Live final table hand from a 1k buyin. Bluffing into a dry sidepot

[Cornell Fiji]

This is an old hand but I want to start get some HSMTT discussion started.

1k buy in tournament at Turning Stone.
600,000 chips in play. I have 210,000 chips with 10 players to go. Top 20 got paid.

My image is Laggy if not Superlaggy

Blinds are 300/600 with a 50 chip ante.

Hero is in the BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif

MP open pushes for 17,000. Button (tight player, second in chips with 115,000) calls. Hero calls.

I did not expect the Button to call, he was playing fairly tight. After his call I thought about just dumping my hand but I believed that I would be well above MPs range.

Flop (39,400)
J/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero bets 40,000

If called I intend to check/fold UI. If Button pushes I turbofold.

[spyu]

If there is no side-pot I almost always take a free card here because you have a pretty good draw. If SB is checking a decent made hand he's making a mistake by letting you draw. Also I'd hate to triple up MP and keep him in the tournament when his 33s hold up and you bet MP off his 99. I just don't think there is much positive in betting here.

[djk123]

i really don't understand this. why no shove preflop? if you are flat calling cuz u are wary of the flat caller's hand, why this flop bet? I definitely shove preflop tho.

[Jeremy517]

[ QUOTE ]
i really don't understand this. why no shove preflop? if you are flat calling cuz u are wary of the flat caller's hand, why this flop bet? I definitely shove preflop tho.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shove preflop to a tight player who has an M of 82? What?

[spyu]

[/ QUOTE ]
Shove preflop to a tight player who has an M of 82? What?

[/ QUOTE ]

[nath]

I hate not shoving preflop. And I hate leading the flop intending to fold two overs and a gutshot getting something like 3.3 to 1.

[djk123]

yea there's tons of money in the pot, and it's not like he has to have aa or kk.

anyways, given that cornell flat called, this flop bet makes no sense to me. the only reason to flat call here instead of raising or shoving is if we think the caller is very strong. If we think this, then what would he ever fold here? Basically only AK while aa,kk,qq,jj,tt all call or shove.

[spyu]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate not shoving preflop. And I hate leading the flop intending to fold two overs and a gutshot getting something like 3.3 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not leading out he had position and bet. Which is exactly why I wouldn't bet because what you said when you lead out.

[timex]

I really think that this has to be a fold preflop and its likely not close.

First of all, MP is shoving with an M of like 12 from MP, is this like HJ or UTG+2?

I don't know too much about live players, but from what I have heard, they generally tend to be tighter than they should be late. So his range is likely even thinner than just unexploitable shoves. Button must know this, and as long as he doesn't know the 10-1 rule, his range must be even tighter, unless he is the type to "put someone on AK"
Regardless, without looking at any of the math, I think call is definitely not right. If you know that he wouldn't flatcall with AA, shove preflop seems fine, if not, I just fold.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not leading out he had position and bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Read again.

[bigballz]

I'm in the fold preflop camp. Also, I HATE the flop lead into a dry sidepot. esp when you are almost surely behind the orignal shover now.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's not leading out he had position and bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Read again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats my fault. I mistyped it the first time around and quickly edited... apparently not quickly enough.

Edit: I will add my thoughts on this hand after some more responses. I will say that I think that fold pf > reraise in this situation.

[NoahSD]

Preflop's read dependent, obv, but definitely folding's definitely better than calling. Maybe shoving's better than folding--depends on MP's range and on how you interpret BU's cold call instead of a shove. Plus, he might be really scared of busting, in which case he'll fold crazy tightly.

[TheNewf]

Betting the flop is definitely terrible. Preflop seems close because that's an enormous shove. The caller likely has a huge hand, but I don't think it's unheard of that the caller folds QQ to your preflop shove here, so I think it's still pretty close. Depending on reads and stuff folding preflop is probably best.

[KUSH]

I think this is a shove preflop. Theres 40,000 chips in the pot and the button only has 115,000 total (98,000 behind) so its not a huge overbet to shove here.

[shaundeeb]

umm blinds are 3k 6k not 300 600 right? which makes this an easy PF shove, as for how played its live he's going to give you free cards anyway take them, cuz live nits love to check it down to knock someone out. Also, he can easily find a fold with another AK and JJ etc if he's as tight as you say PF.

[Cornell Fiji]

blinds are 300/600.

That means that there are a ton of HSMTT players who advocate getting 200 bbs in pf with AKs. I think you guys are getting a little bit too used to online pushbot final tables.

[Exitonly]

the average stack is 100bb's w/ 10 people left?

[shaundeeb]

[ QUOTE ]
blinds are 300/600.

That means that there are a ton of HSMTT players who advocate getting 200 bbs in pf with AKs. I think you guys are getting a little bit too used to online pushbot final tables.

[/ QUOTE ]

what tourney is this then wtf....

[Cornell Fiji]

I think they were 1 hour levels... level 9 at TStone is 300/600/75 link (http://www.turningstone.com/gaming/poker/2007heartlandtour.php) (i might have gotten the antes wrong.)

If you exclude the button and myself the avg stack among the other players was 35k

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
blinds are 300/600.

That means that there are a ton of HSMTT players who advocate getting 200 bbs in pf with AKs. I think you guys are getting a little bit too used to online pushbot final tables.

[/ QUOTE ]

you say that like that's the general advice given around here, and these players would all stack off for 200bb's.... that's not the situation at all!

Theres a TON of money in the pot, it's not unreasonable to think the button would (or, could) fold a lot of his hands in this spot (not like you gave us any brilliant reads about the players).

i dunno, i just thought you first response before you edited was a bit condescending and didnt make sense to me.

[shaundeeb]

also what does this flop change then PF if anything it hits the lower part of his range hard while the top part is an OP.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
blinds are 300/600.

That means that there are a ton of HSMTT players who advocate getting 200 bbs in pf with AKs. I think you guys are getting a little bit too used to online pushbot final tables.

[/ QUOTE ]

you say that like that's the general advice given around here, and these players would all stack off for 200bb's.... that's not the situation at all!

Theres a TON of money in the pot, it's not unreasonable to think the button would (or, could) fold a lot of his hands in this spot (not like you gave us any brilliant reads about the players).

i dunno, i just thought you first response before you edited was a bit condescending and didnt make sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

My first response did not read how I had intended it, that is why I quickly edited it.

---------------------

As far as reads go:
We had been at the final table for ~20 minutes. Both villains in the hand had been at the other table when we were 11+ handed and I had not played with them all tournament. That said, I had raised 50%+ hands since we had 25 players left (first the bubble then we were short handed) and people had been talking about my aggressiveness. While I had tightened up at the 10-handed final table my reputation probably preceded me which is why I described myself as laggy/superlaggy and which is why I had incomplete reads on the villains.

Preflop: The button had been pretty tight and I was surprised by his smooth call. It is possible that he was smooth calling because he was willing to dump his hand if I shoved but it is also possible that he was calling in order to slowplay his monster hand. I think that he probably would have reraised with TT/JJ/QQ because he would not really want to see a flop with those hands against me. I had his range as 66+/AK/AQ but thought it was more likely that he had 66-99/AQ/AK or AA/KK because he did not isolate.

Keep in mind that the average stack other than the two of us was only ~35k. I was the only player who could bust the button and I was the only player who really could damage his stack. Similarly, I had 1/3 of the chips in play at a ten handed table! I do not feel that the 'block' that I would be gaining by winning the 34k in the pot or even by sucking out on the button and getting up to half the chips in play would be worth the risk of losing half of my stack and my ability to bully with impunity.

Because of my reputation as a crazy lagtard (which I am not sure he had heard but I would assume that he had because I sent a lot of people muttering '[censored] fish how could he raise with that crap' as they went to the rail) I thought that he would be more inclined to call me if I shoved pf with pretty much any hand that he called preflop with.

I did consider dumping my hand preflop due to my comfortable chip position and the huge reverse implied odds if I hit and he spiked his set.

On the flop I still thought he had 66+/AK/AQ. I thought the origional shover probably had 33+/KQ/A9+. I bet for two reasons 1) to knock out the villain's mid pair in an attempt to get hu against MP's KQ/AQ/A9/AK and 2) to not allow the button to bet me off the pot with his 66-99/AQ

I thought that the button was never going to bluff-raise or call with a hand other than TT+. After the flop I looked at his range of 66+/AK/AQ from which I had already slightly discounted TT-QQ (hande he would be more inclined to isolate with) and with a T/J on the board and an A/K in my hand it seemed that 66-99/AK/AQ were more likely than TT+ and if he had TT+ then I would know right away.

[Cornell Fiji]

cliffs:
For those of you not wanting to read that full explanation I think that, in a nutshell, shoving is wrong because the advantage of adding 34k to my stack or flipping to add 125k to my stack <u>when I already had 1/3 of the chips in play</u> was not nearly as big as the risk to losing my dominant chip position.

I would love to hear someone who is advocating a shove to address this specific point.

[NoahSD]

There's a difference between getting 200 BBs in with AKs when the action goes 4 BBs/12 BBs/36 BBs/200 BBs and then when the action goes 20 BBs/call. A HUGE difference.

Your assessment makes it sound like a really easy shove, actually. If you think AQ is in his range, not shoving is pretty silly.

[TheNewf]

this is just weird. Who open shoves 30 bets with 33+, A9+, KQ?? Especially live players?? I mean given your reads this is a turbopush. I'm really confused as to wtf is going in this hand.

[Cornell Fiji]

^
The thing is... who open pushes 30bbs at all at a 10 handed final table? I can't put him on a really tight range because he would want action with those premium hands but putting him on a wide range is odd too. I believe that 33+/A9s+/KQ are in his range, how they are weighted is up to interpretation and at the table I was unsure about how the button was interpreting the MP player's range.

[adanthar]

well, for starters, I would fold PF (although it's close between folding and shoving, but I hate calling). then, I would check/fold the flop and it isn't particularly close.

you didn't hit a 'good' flop or a 'good' draw. people keep thinking that 2 broadway flops when you have AK are somehow a good thing. they're not, and you never actually have 10 outs even with far less threatening PF action than 'shove 30 BB, call'. in fact, unless MP likes pushing A9o for 30 BB *and* button likes coldcalling with 99, there is no conceivable outcome that is any good for you on this flop and no particular reason to go forward with this hand. (edit: not to mention that live, and with the dry pot, button isn't even betting 99 at you if you check, so you have a decent chance at getting him to fold later on if you really really want to.)

but hey, I hope you proved me wrong by hitting a queen.

[luckychewy]

pf is debatable imo, hard to say with such weird action as i'm generally unaccustomed to dealing w/ 30bb open shoves. it's also hard to run any numbers because who knows wtf these guys ranges are like. if i had to guess i'd say fold&gt;shove&gt;call. but all very close and i could easily be convinced otherwise.

post flop though, your line is very bad. mainly because of what shaun said about how even the bottom part of his range is connecting w/ this flop(jj/tt) and i don't even know if he folds qq, though he probably will. mayyyybe kk(probably not) and definitely not aa. i would def c/f on this board.

[betgo]

I don't understand the flat call. Push or fold preflop.

I also don't understand the bluff into the dry sidepot with ace high and a weak draw.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
cliffs:
For those of you not wanting to read that full explanation I think that, in a nutshell, shoving is wrong because the advantage of adding 34k to my stack or flipping to add 125k to my stack <u>when I already had 1/3 of the chips in play</u> was not nearly as big as the risk to losing my dominant chip position.

I would love to hear someone who is advocating a shove to address this specific point.

[/ QUOTE ]
Fine, then don't shove. Then fold. Why flat call?

I do agree that with 1/3 of the chips in play you don't want to take a big gamble if it isn't WTA.

[shaundeeb]

[ QUOTE ]
cliffs:
For those of you not wanting to read that full explanation I think that, in a nutshell, shoving is wrong because the advantage of adding 34k to my stack or flipping to add 125k to my stack <u>when I already had 1/3 of the chips in play</u> was not nearly as big as the risk to losing my dominant chip position.

I would love to hear someone who is advocating a shove to address this specific point.

[/ QUOTE ]

if hes a nitty as you say etc hes folding QQ and AK to your shove so hes only calling with AA/KK which is such a small part of his range esp with an ace and king accounted for. So often you go from having 1/3rd the chips 3 handed to 40-45% of the chips 9 handed with an even bigger gap between 1st and 2nd. Also the AKs will imrpove your image for PF resteals etc.

[Cornell Fiji]

Looking back on the hand I believe that a preflop fold was certaintly correct but I do not think that the pf call is as bad as everyone is making it out to be as the button would be looking to check down a lot of his hands as I was the only player at the table who could come close to busting him (and the prizes were something like $5000 for 10th and 52k for first). I think that if I wanted I could have often seen 5 free cards. While the button had been playing noticably tight he was not an uuber nit and he had chips to call the 17k shove with all top ~5% hands.

I think that a shove would be really bad. I think I might have failed in the OP to make it clear what exactly my image was. When the bubble came around I raised precisely 100% of all hands preflop and I added 50k to my stack stealing blinds and making continuation bets. While I had tightened up at the final table my reputation was superlaggy and I probably would have been looked up if I shoved. It was the wrong time for me to gamble because I had such an unbelieveable relative position with 350bbs at a table where, excluding the button and myself, the avg stack was 55bbs. I am very surprised that people are advocating a shove here as the chips I gain are fairly meaningless and the chips that I could lose are pretty significant.

The button did indeed fold to my flop bet and since this hand played out 8 months ago I have no idea if I won the pot or not. In hindsight I do believe that the flop bet was pretty bad but my thinking at the time is that if I could push the button off of 55-99 that I could win the pot uncontested if the openshover had AK/AQ/A9/KQ and that this 50k swing would be a pretty big boon to my stack.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
The button did indeed fold to my flop bet and since this hand played out 8 months ago I have no idea if I won the pot or not.

[/ QUOTE ]
Uh... what?

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The button did indeed fold to my flop bet and since this hand played out 8 months ago I have no idea if I won the pot or not.

[/ QUOTE ]
Uh... what?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.
I showed up at Tstone at 11:00pm the day before the tournament and played shorthanded 30/60 through the night until the tourney started. This hand probably took place around 10pm but the final table did not end until 4:30am the next morning so it was 40+ hours for me on no sleep.

I mean, I know I took 2nd to Brent Roberts but the results of this hand escape me. I scribbled down a bunch of hands to post here during the tournament and I had this hand in a crumpled ball in my room at school and found it as I was packing up to go home. I remember playing the hand and I remember the players and my reads on them. I remember that the button folded to my bet and I think that the shortstack had a midpair... or was it AQ... I am really not sure. I probably knocked out 6 of the players at that final table so they kind of all blur together.

[timex]

I see how people can forget hands... but how can you forget a hand like this?

[nath]

Wow, even when I play on no sleep and go deep, I usually remember the important hands. I'd definitely remember all the details of one I knew I would want to ask about months later. A lot of it is a blur, but not the stuff I think is going to be important to discuss later.

[Cornell Fiji]

...I guess 2p2 has really ingrained 'the results are irrelevant' into my psyche.

I did get my chip stack up to ~280k with 7-8 players left before dropping back down to around 120k... I took out the 19 year old kid when I won a race with 88 against his AQ... and then I took out Pete The Beat (I remember that hand for sure because he violently turned up his KJ on a jack high board only to look sick when I rolled over AJ) to put me back to 190k... I took out the mideastern guy when he shoved 25bbs 3 handed with J9s and I woke up with pocket aces. Nope, I simply have no idea if I won this hand or not what I do know is that I lost some Sklansky bucks by not folding preflop and then by betting the flop so I guess in the long run game of poker we can say that I lost this one although I very well might have isolated AQ for a big win. I think I recal the button saying he had 99, but then again I am really not sure of that either. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[KUSH]

you're an idiot the only play here is to shove preflop if you play the hand in any other way (calling LOL or folding LOL) you suck

[gobboboy]

I don't understand. There's no way in hell the stacks are this deep... and then someone shoved 30 bb's preflop? It makes no sense.

And yeah, reraise to isolate preflop. Calling is terrible.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand. There's no way in hell the stacks are this deep...


[/ QUOTE ]

-There were 204 entrants.
-We had 3,000 starting chips
-The levels were 1 hour long
-We stated at noon
-This hand took place around 11pm. Counting breaks + dinner break that make it level 9. Is 9 hours really that quick to eliminate 194 players, the majority of whom are from upstate new york and think that Al Krux is really good at poker?
-Level 9 at tstone is 300/600.
-The tournament got to the final table so fast because I personally knocked out 25 players /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Of all the weird things in this post I am unsure why this has to be reexplained.


TO things that actually matter... I just can't see, after reflecting about this hand, how pushing 200bbs preflop and risking my dominant chip position could be the best play. With me being so deep isn't this a spot where +cEV /= +$EV ?

Are most people answering that this is a shove because it seems so unique to you to be at such a deep final table spot or, after considering the fact that I had 350bbs at a final table, do you still think that is the best play?

[betgo]

OK, so if you push and lose the sidepot, you still have 150xBB. Maybe the other big stack will fold some pps to the push.

If you don't push, I still don't see why calling is better than folding.

If the caller has AA/KK and flat called, wanting you to play, you still double him up often when you make TPTK. You also go to the felt with TPTK versus a set.

[Superfluous Man]

Shaundeeb is right. It's live and he's a nit, so even if he has QQ-TT here, he's going to fold it. And if he doesn't, you're flipping for a virtual lock on first or second.

This is all just huge FPS.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
I just can't see, after reflecting about this hand, how pushing 200bbs preflop and risking my dominant chip position could be the best play.

[/ QUOTE ]
Because people fold a ton of hands to 200BB pushes. Hands that beat you. And you get massive overlay vs. the all-in.