150K gtd STARS -- DO YOU CALL?

[TouchDaSky]

PokerStars Game #10193494723: Tournament #51167526, $300+$20 Hold'em No Limit -
Level X (300/600) - 2007/05/31 - 00:18:34 (ET)
Table '51167526 63' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: GLF13 (28472 in chips)
Seat 2: robyx (1575 in chips)
Seat 3: Rsa87 (12791 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (16530 in chips)
Seat 5: himagain23 (35808 in chips)
Seat 6: vilela2255 (16272 in chips)
Seat 7: travi425 (49720 in chips)
Seat 8: uclabruinz (13440 in chips)
Seat 9: mindgamer (10568 in chips)
GLF13: posts the ante 30
robyx: posts the ante 30
Rsa87: posts the ante 30
Hero: posts the ante 30
himagain23: posts the ante 30
vilela2255: posts the ante 30
travi425: posts the ante 30
uclabruinz: posts the ante 30
mindgamer: posts the ante 30
robyx: posts small blind 300
Rsa87: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qs Ks]
Hero: raises 1050 to 1650
robyx said, "but i'm still horny ,like an hampster in heat"
himagain23: folds
vilela2255: folds
travi425: folds
uclabruinz: calls 1650
mindgamer: folds
GLF13: calls 1650
robyx: folds
Rsa87: folds
*** FLOP *** [7c Qh Td]
Hero: bets 2400
uclabruinz: folds
GLF13: calls 2400
*** TURN *** [7c Qh Td] [Jh]
Hero: checks
GLF13: checks
*** RIVER *** [7c Qh Td Jh] [Tc]
Hero: checks
GLF13: bets 5400
Hero: ???


What do you put him on? My line looks so weak he could very well be bluffing here. We actually only beat KJ or air.

Pretty bad river too.

[nath]

I bet more on the flop and I might bet the turn too, even jam it

[TouchDaSky]

You are right, but as played, do we call?

[cking]

this was the only part of the hand i noticed:

robyx said, "but i'm still horny ,like an hampster in heat"

anyway the way you played this hand i probably fold, dont like how you played the hand, some times we screw up and just have to pitch it when in these marginal situations

[Machinehead]

Im not sure why you didnt bet the turn. I can't really put him on AK, so I think you have the best hand, the best draw, or both.

As played, I think this is a bluff often enough to call, but its marginal at best.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Im not sure why you didnt bet the turn. I can't really put him on AK, so I think you have the best hand, the best draw, or both.

As played, I think this is a bluff often enough to call, but its marginal at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

probably checks turn as a bluff catcher since if we are ahead, not so many cards can come to beat us. This makes sense as long as you think your opponent is very unlikely to call a turn bet with a worse hand, but may bluff at it if you show weakness.


Anyway I'd bet more on the flop.

[Machinehead]

The more I think about it, theres no way I wouldn't call that river. It's like were inducing the bluff and folding to it. Bet/fold would better than check fold. If he has you beat, pay it off.

[Mench]

Bet more on the flop as everyone said, and call this river bet.

[betgo]

I like as played. I don't see why you have to bet big on the flop with top pair. The flop bet seems standard. No point in building th pot on the turn with a medium strength hand, and the turn card is dangerous. It seems like a very easy call on the river. If you induced a bluff, good.

[luckychewy]

flop should prob be bigger, turn is prob a c/f to a reasonable bet in a vacuum, riv is def a c/f. i dunno what types of hands u guys think ur gonna see turned up when u call.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
i dunno what types of hands u guys think ur gonna see turned up when u call.

[/ QUOTE ]
A small pp, Ax, a medium suited connector. Your hand is underrepresented, and villain would be stupid not to bluff the scary board.

[Bakes]

[ QUOTE ]
I like as played. I don't see why you have to bet big on the flop with top pair. The flop bet seems standard. No point in building th pot on the turn with a medium strength hand, and the turn card is dangerous. It seems like a very easy call on the river. If you induced a bluff, good.

[/ QUOTE ]

fosho, espec re: flopbet

[luckychewy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i dunno what types of hands u guys think ur gonna see turned up when u call.

[/ QUOTE ]
A small pp, Ax, a medium suited connector. Your hand is underrepresented, and villain would be stupid not to bluff the scary board.

[/ QUOTE ]

as bad as the average tournament player is, i don't think they are peeling this flop w/ a small pair or Ax(given there is no fd). i guess 7x or a random gutshot is possible but this looks a lot more like Tx than anything else to me.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I like as played. I don't see why you have to bet big on the flop with top pair. The flop bet seems standard. No point in building th pot on the turn with a medium strength hand, and the turn card is dangerous. It seems like a very easy call on the river. If you induced a bluff, good.

[/ QUOTE ]


I wouldn't say the flop bet is standard, seems like less than half the pot to me in a pot that's very crucial to the hero's stack.

[RobertJohn]

What hands would he bluff with on the river that he would forego betting on the turn given that you’ve raised UTG, bet < ½ the pot on the flop, and checked turn? With this board texture, if he were floating, he would probably be inclined to take it down on the turn given your weak sequence. The only busted draws that didn’t improve to a hand that he would probably showdown on the river with IP are two hearts (and he might have semi-bluffed that on the turn).

He would probably check behind on the turn with his weaker made hands (like KJ, AT, KQ, etc.) to induce bluffs and avoid your c/r (since you could easily have or represent the nut straight on the turn).

With the board pairing the middle card on the flop and another check from you, he bets ½ the pot.

Since he is probably rarely purely bluffing (since he would have most likely used the turn to take it down and the only wiffed draw is a backdoor flush), and most of the marginal made hands (or strong ones) he would have checked the turn with have improved to trips or filled up, and he has foregone checking down his weak top pair or turned Jack hands, I would assume this is probably not a bluff.

I think he would have to be bluffing too often in this spot than one can reasonably assume given that your equity is really low against the hands he might legitimately bet for value on this river (like AT-JT, AK, 98, 77, TT, and KQ or AQ [ maybe KJ some % of the time] - which doesn't include many weaker than yours).

He could possibly show you like A/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif or 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, but isn't that stretching it a little?

I think having some kind of read and betting more on the flop or leading turn would have made your river decision a lot easier. Knowing if he’s capable of peeling with these weak backdoor hands on the flop that have become busted flushes on the river would also help your river call/fold decision.

[johnnyrocket]

[ QUOTE ]
Im not sure why you didnt bet the turn. I can't really put him on AK, so I think you have the best hand, the best draw, or both.

As played, I think this is a bluff often enough to call, but its marginal at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea we really screwed up ne reads and stuff by checking the turn