Turned 9 hi flush OOP in multiway pot

[Proofrock]

First hour of the $650 WSOP sat on Stars. Comments on all streets appreciated. The only note I have on Villain comes from a few hundred hands of $2/4 NL (6max) where he appeared to be a mediocre/bad LAG.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t2545)
UTG (t2440)
UTG+1 (t1545)
MP1 (t2780)
MP2 (t2710)
MP3 (t2835)
CO (t2540)
Button (t2595)
SB (t2520)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t90</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t90, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t60.

Flop: (t375) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t375) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t250</font>, UTG calls t250, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t660</font>, Hero calls t410, UTG folds.

River: (t1945) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t1175</font>, Hero ...?

[djk123]

I would fold preflop and lead out on the flop looking to 3 bet. But as played, I just call the river.

[Proofrock]

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I would fold preflop ...

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This is probably the right thing, but their s00ted and almost connected, stacks are pretty deep, and I'm closing the action (though I will be OOP w/a marginal hand in a multiway pot postflop which sucks).

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and lead out on the flop looking to 3 bet.

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If it was heads up or 3-way this would be my default line. I'm not sure how much I like it with so many people left to act -- what's your argument for playing this way instead?

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But as played, I just call the river.

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Against what range of hands is this more profitable than shoving or folding the river?

[stevepa]

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But as played, I just call the river.

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Against what range of hands is this more profitable than shoving or folding the river?

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A range composed of hands that have you beat and hands that will fold to a raise.

[Proofrock]

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But as played, I just call the river.

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Against what range of hands is this more profitable than shoving or folding the river?

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A range composed of hands that have you beat and hands that will fold to a raise.

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Not sure if this was a serious or trite answer, but in case it was serious, what I mean is: Villain has t600 left here, so he's only folding air to a shove. If I'm ahead enough to call but not enough to shove, then it must be pretty close between c/c and c/f, yes? If not, explain my faulty logic.

(btw, FWIW I think the only air you see here is the very rare naked king of spades. So, if he's only folding air and his range is composed of only hands that beat me or are folding to a raise, and he has air almost never given the action, then a check/call would NOT be better than folding here)

[Dunkman]

You're getting 2.7:1 to call, but to raise you need to have the better hand over half the time when he calls. So to call you need to be best 27% of the time, but to raise you have to be good over 50% of the time.

[bigballz]

I don't see how you can do anything besides call here

[Proofrock]

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You're getting 2.7:1 to call, but to raise you need to have the better hand over half the time when he calls. So to call you need to be best 27% of the time, but to raise you have to be good over 50% of the time.

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I know that's the "correct" answer in general, but here, I think it should be applied differently (if this is dodgy, let me know):

Given the action, Villain should almost never have air here.
Villain will fold nothing but air if I shove. Therefore, it's more like I have the choice: get 2.7 to 1, or a little over 2 to 1. Given these choices, I need 27% equity vs. his range or 33% equity vs. his range, respectively.

[Proofrock]

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I don't see how you can do anything besides call here

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I think folding is a real option here, but I'm sort of a nit.

[Proofrock]

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You're getting 2.7:1 to call, but to raise you need to have the better hand over half the time when he calls. So to call you need to be best 27% of the time, but to raise you have to be good over 50% of the time.

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I know that's the "correct" answer in general, but here, I think it should be applied differently (if this is dodgy, let me know):

Given the action, Villain should almost never have air here.
Villain will fold nothing but air if I shove. Therefore, it's more like I have the choice: get 2.7 to 1, or a little over 2 to 1. Given these choices, I need 27% equity vs. his range or 33% equity vs. his range, respectively.

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I messed this up -- check/shoving would still be +EV if I have 33% equity vs. Villain's range, but it's only the MOST +EV if I have at least 50% equity vs. his range.

[Proofrock]

I guess this hand wasn’t terribly interesting, but for what it’s worth, here’s my analysis. I think it's actually a pretty useful hand-reading exercise at the very least.

I have a feeling that I'll get a fair amount of disagreement here -- if you disagree, please explain where you disagree with my analysis. If this is too long to read, I've included my summary at the bottom.

Preflop: I should fold. I’m not good enough at poker to play this hand in these circumstances. I call with any suited connector (and occasional offsuit connector), suited ace, any pocket pair, and some suited 1 gappers, but OOP w/deep stacks in a multiway pot a suited 3-gapper is just bad.

Flop: This is a great flop for my hand. I can either lead out, with the plan of 3betting if I get raised, or I can check/raise or check/call. If it was heads up or a 3-way pot, I’d definitely like leading, since a raise from the original preflop raiser is more likely with a wider range of hands (against which I may even have some fold equity with a 3bet). If the preflop opener raises me it would hopefully clean up some outs for me from anybody left to act in late position.

However, in a four way pot on a mid/low coordinated board like this, if I do happen to get to bet/3bet all-in on the flop I’m probably against a set / straight / occasionally two-pair or one of the few other combo draws. I have 40%-46% equity against this range, so it’s not a terrible result, but I don’t think it’s ideal either. More likely I’ll get at least one caller and no raisers (overcard flush draws are less likely to raise here given the multiway pot, the depth of stacks, and the tighter-than-usual play that seems to permeate the early stages of the $650 WSOP sats on Stars), which leaves me in an uncomfortable spot on the turn.

Check/raising the flop maybe isn’t a much better plan, but there’s the added benefit that it plays out easier – I think I’d rather call a shove here than have my shove called, and if my check/raise is called on the flop the pot should be just about right for a turn shove. It also traps more money in the pot if there’s a bet and a call, and can possibly win the pot if it checks to button who takes one stab at the pot with air. Also, I don’t hate it if it gets checked around, as I get to draw for free. Check/calling seems like an all around bad idea, since I’m OOP with a big draw to a lot of non-nut hands in a multi-way pot.

Turn: Leading is clearly best here. When Button makes the tiny raise, IMO he most likely has either has a pretty strong non-flush hand that wants to get to a cheap showdown and plans to check behind on the river unimproved, a huge hand that wants to build the pot. A bluff seems absurdly unlikely (unless he is getting fancy with the naked king of spades) given that the flop checked through, a scare-card hit, and there’s already been a bet and a call. The big non-flush hands he could have are a set, straight, or two-pair. However, none of these makes sense given the flop action. It’s a drawy flop in a multiway pot, he has position, so he should be betting pretty hard with any of these hands. Also, preflop and flop play pretty much rules out AA, and he would be much more likely to smooth-call with the lone king of spades and dump all other draws. If he has anything other than a flush here, I’d expect to very rarely see a foolishly slow-played straight.

Now consider the two cards he could have that give him a flush already: 82s,83s,84s,42s, and 43s are the only flushes I beat. Of these, I’d only expect to *maybe* see 4s3s, and with this he would have almost definitely bet the flop. However, he could very easily have: KsQs,KsJs,KsTs,QsJs,QsTs,JsTs,Ts8s. The combo draws are big enough that he could bet the flop with them, but could also take the free card and check behind with any of them. That’s 7 reasonable combos of flushes that beat me, and 1 unlikely and unreasonable flush that I’m ahead of.

During the hand it seemed like a close choice between 3betting and calling the turn, but after thinking about the hand more carefully I think the turn may (a very counter-intuitive at first glance) actually be a fold.

River: He bets 2/3 of the pot, which is also 2/3 of his stack. This looks like a pure value bet. I should call if I have 27% equity vs. his range, but IMO there’s no way I can possibly have that given my analysis above and the way we got to the river. Anyway, I called because I had a flush and lost to Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Summary: I should fold preflop. Given that I didn't, I think check-raising the flop is a little better than leading. After analyzing the hand I think I should fold the turn to the mini-raise, even though it didn't even enter my head as an option during the hand. The river seems like a pretty clear fold, as he's bluffing nowhere nearly enough to make a call profitable given the line we took to the river, and given the flop play especially there aren't enough worse hands in his range for him to be value-betting worse often enough to make a call profitable.

[djk123]

Preflop: Agreed.

Flop: I like leading better. With such a big draw, I wanna play a big pot and don't mind getting it all in on the flop. I think leading will get the most money in on the flop as I see the flop going checks all around quite a bit, which is poopy since it will be hard to win a big pot now. Also, I would consider being oop after check/raising and getting called much more awkward than being oop after betting and getting called. The pot is much bigger when we check/raise and get called, but our hand isn't worth that much with only one card to come. Oh and I don't really understand why you'd rather call a shove than have your shove called. I'd always rather have some fold equity.

Turn: agreed

River: stinks, but I'd call too.

[Proofrock]

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Flop: I like leading better. With such a big draw, I wanna play a big pot and don't mind getting it all in on the flop. I think leading will get the most money in on the flop as I see the flop going checks all around quite a bit, which is poopy since it will be hard to win a big pot now.

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If it checks around, I think it will be hard to win a big pot no matter what, and on the flipside I've been able to take a free card.

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Also, I would consider being oop after check/raising and getting called much more awkward than being oop after betting and getting called. The pot is much bigger when we check/raise and get called, but our hand isn't worth that much with only one card to come.

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That's true, but I was mostly considering the ratio of stack size to pot size. If I lead it will be to something like t350 or so -- if I get one caller, then there's about t2000 in my stack and t1000 in the pot. This is okay when I hit on the turn, but not as good when the turn bricks. Assuming I lead for t600-t700, I almost certainly have to call a shove anyway, and if I get called again and brick the river I guess I just check/fold (?). However, this is really no worse than check/raising the flop to t1100 or so and shoving any turn where I don't hit with the option of making small bets if I do, except that it's easier for me to make two significant bets to help with FE. However, almost any hand that calls the flop c/r is probably going to call the turn shove, so no strong reason to prefer this to leading.

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Oh and I don't really understand why you'd rather call a shove than have your shove called. I'd always rather have some fold equity.

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I may be misapplying this or over-thinking this context, but I would prefer to call a shove instead of shoving myself in the following circumstance:
If Villain only raises my initial bet with hands that are calling a shove. If this range is tighter than the range of hands that will shove over a c/r expecting to have some FE, then I'd prefer he put in the last bet, since I'm calling the flop either way. Whether this is the case or not here I'm not sure -- I expect it's close enough that it probably doesn't matter too much.