50NL: AA - Facing raise on flop

[yeesh]

Villain is 14/9/2 over 100. I'm playing about 19/16

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

<font color="black">Hero (SB): $50.00</font>
BB: $65.15
UTG: $119.75
MP: $50.75
CO: $166.30
BTN: $64.60

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, BB calls $2.00, CO folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($5.50) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4.70</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $14.50</font>, Hero?

[Nick C]

Well, I would either call or 3-bet, but that's partly because if I was the BB, it's entirely possible I would just have a worse PP here on this raggy flop. And, of course, Villain isn't me.

But he is a guy with TAG stats (rather tight TAG stats, I'll admit), and while he could easily have a set, and while the checkraise is a largish one by NL50 standards, it's also probably pretty much a standard pot-sized checkraise for this Villain. And if we're folding AA here, well, then theoretically he could do this with any hand he's playing and have a hugely profitable play.

Theoretically speaking, anyway. (And of course, if he did that often enough, he wouldn't have 14/9/2 stats and we'd catch on if we played against him often enough. And, meanwhile, he probably doesn't really expect you to fold AA, since most players wouldn't. However, he probably does expect you to fold AQ, and protecting his vulnerable hand could be the whole point of his play.)

[SirFelixCat]

I'm thinking either 3betting or stop-n-go on the turn is the right play.

Granted his stats are saying this is either a set, AKs, or a mid PP...I think folding here is horrible fwiw...

[jk1986]

I'm just 3bet shoving here on this draw heavy board. You'd be suprised at the number of worse hands that will call a shove here.

[wikemang]

3bet AI

[geekylucas]

I'm seriously thinking about ditching my hand here, feels like villain hit a set is protecting the pot on the draw heavy board.

Is this monsters under the bed mentality?

[filsteal]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm seriously thinking about ditching my hand here, feels like villain hit a set is protecting the pot on the draw heavy board.

Is this monsters under the bed mentality?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. A 9 or a non-setted PP is way more likely than a set here for villain.

[JavaNut]

Villain is only getting 1:1.75 calling on the flop and he is not last to act. He has something other than suited connectors. Medium to high pp or two broadways is the least. If he has a 9 he has a set, if not then he has a big pp. Perhaps a raise to $25 ($10 more to him) to clear things out.