k straight or something. And since people suck at reading stack sizes live they may not notice how short he was/is.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't even care if I get called, I'm laying like 9800 to win 8400 so if I get called I'm usually pretty close vs a range and pot odds

[nath]

p.s. I read this in Phil Gordon's "Little Green Book", he calls it a "fish and chips sandwich" and since he won a WPT title I'm pretty sure he knows what he's talking about

[ASPoker8]

Guys, how big of a stack would Matt need for you to like shoving?

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, how big of a stack would Matt need for you to like shoving?

[/ QUOTE ]

imo like wardekar said, like 12k sounds about right...

[gravycakes]

[ QUOTE ]
i think calling in spots like this is one of the most common leaks at the ~15bb range. imo its a fold and not particularly close.

[/ QUOTE ]

[shaundeeb]

I think 10-15k you can just shove PF.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
I think 10-15k you can just shove PF.

[/ QUOTE ]
So 10.4k total doesn't fall into that range?

[Rekwob]

i like a shove here tbh considering the players in the pot and assuming you damage their stacks if they call and lose, it looks very strong if you have the image for it

[DJ Sensei]

the stacks of the other players involved matter here, right? and yet i see no mention of them anywhere.

fwiw i think i probably like a shove. a good chance to almost triple up and a presumably live hand? sign me up!

[mlagoo]

Sorry I didn't mention other stacks -- here they are:

EP raiser: ~25k
CO caller: ~10-12k
BTN caller: ~50k
SB caller: ~25k

[J.A.K.]

[ QUOTE ]
folds prob best

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]

Fold. Just too few chips to shove even fewer to call. You call and lose 2 more BBs it kills your restealability of your stack and esp with how that tourney was playing people fold to 12bbs shoves like a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

i think calling in spots like this is one of the most common leaks at the ~15bb range. imo its a fold and not particularly close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ansky/Shaun/Schwah,

Could you elaborate please? There were several strat posts where a hero was in the 15-18bb range and the general consensus (of the better players) was to call as there was not a significant difference between playing with 2 less (sometimes 1 less) bb. Mlagoo will have 13+bb after going through the sb. If they are opening light and folding to 12bb shoves, I would think this is still ok.

I guess I am having a hard time putting a value on those "2" bb- or recognizing the spots where they are significant. Is the primary reason for folding to maintain FE/resteal leverage? It seems that the times a 30k (or w/e)stack would call 8200 but fold to 9800 is rare. Or if we resteal, the difference between the odds we offer the stealer is 1.8-1 and 1.65-1 respectively.(assuming no other callers). What am I missing? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

(I am ignoring for now that the hand would be 5-way thus increasing the likelyhood that our FD on the flop may be dead. I am also ignoring that we would be slightly behind on PO if we flop a FD and get HU with an overpair.)

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry I didn't mention other stacks -- here they are:

EP raiser: ~25k
CO caller: ~10-12k
BTN caller: ~50k
SB caller: ~25k

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this makes it nicer for a shove. There's only one guy who you don't cripple.

[Bakes]

i think your image is important here. he's not raising your bb with air if he suspects that you'll jam over his good/laggy ass often.

[Clayton]

[ QUOTE ]
i think your image is important here. he's not raising your bb with air if he suspects that you'll jam over his good/laggy ass often.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol bakes, this is the wsop, like lower than the sunday mil, he is just looking at his cards going "DDDDDURRRRRRRRRRRRR" then tossing some chips out there.

then a bunch of people go "SSSSNNNNNNEEEEEERFFFF" and flatcall

[cakewalk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think your image is important here. he's not raising your bb with air if he suspects that you'll jam over his good/laggy ass often.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol bakes, this is the wsop, like lower than the sunday mil, he is just looking at his cards going "DDDDDURRRRRRRRRRRRR" then tossing some chips out there.

then a bunch of people go "SSSSNNNNNNEEEEEERFFFF" and flatcall

[/ QUOTE ]

While I agree with most of the points you made Clayton, I feel that there are a few "mmmmmmuuuuuuurrrrrrrrblessssssss" and "GGGGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAANKKKKKKSSSSS" that you may or may not of forgot to mention. Just thought i'd make you privy.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think your image is important here. he's not raising your bb with air if he suspects that you'll jam over his good/laggy ass often.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol bakes, this is the wsop, like lower than the sunday mil, he is just looking at his cards going "DDDDDURRRRRRRRRRRRR" then tossing some chips out there.

then a bunch of people go "SSSSNNNNNNEEEEEERFFFF" and flatcall

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you are mostly kidding, but I do hear this type of stuff all the time, and it is an incredibly dangerous overgenalization.

There is everything from the worst players in the world that couldn't measure up to my 10 year old daughter's skills to the very best in the world and everything betwee. Getting specific reads is very important like, for example, who might actually be aware of your image.

[Clayton]

is it fair for me tho paul to make my comments based on what is the most LIKELY table scenario? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

i leave in 2 days and i cant take it anymore!!!!

[RobertJohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Can one of the resident math geniuses tell me the odds of flopping at least two pair when you have suited connectors (i.e., two pair, trips, straight, or flush)? I am not talking about draws, I am talking about the combined odds of flopping a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

5.6%, or a little under 17-to-1

Courtesy of BruceZ (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=2948434&page=&vc=1)

[ImWeakTight@UCLA]

It feels that between folding calling and going all in there isnt a major difference, i go with fold.

[MaverickUSC]

Call. See a flop. Good cheap shot to get some chippers.

Devo

[AragornX151]

I think this is a shove or fold spot (though I do sometimes call because the cards look so damn pretty).

Technically, a fold is best. By calling, you're just investing too many chips OOP with a purely speculative hand. You essentially have to open shove any board you get a decent piece of (flush or str8 draw, pair + gutshot, etc) if you're going to make the call in the first place.

However, I think people are wrong in saying there's no FE in shoving, which is my choice here given hero's M and the fact that I DO think there's some serious folding equity. The live tournaments I've played in, ranging from $100 to $800, have all had one thing in common; 90% of the players simply cannot accurately judge stack sizes. It is, by far, the biggest difference between online and live play, and I think that the shove actually DOES have some serious folding equity. If the first few people fold, the people after often won't be thinking that this "was a great squeeze spot, he must be pushing light" and call with weaker hands. They'll fold a LOT more than people here, who I believe are predominantly online players, think. Even in a WSOP event.

Online, this is a fold (or a slightly weak call). The shove won't work there. But live, I like it a lot.

[curtains]

Did I mention that I think this is a call? And anyone who says its an obvious fold and huge leak is crazy. At worst its like slightly -EV. I'm sure it's possible that its -EV. I don't know for sure. However I would still call based on my current knowledge.

[NoahSD]

It's just a fold. Our equity when called (always) is way worse than some people are probably assuming it is. We're worse than 2:1 against 77+/AJ+. If we push and get called, we're effectively getting 1.68:1. That's a really big gap to make up with fold equity, and there's no way we actually make it up.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
It's just a fold. Our equity when called (always) is way worse than some people are probably assuming it is. We're worse than 2:1 against 77+/AJ+. If we push and get called, we're effectively getting 1.68:1. That's a really big gap to make up with fold equity, and there's no way we actually make it up.

[/ QUOTE ]
1.68:1? I really thought it was better for us than that. And I think there is a decent amount of FE here given that we have reason to believe ALL the other players in the hand are fairly loose.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a fold. Our equity when called (always) is way worse than some people are probably assuming it is. We're worse than 2:1 against 77+/AJ+. If we push and get called, we're effectively getting 1.68:1. That's a really big gap to make up with fold equity, and there's no way we actually make it up.

[/ QUOTE ]
1.68:1? I really thought it was better for us than that. And I think there is a decent amount of FE here given that we have reason to believe ALL the other players in the hand are fairly loose.

[/ QUOTE ]


Assuming you couldn't go allin, would you rather call or fold?

[Irish Mafia]

[ QUOTE ]
I call. We are in between that point where we have a comfortable stack and a short stack... so it doesn't matter that much that we might lose 1800.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhhh, not really. We are already quite short. 10,000 chips, and each orbit 1575 - or an "M" of just over 6. Although you are being laid HUGE odds - if you call and whiff - you are really going to be in desperation mode.

That being said - in these tournaments where you are starting w/o a deep stack - this is a decent risk to take, to try and build a monster stack.
-----

I have my own question (though I think I know the answer). We call. Flop comes 9-6-3 rainbow. I assume we open-shove?
What if the flop comes J-8-3 rainbow?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I call. We are in between that point where we have a comfortable stack and a short stack... so it doesn't matter that much that we might lose 1800.

[/ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

btw we are risking 1200, not 1800.

[uclabruinz]

Curtains, are you in favor of a call because you think it is cEV+, or because you believe that the tournament situation dictates a gamble here?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Curtains, are you in favor of a call because you think it is cEV+, or because you believe that the tournament situation dictates a gamble here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly I'm sure it's close. But it gives us the chance at attaining a big stack, which has other advantages. It's possible its slightly -EV, but it's never going to be more than very slight. And I'm not even sure that's the case.

[Irish Mafia]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I have my own question (though I think I know the answer). We call. Flop comes 9-6-3 rainbow. I assume we open-shove?
What if the flop comes J-8-3 rainbow?

[/ QUOTE ]