NL50 - misplayed combo draw?

[Peter Harris]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

<font color="black">Hero (SB): $64.70</font>
BB: $50.00
UTG: $47.20
CO: $48.50
BTN: $49.55

<font color="black">Reads: </font><font color="blue">Villain is 23/8/2.7 over 96 hands; felted JTo on JT9 flop only to be rivered. semibluffed flop and turn with 1 card OESD A8s on 679x and checked A river. So capable of semibluffing and felting made hands.</font>

should i felt flop? I was concerned on the turn bet i could be vs a strong made hand and/or a better FD, and if i hit a 5/spade i may not have had the odds (call 20 to win 70 i thought at time).

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($2) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">CO bets $1.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $15.50</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $7.50

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($34.50) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $20.50</font>, [i]Hero...[/b]

[Maneh]

the odds here are close...

But i think that:

shove flop &gt; cold call

[Angrymoog]

I think you might have raised too much on the flop, but beside that, this is a tough spot. This being a limped pot, I really dont like putting all this money in on a draw. I thinkt he right play is to call like you did and fold the turn.

I bet however that if we assign a reasonable (wide) handrange here, im guessing it will look like were a favorite. But I also feel villains hands have to be in the upper edge of his range.

[Peter Harris]

what do you make him for - 2 pair, straight, set? is a bigger FD in his range? let's triangulate a stove range to see whether flop call or calling turn bet is goot...

[wikemang]

I'd felt this on the flop, but as played, turn is either a fold or shove IMO. I'd lean toward a fold.

[Angrymoog]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you make him for - 2 pair, straight, set? is a bigger FD in his range? let's triangulate a stove range to see whether flop call or calling turn bet is goot...

[/ QUOTE ]

I second this request (no stove available or id do it)

I really feel like due to this being a 5 man flop, his range is almost precisely what you posted above, including combo draws and better flush draws.

[Peter Harris]

and thats why i only called the check-3b by villain on the flop.

tell ya what, just ending a session. gimme 30mins and i'll do it then.

[Abramovic]

This is just a quick go (not many combinations of better FDs)

Board: 2h 3s 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.051% 39.95% 00.10% 16216 40.50 { 7s4s }
Hand 1: 59.949% 59.85% 00.10% 24293 40.50 { 66, 33-22, Qs9s, Qs5s, 63s-62s, 54s, 63o-62o, 54o }

[brian8065]

I would guess the villian is not on a flush draw, but rather a made hand that will lose to a flush or a straight. He is trying to price you out, which he has done well on the turn. You should fold.