99 Pukey Spot late in the Warmup

[Jurollo]

This is the absolute cutoff here for easy call/laydown. I think this is SUPER close either way. Villian is new to the table 2 hands ago. Average stack is 170k ish. I honestly don't know what the optimal play is here.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t3000/t6000
(Ante: t600)
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
WPThero: t304482
UTG+1: t82212
MP1: t396688
MP2: t61370
MP3: t200104
CO: t85679
Button: t101056
SB: t152408
BB: t266726

Pre-flop: (9 players) WPThero is UTG with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#cc0000">WPThero raises to t16000</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises all-in t81612</font>, 7 folds, WPThero ?????????

[Bond18]

Vs TT+/AK your 31.1%

add AQ and ur 37.2%

I'm gonna call u about 33% vs his range.

112,000 in pot with 65,000 to call looks like a slim fold. Then again this is assuming a normal, proper tournament, which the warm up is not...

[djk123]

Yea this is tough. If he is shoving TT+ AQ+, it's a call. If you take out AQ, it's a clear fold. I think most people would push AQ here so I'd call.

[Soulman]

Since it's so close, it's really not that hard though is it, especially since stack sizes doesn't really come into play here (fold = 46 BBs, call and lose = 36 BBs).

[namespace]

[ QUOTE ]
Vs TT+/AK your 31.1%

add AQ and ur 37.2%

I'm gonna call u about 33% vs his range.

112,000 in pot with 65,000 to call looks like a slim fold. Then again this is assuming a normal, proper tournament, which the warm up is not...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your range might be too tight Bond, given villain's stack. Would you say that someone with this stack would shove 88+,AQs+,AQo+?

That gives us around 40% equity, so around 3:2 vs 1.7:1

I probably call here...

[curtains]

I would probably fold in the heat of the moment. But ok looking above at the mathematicians, calling looks more and more reasonable. Seems like just a math problem where you have to accurately guess your opponent's range.

Any timing tells on his allin?



More I think about it I'd call. I'd push loose in his spot because you have 8 billion chips. Even UTG I expect super ginormous stacks to have looser ranges than usual, thus I would widen my reraising range. Meanwhile I'm pretty tight, who knows if this guy is.


Flip a coin?



Misread stack sizes in original hand, your stack isn't quite as large as I first thought. Anyway it's irrelevant, I still don't know what to do.

[nath]

i call because i'm a station

i do think it's super close though, and his position has me worried, but whatever, he has AK and AQ a lot too, and 88 if he's antsy or you're opening wide

[Jurollo]

He instapushed.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
He instapushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

That grossly lowers the chance that he has AA IMO. It probably lowers the odds of 88 as well, because it would usually require some thought before just pushing.

In any case the speed of his allin is good for the calling option IMO.

[Ansky]

looks like a fold

[THEOSU]

i would think if anything the speed of his push would lean this more towards a fold, because JJ+ are far more likely, while AQ is discounted.

[Jurollo]

I really think AQ is in his range like all the time here.

[THEOSU]

you think AQ instapushes over a UTG raise?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
i would think if anything the speed of his push would lean this more towards a fold, because JJ+ are far more likely, while AQ is discounted.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes but AA is discounted some also, and KK should be some % less likely. I think hands like AK,QQ,JJ are the ones that get boosted %s after the insta allin.

Someone calculated the result against AK and AA-TT as being 31%. Eliminating AA and KK from that range gives us 35.4% equity. I also think eliminating these hands is relatively fair if we are also going to completely eliminate AQ and 88.


Ok unfortunately it looks like we have to win more than 35.4% of the time for it to be +EV. So umm, probably fold. Good thing that's what I'd probably do in the heat of the moment. I should think less.

[Jurollo]

with 13.5 BBs in this tournament, yes.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
with 13.5 BBs in this tournament, yes.

[/ QUOTE ]


Oh really?? Well if you think that then it should be a clear call.

[bigballz]

my instinct says fold without looking at any math and that's probobly what I'd do in game