ub bounty final table hand

[luckychewy]

talked this over w/ some people but got no decisive answer.

5 handed, payouts are 1950, 2400, 3300, 4650, 7800.

stacks are utg(200k), co(200k), btn(25k), sb(60k), and bb(me-79k after posting).

blinds 2500/5k and co has been very active, easily most active at the table. utg folds he opens to 13k(standard for him), btn and sb fold...how wide do you push in my spot? do the shorter stacks influence your decision a lot?

[nath]

If he's very active I should say it would work often enough to be profitable with almost anything.

I'm never sure of the exact math in this spot, though.

[Soulman]

This comes down to opening ranges and calling ranges. Since he's been very active, his opening range is very wide, say top 30%. Let's further assume he calls top 10%, which is pretty wide, 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo. If he calls this wide and it's profitable to push ATC, pushing seems good.

With these numbers, I have the EV of pushing ATC at +3.7k. The EV fluctuates pretty hard with raising/calling ranges though. At 30% opening, 15% call, it's -4.5k. 12% call is the cut-off if he's opening 30%. If he opens say 40%, he has to call 17% or wider for a push with ATC to be unprofitable.

In short: unless he knows you'll push ATC and call very wide, pushing ATC is good.

Note: this is cEV only, no consideration for ICM, stack sizes etc. Too lazy for ICM now...

[betgo]

In this situation, he is probably opening something like 40% of his hands into the short stacks, and maybe calling about 20%. Gambling is slightly disadvantageous at the final table.

You should have plenty of chances to resteal. I would probably wait for an ace, pp, broadway, most kings, or most uited gappers. You could also push any two cards with one card 7 or higher or somewhat connected or suited, maybe about 80% of your hands. I wouldn't literally push ATC.

[luckychewy]

thx for responses. they are on base w/ basically what i was thinking at the time, which is somewhat reassuring. soulman, good analysis but i think cEV!=$EV at this point, at least to some extent. assuming grafyx is as good at math as i think he is, i need ~74% fold rate for this play to be break even after accounting for ICM(what my ICM is if i just fold to his raise, if i resteal and he folds, if i resteal and win, and if i resteal and lose) and using the equity when called of the hand i actually had which was K6o under the assumptions he calls 66+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo which is ~10% of hands.

[Soulman]

Yeah, I just went into automatic 'calculate cEV-mode', ICM obviously plays a big part here.

Interesting side note: according to grafyx' math, the difference between cEV and $EV math here is about 7% if he opens 30% and calls 10% (need 67% FE for cEV and 74% for $EV).

If he opens wider and still only calls top 10%, that seems pretty exploitable. Don't know if he realizes that though, I've seen quite a few of those at FTs. Without a good read/previous hands, I'd probably put his calling range as wider than 10% if he opens much more than 30%, since he should know he'll be played back at.

[Exitonly]

i took a shot at the ICM (but i just woke up).. i had to do it two different ways because i couldn't decide if i should use $0 as the 5th place payout or $1950... I THINK it's supposed to be $0, so the first number should be the correct one.

folding: 3,434
doubling: 4,760
losing: 0

folding:3710
doubling:4833
losing: 1950



(x * $4760) - (1-x * $0) = $3434
(x * $4833) - (1-x * $1950) = $3710



$4760x = $3434
x = $3434/$4760 = 72.14%

$4833x -$1950 + 1950x = 3710
$6873x = 5660
X = 5660/6873 = 82.35%


aka, we need 72% equity to breakeven on a shove here. so, fold a wide range of hands. (don't shove ATC) (edit: oops, i just assumed 0 fold equity, so, this isn't ... right)

edit edit:

OK, what i did, was figure out if CO never folds, so if he never folds to the shove, then we shouldnt be shoving a wide range at all (like,KK+), BUT now i'm going back and adding inthe fold equity variable, idoubt we have a whole lot, but it'll change it a bit.

[sinderg]

i gotta say with your stacks and the small stacks about ill be pushing any 2 hear

[Exitonly]

after talking to grafyx about this hand for a while, i think it's unlikely that even this guy that had been opening frequently is goign to raise-fold more than 50% of the time after raising into the 3 short stacks at the table (including a 25k stack). So i think shoving any 2 is really bad, i dunno where exactly i should start shoving cause this was kinda confusing to do the math on and i had to take a break; but you need a pretty good hand imo and i'll come back later with a more specific answer

[luckychewy]

sounds good exit, ty. grafyx originally suggested 77+ AT+ KQ or something along those lines, but that seems a tad too tight.