50NL - TPTK+FD vs a nit 200BB's deep

[BevillTheDevil]

villian is about a 12/2/3.5 after 50 hands...i felt like i completely played this hand wrong so whats your line here??

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $13.82
UTG+1: $25.45
CO: $32.33
Button: $21.20
Hero: $116.15
BB: $98.45

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
3 folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $6</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($12.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $11</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $22</font>, Hero ?

[SurferEd]

May be a leak, but I shove here

[barryc83]

Heh weird spot. He appears tight but thats a small sample. Hes repping AA big time though. I definitely wouldn't raise the flop bc 1) you only fold out hands you beat and 2) with 2 streets of betting left you can still get stacks in.

I feel like you're freerolling him or hes got AA (KK possible but unlikely obv). I'd call flop and if the diamond hits I'd just lead the turn, if not I'd call his bet as he appears to be a min bettor. Same on the river, if I hit, I just push bc no one lays down AA esp donks. By check calling down I guess people might argue that you're losing value, but that min raise to $22 scares the [censored] out of me and do you really think hes gonna stack off with QQ? I doubt it. If he checks behind on the turn or something, I will lead the river for value.

EDIT: Obv your first raise to $11 is standard and good for value, I mean dont push over his minraise.

[RUDIKS]

Assuming his range is AK, KK, AA

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.110% 38.03% 16.08% 3012 1273.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 45.890% 29.81% 16.08% 2361 1273.50 { KK+, AKo }

If we take out AK,
Hand 0: 40.038% 39.70% 00.34% 1572 13.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 59.962% 59.62% 00.34% 2361 13.50 { KK+ }

I think I shove here because on the turn pots ~60 (assuming you flat call) and you have 90 behind, and i doubt you're folding. Seeing a blank turn just decreases your equity.

[Antinome]

b3bai flop

[Chomp]

The problem I have with pushing here is that we have almost no FE over better hands - he's not folding AA/set, and I think worse FDs/air are a small part of his calling range.

What I don't know though is whether the dead money in the pot after the flop c/r/3b compensates us for being a 2/1 dog when called. Can anyone work this out quickly at the table?

I think I lead flop here. I think you get called by all sorts of odd stuff here, and if you are raised, you can push or peel. I don't know which of those would be better and look forward to others' thoughts on it.


EDIT: Sorry, I'm talking crap. He can't have a set here. D'uh. Yeah. freerolling.

[Angrymoog]

Looks like you're on a freeroll. Push all in on the flop.

[DannyOcean_]

Either AK, KK, or AA if this is a nit. There are 3 possible AA's and 6 possible AK's, and 1 KK. He will call regardless, so should you push?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

9,900 games 0.031 secs 319,354 games/sec

Board: Ks 2d 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.924% 37.70% 19.23% 3732 1903.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 43.076% 23.85% 19.23% 2361 1903.50 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

In a heartbeat push. EEEZZZZZZ

[wildzer0]

This looks like a shove to me.

[renotime]

i'm getting all my money in

[Seeeno]

What do you think about Call Flop / Push any Turn(maybe if a Diamond hits check, let him bet again then push, or if he checks behind, push any river)?
before you say "OMFG NOOB DONT ONLY CALL FLOP GO PLAY CS" pls explain to me why pushing &gt;&gt; calling.

[barryc83]

Why does everyone wanna shove, you get pwned by his range when you shove or fold out all hands you beat in case hes bluffing.

Hes never folding AA/KK/AK even if the flush comes in so why push here? If he calls with AA/KK were a dog and AK we are freerolling. Hes never folding any of these 3 hands. Even if he min bets the entire way with AK and we dont hit we still only chop. The discussion is more than zomg TPTK+NFD. If you hit the flush and open push he will call if his range is really AA/KK/AK.

[kolotoure]

I like barryc's thinking here although I will probably still push for metagame or something

[Angrymoog]

[ QUOTE ]
Why does everyone wanna shove, you get pwned by his range when you shove or fold out all hands you beat in case hes bluffing.

Hes never folding AA/KK/AK even if the flush comes in so why push here? If he calls with AA/KK were a dog and AK we are freerolling. Hes never folding any of these 3 hands. Even if he min bets the entire way with AK and we dont hit we still only chop. The discussion is more than zomg TPTK+NFD. If you hit the flush and open push he will call if his range is really AA/KK/AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you taken a look at the enumerations posted above? Hero is a slight favorite, so why not get the money in? As opposed to being forced into tough situations in a big pot when the turn blanks.

[Leviathan101]

When facing the first bet, I think it's more +ev to get call and play from there. He more than likely pays off with AA, KK and AK, if you hit a diamond. His flop bet is giving you over 4:1 to call, meaning its profitable to just call and try to spike and fold everything you miss and win nothing when you hit. Factor in the fact you split with AK sometimes, and will suck out on AA by spiking a King, I think a call is probably better here. If you cram, you also get no value out of weaker hands, cause you might be able to get another bet out of QQ.

Villian looks like a nit but might be card dead at the moment.

I like calling the $3 bet here. As played, I probably just cram it. Although you have 4:1 odds to call AGAIN, so you can just call to try to spike and it's profitable. Cramming probably never folds out AK or AA despite the fact your play looks EXACTLY like a set.

Calling here makes later streets harder to play but is probably more +ev.

If you just call and spike a king, I would check. If you catch a diamond, I'd lead for like 1/2 the pot to avoid scarying off AK or AA (if he can even fold it.)

[wikemang]

I would much prefer a lead on this flop with the intention of B3BAI. As played, I agree with Leviathan, we should simply call, hope we spike a king or a diamond on the turn, and go from there.