FD facing donk bet on flop

[danny8]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $49.50
BB: $46.25
UTG: $61.55
MP: $55.10
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $50.00</font>
BTN: $53.60

<font color="black">Reads: </font><font color="blue">villains completely unknown - no reads at all</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($4.25) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $4.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $15.00</font>

obviously this is read and image dependant... but whats the most +ev totally readless in this spot?

if he has a pair with a &lt;A kicker im a ~45/55 dog
im quite far behind if he has A9 or a set
im quite far ahead if he has a FD
i prolly have a lot of FE if hes doing this with a mid pp or possibly 89 etc

If my kicker was higher, AQs say, i'd have no problem raising and getting it AI...but A7s im not so sure about, is just calling better?

any comments appreciated, cheers!

[Ardarandir]

hmmmm i raise this....I think there is a lot of fold equity in the raise and if we get called we might be something like a 45 to 55 dog which is not to bad...exspecially with the chance of taking a free card on the turn

[Genz]

I usually raise flop donks and I find people folding &gt;50% of the time, especially on flushing boards. His bet is pretty big though. So I don't mind a flat call and a "float" if he checks a blank turn. You can't do this against tricky villains though who'll try to make a stack-a-donk on the turn. I think a raise is a good standard line here. And it will discourage donk bets in the future. This is very valuable against aggressive opponents esp. when you raise a lot of speculative hands and like free cards...

[munkey]

I raise this with the NFD in position vs this flop PSB donk.
As Genz says on this flop he'll fold his PP or whatever he has if he thinks you missed.

If villan is decent with a set he's leading because of the fdraw and will likely 3bet you on the flop or c/r AI / lead the turn. If he's not and just calls the flop raise I'll likely check the turn IP unless the flush lands.

River is the tricky bit where I may bluff @ the pot if I suspect he was on a fdraw too or will fold to another bet and this is where villan;s hand range really matters and it's hard vs an unknown.

[ActionStan]

"Quite far behind" A9 might be a little strong. You're not in great shape, but he doesn't have a hand that can stand much heat if he has A9.

So what does a reasonable range look like here? {A9, K9, 45, A5, 22, 44, 99, TT, JJ, KdXd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, 3d5d}? Throw in QQ once in a while and 2 suited cards once in a while.

I wouldn't raise the flop myself. The stacks aren't well structured for that. You raise to $15 and he moves in. Now you have to call $33 into a $67 pot. You're getting just about the right money to call there, but no more and you are almost always calling behind. There just aren't that many draws that the villain is going to move in with. If he smooth calls and leads the turn, you have absolutely no leverage. If you had a couple more outs like Ad2d, Ad5d, or Ad3d, then I'd be much more inclinded to stick in a big raise.

I like smooth calling this flop. You have a great draw. It's pretty cheap compared to stack sizes. If I were to guess, I would think he has TT, JJ or A9 more often than he is betting a draw or second pair and that you aren't very likely to get him to fold the flop.

If he checks the turn on a blank, I'd bet. If he pots the turn on a blank I'd fold.

[mrw8419]

I def. raise, but I think I raise more on the flop, this sized raise encourages more calls by marginal hands which makes for a tricky turn. By raising more it puts villain in more of a push fold situation.

[ActionStan]

Sure, it puts pressure on the villain. I just don't think it's all that likely that the villain has something he will fold and you are in the position to have to call off all your chips behind if he re-raises. Yuck.

Honestly, I think that the pre-flop raise didn't help you much. You have sort of a raggy hand. The math generally works out better if you limp. Now you are in position to put in the last big bet if you flop a good draw and the villain makes a hand. It also gives you a better structure to smooth call the flop and move in on the turn if you happen to flop a draw. Finally, limping starts the pot small and lets you keep the pot small if you happen to flop an A.

Fundementally, you have a small pot hand that is threatening to play big. If you play it big, you are almost always going to be playing it from behind. He may be betting a draw, but most of the time he will be betting top pair or better.