50NL; QQ 3 bet pot; flop 9,T,J - raised all-in

[Lego05]

This hand happened a while ago, but I was just looking through the database and now I'm not sure I made the correct decision here.

Villian is 18.18/15.91/1.5 over 44 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($86.15)
CO ($51.75)
Button ($9.25)
Hero ($50)
BB ($67.70)
UTG ($41.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, CO calls $5.50.

Flop: ($17) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $11</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $43.75</font>, Hero ???

EDIT:

LOL...

Never mind. When I looked at again today I made a math error and thought I was getting only 1.67 to 1 when I'm actually getting like 2.2 or something like that to 1. EASY CALL.


Getting 1.67 to 1 I think it looks like a fold but it's kinda close I think. And if he would ever do this with AJ it's easily a call.

[Nonfiction]

tought spot but I think I call this. You have 10 outs vs a set or AA (KKKK QQ 8888), 6 outs vs KK (KK 8888), and are ahead of AK. if he has AKh he has a [censored] of outs vs you, but you have 2 of his straight outs, 1 of his heart outs, and all of his K outs.

[muddydog]

His range here has to be JJ QQ KK AA AK I think because the AK knows he's also got outs to the straight:

Pokerstove says you have 56% equity with all the dead money I think you have to call, there's a lot more ways he can have AK than the other hands.

Board: 9h Td Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.911% 55.23% 01.68% 17497 532.50 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 43.089% 41.41% 01.68% 13118 532.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

[Peter Harris]

AKh wouldnt suck:

Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.141% 54.14% 00.00% 536 0.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 45.859% 45.86% 00.00% 454 0.00 { AhKh }

[Nonfiction]

[ QUOTE ]
AKh wouldnt suck:

Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.141% 54.14% 00.00% 536 0.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 45.859% 45.86% 00.00% 454 0.00 { AhKh }

[/ QUOTE ]
it would suck if it was me in that spot with QQ on stars, lets put it that way.

[filsteal]

This is a call even if his range is nothing but sets and overpairs.

Board: 9h Td Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.043% 31.38% 02.67% 6834 580.50 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 65.957% 63.29% 02.67% 13785 580.50 { 99+ }

And we only need 31/(31+31+39) = 30.7% equity to call.

[muddydog]

Another thing you might want to consider here is your bankroll related to the level you are playing. I open up my game a lot and I make some thin calls raises etc. and if you are under rolled it can hurt a lot when you lose five of these in a row, your ability to withstand variance should factor in here somehow.

[filsteal]

If his roll is so short that he's considering folding getting better than 2-1 odds with almost certainly at least 40% equity in the pot, then he should move down in stakes, like, yesterday.

[Lego05]

LOL.

Never mind. When I looked at again today I made a math error and thought I was getting only 1.67 to 1 when I'm actually getting like 2.2 or something like that to 1. EASY CALL.


Getting 1.67 to 1 I think it looks like a fold but it's kinda close I think. And if he would ever do this with AJ it's easily a call.

[muddydog]

[ QUOTE ]
If his roll is so short that he's considering folding getting better than 2-1 odds with almost certainly at least 40% equity in the pot, then he should move down in stakes, like, yesterday.

[/ QUOTE ]

After looking again at the money in the pot you are obv correct, this is definitely a call regardless.

[filsteal]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL.

Never mind. When I looked at again today I made a math error and thought I was getting only 1.67 to 1 when I'm actually getting like 2.2 or something like that to 1. EASY CALL.


Getting 1.67 to 1 I think it looks like a fold but it's kinda close I think. And if he would ever do this with AJ it's easily a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

1.67-1 would make it close. I still think it's a call, if you think there's any chance whatsoever that he would do this with any AK other than A/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Also, 1.67-1 would also make his shove more of an overbet, which might tilt his range a little more away from sets (though maybe not on this board).

[Peter Harris]

A/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif plays this way all day long too mind, and thats about the same equity as AhKh.