Flat calling here sucks, DUCY?

[Fiksdal]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.10/$0.25 Blinds
5 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

SB: $5.30
BB: $11.00
<font color="black">Hero (UTG): $52.75</font>
CO: $30.30
BTN: $35.80

<font color="black">Reads: </font><font color="blue">Villain is 26/24/3.5 over 25 hands

I have been active and raising a lot of hands.</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Khttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $4.00</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $52.75</font>


Do you?

[vixticator]

I can live with any outcome and would do same.

[ReNoRyan]

very sexy

[Harry Fong]

The move is ok i guess but worst case scenario is your whole stack is being decided by the flip of a coin. If your bank roll can handle the variance than go for it.

[jonyy6788]

std

[Fiksdal]

I am a bankroll nit, trust me it can handle it. If it's +EV I'm doing it.

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
I am a bankroll nit, trust me it can handle it. If it's +EV I'm doing it.

[/ QUOTE ]Me too I play NL10 with a $300 roll--used to play NL25 but cashed out $1,000 after that whole UIGE fiasco.

[Harry Fong]

two words, Game On.

[fingersmith]

OK, someone explain to me why this is a standard move. If you give him a 3betting range of like TT+, AQ+, but a calling range of QQ+, AK, you're behind his calling range. Does the FE with the other hands (TT, JJ, AQ) really make up for it? What am I missing? Yes I'm a noob, etc.

Edit: if its simply a question of stoving it vs. his range, and it comes out +EV, then someone just say so

[EMc]

Is there any other real way to play it? YOu are doing this with AA nad KK often too, no?

[Fiksdal]

I'm probably doing this with AA/KK 100%, unless I have a special reason to believe he is 3betting me with just air or something.

[vlerk]

I usually 4bet pot. Is pushing always better?

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually 4bet pot. Is pushing always better?

[/ QUOTE ]wuts ur play when u raise to 16 or 1w/e and get a caller and the flop come Q97?!?!!?

[vlerk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I usually 4bet pot. Is pushing always better?

[/ QUOTE ]wuts ur play when u raise to 16 or 1w/e and get a caller and the flop come Q97?!?!!?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess i push any flop. What can he call me with he wouldn't have called a preflop push with?

[Paul Thomson]

i flat call here because i don't 4-bet preflop...but then again i know how to play poker postflop...so flat calling here doesn't suck...DUCY?

[EMc]

[ QUOTE ]
i flat call here because i don't 4-bet preflop...but then again i know how to play poker postflop...so flat calling here doesn't suck...DUCY?

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing OOP in a 3 bet pot in a RIO situation is the suck...DUCY? This hand is great to push PF for a lot of reasons.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i flat call here because i don't 4-bet preflop...but then again i know how to play poker postflop...so flat calling here doesn't suck...DUCY?

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing OOP in a 3 bet pot in a RIO situation is the suck...DUCY? This hand is great to push PF for a lot of reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

i check-raise alot of flops that miss the Villain &amp; Me. I think this a decent alternative to pushing preflop.

And I know all the reasons for pushing preflop but calling isn't terrible. It's not as great oop but if ur confident that Villain will continuation bet close to 100% here, than it doesn't really matter. DUCY?

[brian8065]

I like it.

[badatmath]

I decided to give this a try just now:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($19.30)
MP ($12.60)
Hero ($24.75)
Button ($33.20)
SB ($20.35)
BB ($37.45)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $0.90, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $24.75</font>, SB folds, BB calls $21.25.

Flop: ($50.50) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: ($50.50) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($50.50) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $50.50

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has As Ad (one pair, aces).
Hero has Kc Ac (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins $50.50. </font>

[Fiksdal]

Dude the push in OP is partly justified by a slightly loose/agressive villain. Check the stats before you felt 100bbs with AK.


Btw, could someone who are good at math and structured hand analysis do a estimation on the $EV of a push in OP hand assuming some fairly standard 3bet and push-call ranges?

[badatmath]

Ok, now ICY. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[BoerfSt]

Its ok vs this villain..but not something I like to do.

[Landonfan]

Does villian know you shove AA/KK here? Most 25NLers just 4-bet those, so unless he's seen you do it before, I don't know how apt he is to believe it. I still like the play against a loose opponent though, just don't be surprised if JJ calls, maybe even TT if he's really loose.

Also, what's the play if villian is solid?

[crovax4444]

what happens if you have 140 BB stacks and same reads? How deep would you go before you'd 4-bet or call

Crovax

[monkeymaps]

I agree with OP villian in this hand is very LAG his 3 betting range is prob pretty wide esp given OP said he has a LAG image as well. AK isnt going to play well at all post flop given our position and villian so I dont realy like just calling. This is good if villian is a second level thinker you might even get called by a worse hand IMO.

[monkeymaps]

another ? assuming 100BB stacks does anyone ever 4 bet less than AI seems pointless not just go AI?

[Atlanta Andrew]

[ QUOTE ]
I decided to give this a try just now:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($19.30)
MP ($12.60)
Hero ($24.75)
Button ($33.20)
SB ($20.35)
BB ($37.45)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $0.90, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $24.75</font>, SB folds, BB calls $21.25.

Flop: ($50.50) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: ($50.50) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($50.50) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $50.50

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has As Ad (one pair, aces).
Hero has Kc Ac (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins $50.50. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand is significantly different than OP's because hero is in position. Be more inclined to call 3-bets with AK when you have position on villain, since you have more of a post-flop advantage.

-Andrew

[Triggerle]

[ QUOTE ]
what happens if you have 140 BB stacks and same reads? How deep would you go before you'd 4-bet or call

Crovax

[/ QUOTE ]

I, personally, cut it off at about 60-70bb although that could be adjusted on a case by case basis if I play very unusual villians. Folding this with 100bb stacks has become standard for me at the micros.

[ama0330]

yay variance

i hope you assigned him a 3bet range before you got all buckwild and crazy. fwiw i wouldnt do this because i am a nit and a coward.

[That Fish]

Assuming I did the math right.

Assume 3bets about half his normal raising range (10% here).
equity
Hand 0: 46.906% { 22+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 53.094% { AsKc }

He calls with top 3%
equity
Hand 0: 60.215% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.785% { AsKc }

So about 30% the time he's got a hand good enough to call the push.

70% of the time hero wins $5.35 for an EV of 5.35 x .7 = $3.68

When called hero wins $30.5 40% of the time = $12.2
When called here loses $30.5 60% of the time = $18.3
or a net EV of -$6.1 when called, which happens 30% of the time or - $1.83

Net EV = 3.68 - 1.83 = $1.85

When stack sizes are such that .3 x (.4s - .6s) = 3.68 it's neutral EV. So stacks &gt;$62 make this -EV. Or about 250BB

Hand ranges can change quite a bit before this approaches -EV land.

So how tight does he have to be to make this incorrect?
60/40 dog when called QQ+ AKo/AKs, include JJ and it's 62/38 so close enough for this estimate.

fold% x 5.35 = Call% x 6.1
but Call% = 1 - fold%.
-&gt; fold% = 6.1/11.45 or 53%

So he must then have a hand good enough to call 1/2 the time, or about top 5.3% of hands.

He needs to be 3bettting here with 88+, AJs+, KQs, AK, and calling the push with QQ+AKo, AKs for this to be neutral EV.

I'd assume he'd need a pfr of &gt;15 before this is good...

[Lordy]

I don't think this move is profitable at NL25 without any light 3-betting history. People just don't 3-bet light that often and the standard range is like JJ+/AK....

[jessyj07]

I've found that alot of the LAG players like to minreraise with hands they want to play just to have the aggression in the hand with marginal stuff like 88/KJs/etc. A big reraise like in the OP IMO is more often a big hand than not. Of course this will vary from player to player but it's a trend I've noticed the last week.