25NL: QQ on drawy flop gets 3bet big

[jimpo]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($24.95)
MP ($10.65)
CO ($27.25)
Hero ($27.45)
SB ($30.45)
BB ($39.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $1.

Flop: ($2.85) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $13</font>, Hero...?

Villain is 45/5/infinity after 20 hands. Is this a clear fold or not?

- flop action looks like a fold to me. It looks like he is trying to extract max value, not to make me fold
- villain stats speak for calling / pushing. He could be donkey enough to do this with AJ type of hand or aggro enough to do this on a draw. Then again, only 20 hands.

[C4LL4W4Y]

I don't know about you, but I don't fold QQ for a BI on this board against an opponent that's super-aggro postflop.

[Superman26gt]

Given the range I came up with it's a shove..

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.507% 52.44% 00.06% 36862 45.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 47.493% 47.43% 00.06% 33338 45.00 { 88-77, AJs, AsTs, KsQs, KJs, KsTs, QJs, JTs, J8s-J7s, T9s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, T9o }

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the range I came up with it's a shove..

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.507% 52.44% 00.06% 36862 45.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 47.493% 47.43% 00.06% 33338 45.00 { 88-77, AJs, AsTs, KsQs, KJs, KsTs, QJs, JTs, J8s-J7s, T9s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, T9o }

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't feel I have good enough reads to trust he is going to lead small - reraise "value-raise" non-push amount with say QJ after only 20 hands logged. There's a lot of variance in postflop aggression factor number for 20 hands (out of which he has played 9).

[Superman26gt]

Ok, that's reasonable.

What do you think his range is here?

[SwingVelvet]

what's a BI

[SwingVelvet]

this range is way too broad

def. take out all the KJ, QJ, KT

[ssdex]

this is a fold......... with my experience, even though hes an aggro monkey, aggro monkeys like to lead small so overpairs will re raise, then they know you have an overpair so they want to build a big pot now, he plays 45 percent of hands, he probably flopped 2 pair minimum....... I just think this is a bad shove spot, hes committed and you have no fold equity, its a flip if hes drawing....i say meh and fold

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
what's a BI

[/ QUOTE ]

buy-in

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, that's reasonable.

What do you think his range is here?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty hard to think he would play like this with a draw. I would see for example nut flush draw reraising all-in instead of leaving $10 behind, in order to maximize his FE. That would leave him with basically better hands and AJ and not a good spot at all.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.652% 31.65% 00.00% 20055 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 68.348% 68.35% 00.00% 43305 0.00 { JJ, 88-77, AJs, J8s-J7s, T9s, 87s, AJo, J8o-J7o, T9o, 87o }

Even if you add KJ you are still behind 47-53. Now, if you add all nut flush draws and enough several combo-draw/pair+draw type of hands (pretty hard to figure out a complete set of these) you start to get ahead of his range but as I said I don't think those are that likely the way he played on the flop.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.686% 55.69% 00.00% 53475 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 44.314% 44.31% 00.00% 42555 0.00 { JJ, 88-77, AKs, ATs-A9s, A6s-A2s, J9s+, T8s+, 96s, AJo, J9o+, T9o }

[RollTide77]

To me, those stats aren't large enough to mean much. He initially limped so its not JJ. Could be 77 or 88 since he went ahead and made the RR call PF hoping to get lucky. Could also be a draw from a donkey. I'm tempted to push but that seems a bit extreme if I'm crushed. But I also can't fold TP on this board where I only see myself losing to trips at this point. I probably make the call and see what happens on the turn.

[youthies]

If you just call here, over half your stack is in the middle, with a lot of turn cards that will make you nervous.
I push this, though I'm not sure how right that is.

[Machavelli]

I wouldn't even consider stats after 20 hands. I think you can let this one go. Best case you're probably racing a combo draw and worst case you're practically dead. Fold.

[Superman26gt]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't even consider stats after 20 hands. I think you can let this one go. Best case you're probably racing a combo draw and worst case you're practically dead. Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT