50NL: misplayed AKs

[Supwithbates]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh))

SB: $48.80
BB: $50.00
UTG: $50.00
MP: $41.55
CO: $53.65
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $147.85</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $2.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.00</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $4.00

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($12.75) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10.00</font>, CO calls $10.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($32.75) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($32.75) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets all-in for $37.65</font>

Villain is a fish and is probably calling this 3bet lite b/c it was the second straight time I had 3bet his raise

[Nick C]

I don't see where you misplayed it so badly, but I do probably bet like half of Villain's remaining stack on the turn, hoping to get called by AT or KQ or something, with the idea of getting Villain's stack in on the installment plan.

Simply pushing on the turn seems like another option.

[derosnec]

on the river. that's a pretty strong line by him, especially with flush draw completing.

You're behind: 6 combos for TT/QQ, 1 for JJ, and 4 for JT. 6 combos of QJ. That's 17 combos you are behind (I'm ignoring pocket 4s).

You're ahead: 6 combos of AJ. 8 combos KJ. And say about 3 combos of flush draws (though that's probably pushing it) of say Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d (I'm really hesistant to use flush draw combos because the Ad, Kd, Qd, Jd are already accounted for). Anyways, 17 total combos. But does he really push AJ/KJ on the river? I don't think so. So let's weight the AJ/KJ combos by reducing them by 50% (I would reduce it more actually). So you are ahead of probably 10 combos.


So, ahead 17 times versus behind 10 times.

(did this on the fly, so might have miscounted a hand or two)

[Brian O'Nolan]

Wow you didn't really fold this did you? That WOULD be pretty bad... if you lose here it's just a cooler. You just can't go around folding the nut flush in a reraised pot for 100 BB. Turn check is alright depending on how often he'll bluff river.

[Supwithbates]

I'm pretty sure he's rarely doing this for value with a hand I beat

[tarheeljks]

why not bet the turn?

[Brian O'Nolan]

"villain is a fish" and you don't think he's pushing AK or any flush here? WTF?

[coordi]

probly completed a small flush, or checked his AK on the turn to suck you in on the river. If you lose to a boat its just unlucky. insta call.

[RUDIKS]

I snap call this, and bet the turn for that matter, 100% of the time.

[MJBuddy]

I'm on the betting the turn train here. I want as much of their money in the pot when I'm ahead as possible.

[neuroman]

Villain has $37 left on the turn? I'd just bet his remaining stack. If he's slowplaying a full house, fine. But the board seems drawy enough you'll get called by all the worse hands in his range, I think, given your description.

Do you think his range includes suited connectors like J9 or T8? Would he raise those hands?

[derosnec]

oops, I screwed up my earlier post

actually there are 9 combos of AK that I didn't account for (plus 2 more JT combos).

So, you're ahead roughly 19 times and behind roughly 19 times, though I think he is pushing trips a lot less often.

You need to win 55% here. So it looks like a fold.

Couple of disclaimers that could change this to a call: I didn't account for AA/KK because I doubt he pushes the river. Also fishies don't generally raise QJ/JT, but I don't know this opponent, so I can't rule them out, but you might weigh them less.

[tms]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is a fish

[/ QUOTE ]

call all day