I have draws.

[shaundeeb]

I've been redic nutty but getting really god hands for my table and our stack sizes raising 3 times an orbit since I came back from sitting out 4 orbits ago.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t11125)
BB (t7250)
Hero (t17025)
UTG+1 (t2825)
MP1 (t9375)
MP2 (t14450)
MP3 (t19975)
CO (t15250)
Button (t9800)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls t300, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls t250, BB calls t200.

Flop: (t1200) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t6950</font>, I time down and do what.

[Jurollo]

I get it in because of the backdoor flush draw. I think those extra outs push this to a scenario a call/allin

[stevepa]

I would guess this is a fold. Too many heart draws that have you beat and I think you see sets/2pair at least as often as top pair.

[Soulman]

Meh, like steve said heart draws and combo draws steal outs from you, looks like a pretty clear fold.

[namespace]

I say fold too. No doubt he's shoving with a flush draw which takes away an out.

The backdoor flush hits like what, 24:1'ish?
Not to mention you're a huge dog going in if he does have 2 overs to the nut flush draw.

[Proofrock]

I'm not sure why you'd be timing down here, since this seems like a pretty clear fold to me. I have a hard time finding a range where you're getting the right pot odds to call (you're about a 2 to 1 dog against a range of sets, two pair, pair+OESD, T9, pair+FD, OESFD, and overcards+FDs). The only one-pair hands I think you'd see are 8hxh or (8,7,5)6, which cuts down on your equity.

Also, if there are any callers/raisers after you, you shouldn't have more than 25% equity in a 3-way pot.

[shaundeeb]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure why you'd be timing down here, since this seems like a pretty clear fold to me. I have a hard time finding a range where you're getting the right pot odds to call (you're about a 2 to 1 dog against a range of sets, two pair, pair+OESD, T9, pair+FD, OESFD, and overcards+FDs). The only one-pair hands I think you'd see are 8hxh or (8,7,5)6, which cuts down on your equity.

Also, if there are any callers/raisers after you, you shouldn't have more than 25% equity in a 3-way pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

have you played the mil where tp= nuts?

[Clayton]

i jam this like all day in a tournament with rebuys, but villains range here, though wide, is still beating yours i think. yes you are ahead of some retarded one pair hands that comprise a part of his weighted range, but an equally similar occuring part of his range is retarded draws that happen to be ahead of yours. throw in stuff that has you drawing to 11 outs and it's one of those fruit wheel/blackjack equity hands where, at best, you are 50%

[shaundeeb]

yah clayton if we are 50/50 vs his range it's an easy shove with the overlay we get from PF money and the donk bet. Which is the conclusion I came to that I was prob around 50 vs his range and getting overlay plus the image I get for being that nutty going allin with 10 high

[Clayton]

i think 50% is a tad too much, which is why i fold

im not entirely good with pokerstove fun-times, but i think ur equity is like 40%

[RobertJohn]

[ QUOTE ]
i think 50% is a tad too much, which is why i fold

im not entirely good with pokerstove fun-times, but i think ur equity is like 40%

[/ QUOTE ]

I kind of like doing these calculations, so here is my attempt.

I don't know how likely him having these hands are, but this is a reasonable estimate I guess.

OVERPAIRS/TOPPAIR (JJ-99, A8o, 86s, K8o)

your equity = 43%

BIG FLUSH DRAWS (AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah8h, Ah6h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, JhTh)

your equity = 29.2%

MADE HANDS: (Set, 2-pair, and Made Straight) (88-77,55,87s,75s,64s)

your equity = 29.7%


You’re getting 1.26-to-1 on a shove, so you need 44% equity to jam here (assuming the SB folds).

If you think that he has category 1 hands like 30%, big flush draws like 50%, and the made straight, set, or two-pair 20% of the time, your equity = 33%.

You can weight those however you want according to your read, I just took an estimate.

This calculation doesn’t account for the times that the SB overcalls with a strong hand too. Obviously that would suck.

[Clayton]

u sir are a useful poster

[Clayton]

and LOL booya deeb

[shaundeeb]

I don't think SB ever has a strong hand here his lead was too small for a strong hand. Also, just noticed you can prob take out 99/10s of his range as the freq is soo low with a 9/10 accounted for. I also think he has a big flush draw less often here then people are mentioning.

[shaundeeb]

[ QUOTE ]
and LOL booya deeb

[/ QUOTE ]

his idea is good I think his weighted numbers as way off.

err missed hte part he said you can weight it yourself I'm deep in 2 things and helping someone win a wsop seat I'll try to put my guestimates on later.

[NoahSD]

Should be a pretty easy fold.

[curtains]

Seems like a very clear fold to me.