Warm up JJ spot

[Bond18]

Just moved to table a round or two ago. This is villains first open that i know of. SB is gigabet. When people 4X pre i tend to assign them a range of like 99-QQ, AK. On flop i'm now behind TT/QQ, and i question how much 99/AK will keep things up. What should my line be?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t400/t800
(Ante: t50)
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: t26560
UTG+1: t13125
MP1: t28188
MP2: t22258
Hero: t40205
CO: t42013
Button: t22050
SB: t31388
BB: t22027

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to t3200</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls t3200 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t4850)</font>, 2 folds, SB calls t2800 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t8050)</font>, BB folds.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (t10850, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets t7200</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero?

[roo400]

do not call preflop if you're folding that board. I push preflop FWIW and push this flop too. I don't understand your reasoning in calling pf and then not knowing what to do on that board. What was your plan?

[Exitonly]

i usually just shove/minraise here, whichever you think would look weaker at the time.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
do not call preflop if you're folding that board. I push preflop FWIW and push this flop too. I don't understand your reasoning in calling pf and then not knowing what to do on that board. What was your plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think his decision on the flop is call or raise, folding is definitely not one.

edit: rereading the OP, seems he is considering folding.... i don't really think thats an option.

[Bond18]

[ QUOTE ]
do not call preflop if you're folding that board. I push preflop FWIW and push this flop too. I don't understand your reasoning in calling pf and then not knowing what to do on that board. What was your plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if you jam pre you only get called by the very top end of his range at these stacks where as calling in position here when you get under card boards TT/99 is going to stack off a lot.

[Bond18]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
do not call preflop if you're folding that board. I push preflop FWIW and push this flop too. I don't understand your reasoning in calling pf and then not knowing what to do on that board. What was your plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think his decision on the flop is call or raise, folding is definitely not one.

edit: rereading the OP, seems he is considering folding.... i don't really think thats an option.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, you can't fold this flop.

[RichC.]

I was watching when this hand went down, so with that, I think as you played it, it was fine and I would have done the same play.

[Randers]

why is folding not an option?

[Exitonly]

i should say, that without a really strong read, i dont think folding is an option. It'd have to be a pretty ridiculous hypothetical player for me to just fold to one bet on that flop, after hvaing just called pf.

[djk123]

I can't see doing anything but shoving, no? In my experience the warm up is the softest tournament online. Versus an unknown I think it would be a mistake to fold here.

[curtains]

I think I'd move allin and hope for the best.

[Flatlanman3]

[ QUOTE ]
why is folding not an option?

[/ QUOTE ]

it is if you do it preflop. not on this flop once you called that raise

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why is folding not an option?

[/ QUOTE ]

it is if you do it preflop. not on this flop once you called that raise

[/ QUOTE ]

well this doesn't really make any sense but w/e.

I'd shove this flop, though calling is certainly an option w/ psycho lagtard gigabet behind you.

Shoving preflop was mentioned above and is a horrific idea- we are way too deep for that.

[luckychewy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why is folding not an option?

[/ QUOTE ]

it is if you do it preflop. not on this flop once you called that raise

[/ QUOTE ]

well this doesn't really make any sense but w/e.

I'd shove this flop, though calling is certainly an option w/ psycho lagtard gigabet behind you.

Shoving preflop was mentioned above and is a horrific idea- we are way too deep for that.

[/ QUOTE ]

i tend to agree w/ bolded part, but in a tournament like the warmup where people just play mind blowingly bad i don't think it's as bad as it usually would be, though i certainly think calling is fine as well.

as for the rest of the hand i agree w/ the other two points you made, though w/ a fd on board i think i lean towards shoving because i can see ppl in this tournament convincing themselves into a call w/ ak/aq/99/88 where as w/ no fd they would just fold figuring you have to have a ten(lol).

[mikeJ]

From his position, I think his range is weighted towards 99-JJ/AQ, he still will have 88/77/AJ/AK/QQ+ and some random crap in his range, just w/ less frequency. I agree that it's a shove, cause it will be difficult to extract from 99 anyways, but AK, and the lesser weighted AQ/AJ are probably not putting anymore money in unless they improve to beat you. Folding is really out of the question cause he does not need to be betting overcards/77-99/other random stuff that often to make shoving &gt; folding.

Board: Td 4d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 84.621% 81.97% 02.65% 14607 472.50 { AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-TT, AdKd, AdQd }
Hand 1: 15.379% 12.73% 02.65% 2268 472.50 { JcJh }

Postflop, you have to risk 24938 to put him AI.

When called by above range, (.846-.154)(-24938) + .154(10850) = -15586

If he folds, you win what's in the pot, or 18050.

x = fold rate

To make shoving &gt; folding...

Breakeven cEV = 0 = x(18050) + (1-x)(-15586)

==&gt; x = .463 or 46.3% is required fold rate. The above range contains 23 combos of hands, so if he's betting another 23 combos of hands or so, then raising &gt; folding. I think he is easily folding more than 50% of the time.

I ignored gigabet, but I don't think that'll impact the calculations much.