10k$ EPT Monte Carlo: Hand vs Greg Raymer

[TimberBee]

Hero is a young, talented online pokerplayer, and has played a lot of sng's and tournaments. He's also played some SnG's with Raymer online, and they've barely met in real life.

Raymer has a reputation for being aggressive, and is sometimes appending a LAG style early in the tournament.

Hero has 8k after some unfortunate hands, Raymer has 9k, after he lost 6k with a weird c/r/f on the river in an earlier hand.

The table is very hard, with a lot of european proffessionals.

Startstack is 15k, blinds are 25/50.

Folded to Hero on the button. Hero raises to 150T$ with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Raymer raises to 450T$ from the SB, BB folds. Hero raises to 1500T$. Raymer pushes all in, and hero calls.

Discuss

[gobboboy]

Don't 4bet. You have position. Once he 5bets you have to instamuck. He doesn't make gigantic moves like this. There's absolutely no reason to.

[stealthmunk]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't 4bet. You have position. Once he 5bets you have to instamuck. He doesn't make gigantic moves like this. There's absolutely no reason to.

[/ QUOTE ]

loooooooooooooooooooooool, wrong...but i know the results so i'm biased but raymer now that he's loaded loves to just say all in n not care.

[TimberBee]

I should clarify that I didn't play this hand myself. Just found it interesting. Don't want no mixups here...

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't 4bet. You have position. Once he 5bets you have to instamuck. He doesn't make gigantic moves like this. There's absolutely no reason to.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really like the 4-bet, but once you 4-bet, I would call the push button vs. BB given hero's image and villain's reputation.

[Ansky]

the 4bet is certainly fine but def muck now. If he's making a move, then u gotta just say congrats greg 15k for 1500 is really worth the risk at 25/50.

[snelgrave]

call the reraise pf and play poker. getting 160 BB in the middle w/AKo pf is awful.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
15k for 1500 is really worth the risk at 25/50.

[/ QUOTE ]
hero has 8k and raymer has 9k, which is very different than 15k apiece

so he's putting in 6500 to win 9500 which i think is enough to make this a call given the other factors (position, Raymer's aggressiveness and the chance he's in a mood to go big or go home).

[g0lfa]

let me guess, raymer has 8s8h???

[Schaefer]

To me, it depends on how active I've been. If I've been opening a lot in LP or Greg has been reraising me a lot then I 4-bet and call his shove every time. I understand that it's 160 BBs but you have AK in a button vs BB hand against a very aggressive player. If I've been quiet or he's respected my raises then I probably just call the 3-bet. I think prior history is very important in these spots.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
call the reraise pf and play poker. getting 160 BB in the middle w/AKo pf is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]
Man, and I was just thinking to myself "You know what HSMTT needs more of? Generic, context-free clichéd advice without explanation or elaboration."

[snelgrave]

apologies. i don't play this high, so my advice means little. to elaborate - if hero has been very active, the 4 bet is fine, but hero has to realize he is turning his hand into a bluff (unless Raymor is able to shove AQ or AJ when playing that deep). obv if hero has a read that's different. Perhaps Raymor is tilting from losing a big pot. As played it's prob a break even call of the push, but I'd let it go at that point.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
apologies. i don't play this high, so my advice means little. to elaborate - if hero has been very active, the 4 bet is fine, but hero has to realize he is turning his hand into a bluff (unless Raymor is able to shove AQ or AJ when playing that deep). obv if hero has a read that's different. Perhaps Raymor is tilting from losing a big pot. As played it's prob a break even call of the push, but I'd let it go at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]
No problem. It's just that a couple of the things you wrote were generic and empty phrases that didn't mean much. Here we're trying to get into actual analysis of why or how a certain line is correct in a given spot, and stay away from blanket statements that don't really mean anything or come from old and outdated advice.

[betgo]

If you analyze it, the 4-bet is probably a little better than a flat call. There is an advantage to flat calling and seeing the flop with position. If Raymer folds to the 4-bet, that is not a great result, but OK. If he pushes, then you have a borderline decision, so that is not a great result. If he calls, that is sort of good, as you built the pot with a very strong hand and position.

When Raymer, pushes, you are probably a little ahead of pot odds. This is button versus BB with 2 aggressive players. How both players have been playing, particularly against each other in late position, is also relevant.

[shaniac]

[ QUOTE ]
If you analyze it, the 4-bet is probably a little better than a flat call. There is an advantage to flat calling and seeing the flop with position. If Raymer folds to the 4-bet, that is not a great result, but OK. If he pushes, then you have a borderline decision, so that is not a great result. If he calls, that is sort of good, as you built the pot with a very strong hand and position.

When Raymer, pushes, you are probably a little ahead of pot odds. This is button versus BB with 2 aggressive players. How both players have been playing, particularly against each other in late position, is also relevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

You say that 4-betting is "probably a little better" than a call and then list a bunch of reasons why it's really not. I also don't think it is possible for there to be enough history in level 1 of a tournament to be able to know when it's correct to devise a line that will let you stack off with AK for this many chips.

I hate the 4-bet even more because it compels hero to call the push.

[betgo]

I think it is pretty close between a 4-bet and a call. All the factors I indicate are kind of borderline. I thought calling was better, but when I analyze it, 4-betting gets an OK, but not great result, whatever Raymer does.

I wouldn't 4-bet without calling a push. The 4-bet may provoke Raymer to bluff push with a dominated hand.

[aejones]

i'd probably 4-bet and call a shove quickly

[RobertJohn]

After you four-bet, you’re getting ~ 1.48-to-1 to call his all-in. If you believe he would do this with like TT+ and AK, then your equity makes this break-even. If you weight it heavily towards TT+ rather than AK than it becomes slightly negative.

When he 3-bets you, you still have over 15x his raise amount (the pot size after his 3-bet represents like 8% of your stack) and you’re in position. Your expectation is probably greater than 0 in this situation with AK.

Granted you forego winning the pot immediately (the times he is bluff-raising you from the SB or will lay down a PP or a worse non-pair hand to a 4-bet), but you avoid the situation of facing a five-bet move that doesn’t give you much of an edge.

[kenny7]

First of all,I do not play this high,not even close,so if I'm sounding like a complete donk,I'm sorry.

However...what's wrong with a call here? I know Raymer is superaggressive,and def capable of making a move here,but shouldn't the fact that we get to play this hand in pos factor in? This early on,what is the value of playing an ai pot preflop w A high?

Someone said that he(Raymer) is loaded so he doesn't care,he'll just push. I can't believe that.He might be super-rich,but even if the money doesn't matter,his reputation certainly does,and he def comes across as someone who takes the game seriously,so I doubt if he doesn't care.

[shaniac]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd probably 4-bet and call a shove quickly

[/ QUOTE ]

you're not serious right?

[betgo]

In this situation, I don't think you put Raymer on a uniform range of TT+, AK. He is more likely to push AA than TT and he could have a restealing type hand. I don't think pushing like that light is a bad play or bad for his reputation or whatever.

I certainly wouldn't 4-bet AK if I wasn't going to call a push. It seems close to me between 4-betting and calling.

It is really hard to analyze without prior history and reads, but this is button versus BB, with two aggressive players, so you don't need AA or KK to go allin.

[0evg0]

blah, +cEV, -$EV?

seems like it to me

and when donkament professionals and cash players are so very opposed on a hand, thats usually the reason

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
blah, +cEV, -$EV?

seems like it to me

[/ QUOTE ]

in what way would this possibly be the case

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
blah, +cEV, -$EV?

seems like it to me

[/ QUOTE ]

in what way would this possibly be the case

[/ QUOTE ]

If gambling for your stack is $EV-. Sklansky seems to think so.

[AZplayer]

Definitely just call the reraise and feign weakness. Pot will be small enough that you can float any flop bet of T600 or so and you've still invested the same T1500 as before, but now you've seen 6/7ths of the cards.

Minor quibbles but isn't Raymer the one who 4-bet this? Also, he's in the SB not BB. Does that matter? Maybe, but maybe not but despite his LAG reputation he knows what he's doing and there is a reason he might want the BB out of the hand.

You also don't say what Raymer's opinion of hero might be; at first level, and unless they exchanged screen names, doubtful that enough hands have been played with hero on button.

You mention Raymer played a weird hand previously and lost 6k. Was it obvious to everyone? Is he steaming, or more likely, does he want Hero to think he's steaming?

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
blah, +cEV, -$EV?

seems like it to me

[/ QUOTE ]

in what way would this possibly be the case

[/ QUOTE ]

If gambling for your stack is $EV-. Sklansky seems to think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

right, but the counterweight to that is that having a bigstack (or at least, doubling the size of your stack) is +$ev because it makes for the ability to maximize other profitable situations down the line.

[Bakes]

doubtful that argument applies in this situation.

edit: not saying ur endorsing one way or another, but with pretty deep stacks and good players at the table it seems prty negligible.